Political update, Halloween edition

1. The McCain campaign is "dead even" with Obama in Iowa. You read that right. Dead even. In Iowa! You can even read about at the liberal network NBC. Those polls showing Obama up by 10, 11, or 15 points are meaningless. If it wasn't close why is Obama in the state today?
2. Even Jay Leno and David Letterman want to see John McCain elected.
3. The polls are tightening! The polls are tightening! Well, just one, but it's a good one: Rasmussen. He has McCain only down by four and pulling the highest percentage since early September.
Don't forget yesterday's Fox poll that shows that Obama's nine point lead last week is down to three!
With that kind of momentum McCain will win by a larger share than Bush did in 2004.
4. Read this leak from the Obama campaign:

According to this leak, Obamas campaign think MO, NC, NV, CO, all outside their reach. Only IA, MN, PA, true battleground. They trail in OH, but "hope" they can still get OH!!

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The MSM (that's Main Stream Media for all you non-blogging folks) will do whatever it can to get Obama elected. Don't believe the polls. Where are those polls' headquarters? New York, Chicago, and D.C. Of course they will have a liberal bias!
I'm from rural Iowa. My daddy owns a shot gun and pick up truck. You don't get any more real American than that.
There's no way real America will support the leftist, socialist, communist from the Chicago machine politics.
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Update: McCain takes the lead in Zogby's poll. Remember, Zogby is a Democrat. It must be killing the Obamabots to be losing this! They can't deny the truth when it comes from one of their own.

Happy Halloween (to my Republican friends)

This cartoon is from Greg Mankiw's blog. He's the guy who advised Bush for a couple of years.

Anyhow, I mentioned a while back that we will be looking at a massive fiscal stimulus after the election. Mankiw agrees and points to fellow conservative economists who feel the same way.

Oh, come on!

I know some believe the election of Obama is a sign of the apocalypse. Even one of my friends thinks that. (Hi Jay!)

Signs like this make me wonder if they're right!

Pic from Ben Smith. I like one of the comments written on Ben's blog:

"Wow. Dislike of Bush trumps ingrained racism. I guess Bush did fulfill his promise when he said he would unite us as a country. It took him 8 years, but he did it!"

My friend Matt hung a large Confederate flag in his Coe dorm room. If he tells me he voted for Obama I will check the sky for locusts.

Political Potpourri

I've mellowed a bit since this afternoon. After I received news of the cheating incident I must have paced several miles. That's good. Any exercise I get here is good. I'll write more about the cheating this weekend.
For now I'll return to my near constant obsession. (An obsession that can described this way: Tonight I was stopping back at my apartment building to pick up a friend to join a couple of others for dinner. I called to let her know that I needed to time to run in to my apartment to use the bathroom. All true. I didn't add that I needed a minute to check the latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll, which, just yesterday, had the race tightening. I have become such a geek that I know the time of day each of the seven tracking polls are released and become quite irritated when they don't post on time.)
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First, I watched the Obama 30 minute infomercial. Its Ken Burns Civil War narration style helped calm me down from the cheating furor. It was very well done and the transition into a live rally was absolutely amazing. How on earth did they get the timing that perfect? As I wrote to a Republican friend, "I wonder how many people saw it and whether or not it actually changed anyone's views. Anyone so uninformed as to not who they are going to vote for by this time is probably not going to watch a 30 minute infomercial. I think it will be effective, however, in energizing Democrats for the last push. It made me want to fly back to America to help out in any way I could... "
Second, whoever does Senator McCain's commercials needs spell check.
Third, we all get those forwards from people that make us shake our heads. I don't get many anymore because I go to snopes.com which debunks them and reply with a basic, "How can you be that stupid?" response. It's a wonder I don't have more friends.
Anyhow, they are often something witty supposedly written by a famous person. Right wingers like to forward stories supposedly written by Maureen Dowd. "See even a liberal columnist like Maureen Dowd questions Obama's fundraising!" The problem? Anyone who has read Maureen Dowd's work realizes it isn't her. As she says:

"It is hard to track down and control these things, and anyone who reads my column knows that this wasn't me. I got to the second line and I knew it wasn't me."

As I was reading George Will's latest column I thought the same thing. If it wasn't posted on the Washington Post web site I wouldn't have believed he wrote it. The number of Republicans who have jumped off the Straight Talk Express gives me the vision of the bus pulling a Thelma and Louise.
And finally, has the Cedar Rapids Gazette made an endorsement? In my memory they have always endorsed Republicans except in '92 when they were part of a handful of newspapers endorsing Perot.
P.S. Today's Rasmussen tracking poll has the race returning to the range it has been for the past month... Not that I was getting nervous or anything.
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Update: McCain may have spent years in the military but his campaign can't shoot straight. Today he's at a rally where he calls out for Joe-the-plumber. Joe's nowhere to be found. Why? He was sitting at home. Dana Bash of CNN called the moment awkward.
I'm sure it was.

"One of these things is not like the other..."

Sandy's suggested title from the comments was much better than mine.
I found this pic reading Jonathan Martin's blog.

