Most issues are partisan: Democrats and liberals on one side vs. Republicans and conservatives on the other. The issue of gay marriage is not partisan. It's generational.
Young conservatives support gay marriage by almost the same percentage as young liberals. The under 40 in America were raised on MTV whose Real World has at least one token gay in every season. To the young opposing gay marriage is like opposing left handedness. They think their parents and grandparents are out of touch.
That said, it's old(er) people who vote. Last year California voters struck down gay marriage... California! If it is put to a vote in Iowa there is no doubt gay marriage will lose.
If Democrats do the right thing and keep it off the ballot they will surely lose seats in the next election. Perhaps they'll even lose their majorities in the statehouse.
This will reinvigorate the far right Christians in the Republican party. It will become a rallying cry for organizing and financing Republican candidates.
Make no mistake: This is a victory.
Unfortunately, this is a victory could very well backfire.
Update: In Iowa the legislature must support a constitutional ammendment in two separate sessions (years) and then the people can vote on it.
Majority Leader Gronstall says he won't allow a vote this year. That means they'll vote on it in 2010 and 2011. It will be at least 2 years before this appears on the ballot.
Two years is not enough to enlighten Iowans and two years is not enough time for old people to die off. Iowa, like California, will have legal gay marriage overturned.
Please let me be wrong about this.
If you put gay marrage on the ballot I think more "under 40" will vote, just because of the issues, and as you put it "how out of touch the older generation is".
ReplyDeleteBut then again, more young adults might MOVE TO Iowa during the next two years as a result of this measure (which that state desperately needs) and who knows, it might be enough of an infusion of new voters to make a difference! Let's keep our eyes on the prize - and know that though the arc of the universe is long... it bends toward justice.
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ReplyDeletegovernor made a statement in Jan, that he thought there should be a special session to save marriage.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/2n2fer
yuck.
steve, long time listener first time caller: appreciate your nuanced analysis always.
millenial generation doesn't even comprehend this as an issue. I'm close to millenial, and i only can empathize that others understand it.
The IA supreme court decision was a startling revelation of how obvious the issue is.
When I was married 6 months ago, our concerns were how our parents got along, and how we could morally join and support this institution that was denied to our friends. I teared up tonight when the court decision was read, because it is such a relief to have something I feel as clear truth acknowledged by our indirectly elected government.
As someone tasked both personally and by committee with mobilizing young voters, I fear that we will not be ready for this for 5-10 years. 3 will be a stretch.
I think, as a waaaaaay over 40 voter, I understand your concerns, Steve. I am delighted Iowa passed it, but I think the Dems will take a HUGE hit in the next election. While I think it was the right decision, I think 'civil unions' would have been more easily accepted by those who believe marriage is only between ...... you know the rest. I have gay friends who have been together for 35 years....for them to have no rights when one partner is dying or passes away is just wrong. I know, however, they have made sure that everything is set up so that never happens. But look at the pain upon pain it causes others. Call it whatever makes people happy.....but be sure to call it equal rights for all.
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