Eight days and counting

It's surprisingly close... in Arizona.
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I have volunteered for many campaigns. In each we were told either A. Do not talk to the press, or B. Let us know if anyone from the press talks to you. I understand the reasoning. The last thing a campaign needs is a volunteer or paid worker going off message. This youtube is unfortunate. 99% 90% of the people working in the McCain field offices are good people supporting their candidate. This guy needs to get some sleep.
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I'll repeat: If you are not reading the Hannity-insanity forums you should. You can find every stage of grief. I'll summarize for you:
1. Denial - "The polls are wrong. Nobody has polled me! All independents will go to McCain, the Bradley effect, the Bradley effect!" (The Bradley effect is the notion that people tell pollsters they'll vote for the black man but really vote for the white man. Unfortunately, Obama did better than his poll numbers in the majority of primaries - New Hampshire being the big exception. So if McCain cries between now and election day all bets are off.)
2. Anger. The Democrats are going to steal this election with the help of Acorn!
3. Bargaining. This is the best. If we all call four people today... and they call four people... well, hey we're so close to getting McCain/Palin elected. (This crowd loves Sarah, John not-so-much.)
4. Depression. This one is scary. One of the most popular threads on Hannity for the past couple of days was titled, "Today I purchased two handguns." Other threads discuss secession for the red states and "Will Obama make us pay reparations to the slaves?" Amazing, amazing stuff.
5. Acceptance. Here's a direct quote from an e-mail to me today from a Republican friend:

"All I hope is that people know what they are voting for. If they are in favor of this, then OK, but I just hope they know what they are getting....."

Specifically he cites an interview Obama did in 2001. I had read the text and didn't understand what Republicans found so incendiary. Ken forwarded me the Youtube of the interview. I listened... played it twice, actually. I guess I'm one of the Americans hypnotized by Obama because I heard nothing outrageous. In case you don't play the youtube here is the quote from Obama in 2001:

But the Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth, and more basic issues of political and economic justice in this society. And to that extent, as radical as I think people try to characterize the Warren Court, it wasn’t that radical. It didn’t break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution, at least as it’s been interpreted, and the Warren Court interpreted it in the same way that generally the Constitution is a charter of negative liberties... And one of the, I think, tragedies of the civil rights movement was, because the civil rights movement became so court-focused, I think there was a tendency to lose track of the political and community organizing and activities on the ground that are able to put together the actual coalitions of power through which to bring about redistributive change.

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Finally, Alaska Senator Ted Stevens has been found guilty. He's been on trial for weeks but was still running even in the polls. He demanded a speedy trial because he was sure he would be acquitted before election day. Alaska's new senator will be Mark Begich. Another name you will never need to remember.
Democrats can gloat, but we have our own scum. We picked Tim Mahoney to replace gay predator Mark Foley (you remember, he would send IM's to 17 year old pages asking, "So what are you wearing?"). Tim, proving he was straight, had an affair with a female staffer and fired her after she broke up with him. Realizing this would cost him dearly if she went public he promised to pay her $121,000. This is one House seat my side will be giving back to the Republicans.

"Tokyo Rose" quote of the day

"You're a nice young man and I thought you had a political future ahead of you, but that just ended your political career right there," Senator Harkin to his opponent Christopher Reed.  Reed said Harkin gave aid and comfort to the enemy and was like a Tokyo Rose.
It's one thing to lose a campaign.  It's another to go down in flames. 

Not from Cedar Rapids... ugh.

I hate it when I see really stupid quotes attributed to Iowans. It's even worse when the guy lives in Cedar Rapids. This quote is from a Cedar Rapidian attending the McCain/Palin rally on Saturday:

"We don't really have a choice right now because otherwise it's going to be slavery, you know," Getz said. "The guy who's running on the other side, he's not an American. He don't even think like we do."

He is right about one thing: me don't think like he do.

Political roundup

11 days and counting.
According to the Register even Republican analysts can't understand why McCain/Palin is spending so much time in Iowa.
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As the Bush Sr. campaign slowly ground its way to defeat in 1992 Mary Matalin never waivered. She remained loyal to the end while other aides were sending out resumes before the first vote was cast. Apparently there are no Matalins in the McCain inner circle. Another story is titled, "GOP forms circular firing squad."
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It doesn't get any better than this: Who was the highest paid campaign aid for McCain/Palin in September? A make-up artist.
As one disgusted Republican wrote on Hannity's forum board: "I think they are trying to lose."
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And finally, there's this youtube about a vet who did not vet.
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Update: From the scratching my head department: In Sioux City Governor Palin said, "I don’t know what to think of having in my family Uncle Barney Frank or others to make decisions for me."
Huh? I doubt she's trying to say that like Newt, Cheney, and Alan Keyes she has a gay family member. Perhaps she was simply refering to the out congressman as "uncle" as part of the code words Republicans use when talking to each other.

Quote of the day

Steven G. Calabresi, Professor of law, Northwestern University:

"The bottom line here is that as investors have come to expect an Obama presidency with around 60 Democratic senators, the stock market has crashed and expectations of a severe recession have risen. There are many causes of all of this, but Obama's tax and regulatory plans are one of the reasons for the plunge. If he wins, we should expect further losses and less social wellbeing than we have enjoyed over the last eight years."
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See?  The Dow going from 3,000 to 10,500 during the Clinton years was due to Reagan's tax cuts in 1981.  The Dow dropping from 10,500 when Bush took office to 8400 today is Obama's fault.  All good news is thanks to Republicans and all bad news is due to Democrats.
I'm glad I was able to straighten that out for you.

Fred Thompson

The McCain campaign is running a web ad showing Fred Thompson endorsing McCain and explaining why Obama would be a bad president.  The endorsement and ad aren't that interesting; the fact it looks like Fred is sitting in the oval office is fascinating.  I wonder how many Republicans will see this and wonder how this election would be different if they had only nominated Thompson.  I know of at least one of my blog readers who wishes it had been Thompson...
Personally, I'll always wonder how things would have been different if the McCain of 2000 was running and not the McCain of 2008.

How does McCain win?

There are several scenarios on how Obama wins but it is a relevant question to ask how McCain wins. Let's say Obama takes all Kerry states (except Pennsylvania) plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. By virtue of winning Pennsylvania McCain is the next president. The problem? Obama is ahead 53.7 to 38.4 in Pollster's average for Pennsylvania.

That says nothing of the polls in Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. McCain would have to pull the upset in Pennsylvania AND win all of the states above to win the presidency. I'm not measuring curtains for Obama but I'm glad to be on his side.

And I must say, "Thank you Sarah Palin!"

She's the gift that keeps on giving.

Update:
McCain is spending all day Saturday in Iowa? Most of it with his running mate? And since he's doing Meet the Press from Waterloo it means a good part of Sunday as well.

Yippee! I'm so happy the McCain campaign is in Iowa for the second to last weekend before the election. That means he's NOT in a state that could actually decide this election. Then again, this is progress because John McCain doesn't work weekends.

Student question

Here's a joke for my Republican friends:
A student asked me how he can vote in the American election.  I responded, "You can't.  Only Americans can vote."  I could have added, "But I'll have ACORN sign you up..."

Quote of the day

"Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Don't underestimate our ability to screw it up." - Senator Barack Obama
The fundraiser was hosted by Billy Joel and Bruce Springsteen. Obama said, "Sorry, Bruce and Billy, but I grew up with you all."

It dawned on me that Born in the USA was released when Obama was in college, and Piano Man when he was just 12!

Quote of the day

From Mickey Edwards, a former Republican congressman:
"This is the dilemma: we know too little about Obama and too much about McCain to be truly comfortable with either."
Fortunately, Obama's calm, steady hand in this election has reassured jittery voters. The Ayers attacks might have worked if McCain had launched them in June. Now they look desperate and out of touch with the real problems the world is facing.

McCain ad in Iowa

Using the floods for political gain does not strike me as a good idea. I can't find any story about this on the Gazette website.
Here's the link where I first read about it.

McCain in Iowa

I was surprised to read that McCain is returning to Iowa.  I would have thought there would be greener pastures elsewhere.  From today's Washington Post:
"McCain's political director, said internal campaign polling does not make the electoral map look as bad as some public polls suggest. For example: Asked why, if he has given up on Michigan, McCain has not given up on Iowa, a state that looks strong for Obama in public polls, DuHaime said because the campaign's polling has Obama's lead in the low single digits."
So McCain's internal polls show a close fight in Iowa.  Hmm. 

Thought for the day

Today the world's central banks acted in coordination in a way that's never been done before. From the press accounts I'm reading our Ben Bernanke led the way.

When Bush appointed him two years ago I praised the decision to my classes (who were surprised because I don't often praise Bush's decisions).

Bill Maher also praised the appointment but (paraphrasing) "Is this like the applause for a mentally challenged kid who gets a question right? In six years he makes one good appointment that is not a political hack and we're supposed to applaud?"

Now there's talk that world's central bankers might actually meet to discuss the crisis.

I can't help but wonder how this would be playing out if we had a President with the stature to discuss these issues intelligently.

Thought for the day

Unless the stock market makes an incredible rebound by January 20, 2009, George Bush will be the only 8 year president to have a Dow lower than when he came into office.

Update:
I've received the Republican talking points:
The longest expansion in history during the Clinton years is thanks to Ronald Reagan.
The first recession under W. is Clinton's fault.
The stock market's recent decline is because the market is scared of an Obama victory.

I'm sure the fact the Dow is lower today than when Bush took office is somehow Democrats fault as well.

For my former students...

On the first day of the Political Economics class I told my students, "There are three items on every test:  Define fiscal policy, monetary policy and know the name of the chair of the Federal Reserve.  If you leave a class in political economy without knowing these I have failed you.  Again, it will be on every test..." By the time I repeat myself students usually pick up a pencil and start writing.
In last night's debate Senator McCain twice referred to the "fiscal crisis".  He either misspoke or he does not understand the definition of the term. 
All-in-all I thought the debate was pretty good for both sides.  I often wonder how the world would be different if Al Gore had been president.  When I see McCain I wonder how the world would have different if he had received the nomination in 2000.