Polling mania

Yesterday Gallup had Romney up 52-45 among likely voters.  

The state polls of the swing states show Obama winning enough swing states to win the electoral college.  In fact, he could lose a few where he is a few points ahead and still get over 270.

Yesterday NBC News/Marist had a poll in Iowa showing Obama up 51-43.  

Today PPP (considered reliable) has a poll with Romney up 49-48.

Wow.  I'd be happy to take the average of these two polls and say Obama is up 49-46.

In 2004 I scored 48 out 50 states right.  The two states I missed were Ohio and Iowa.  Iowa.  My state and I got it wrong.  Bush won Iowa that year by .6% and Ohio by 1.1%.  

Bottom line:  If Gallup is right and Romney is leading 6-7% in the nation the electoral college won't matter, Romney is president.  If it is more like a 2% race either way than each state counts and all eyes have to be on Ohio.  As much as I love Iowa, I just can't see a path to victory for Romney that doesn't include Ohio.

An indecent proposal

I have lived in this apartment for four years.  Tonight I took my second walk in the neighborhood.  A block from my house I was approached by a guy with low English skills.  I quickly realized he was offering sex.  At first I thought he was offering himself but then he quickly said, "I bring Fillipina."

So I was dealing with a pimp.

I have often said that I will stay here as long as it remains interesting and I see new things.  Being solicited 200 yards from my house definitely rates as interesting.

And I wish I could express how unbelievable this is:  I live on the outskirts of town... I can see the open desert from my tiny balcony.  The number of cars that pass in front of my place in a day are counted by the dozens, not the hundreds or thousands.

In other words, it's not quite as rural as where I grew up but it's the next best thing.  I'm pretty sure Newhall, Iowa, doesn't have any pimps.

I get to be a student!

Long story short:  Next Sunday - Tuesday I will be a student again.

The training session is put on by the Harvard Business School with the topic of "negotiations."  I loved my negotiations class in graduate school and even though I suck at bargaining I really, really like negotiations.  (After my work with Spellman on union contracts I think I could have taken a job working in this field.  I am much better negotiating on behalf of someone than I am negotiating for me.)

There is extra value for me to attend this training:  It will be at the company where my university will be doing training in the future and I might, just might, be the point person on it.  To see what they expect in terms of training would be helpful.

As I told my class that next week's classes were canceled I said, "I know this is hard for you to hear because you will miss this class...." and they laughed.  I appreciated that.  If they didn't know me they would have said, "Oh, sir, we will miss you!"

Today I received the material I have to read before next week and I told my class that I was excited to get homework.  Forty students collectively rolled their eyes.

And I laughed.

A huge paycut

Today my boss called me in to say, "Due to new university rules we can't pay you for your work at the entrepreneurship center."  That's a $13,600 pay cut.  

Ouch.

I am not crying because:  

1. I still make good money.
2. There are some other things in the pipeline that could really payoff (see post below).
3. There might be a way to still make this payoff - not as well, but if I can still be paid for the "teaching" part of the entrepreneurship center and, hey, get to go to a conference somewhere cool that might justify the work.
4. The center is stressful and time consuming.  Teaching is not.  If I have to fall back to "just teaching" I'm pretty OK with that.

My friend and co-director Dan has pretty much decided to choose option #4.  

Sullivan - "Did Obama just throw the entire election away?"

When I read Andrew Sullivan's meltdown on Sunday it seemed a bit over-the-top and premature.

Yes, the Pew Poll showing Romney up by 4 was bad news, but...

It was just one poll.  Pew is a reliable pollster but even good pollsters can have 1-in-20 bad polls.  I hoped Pew's Romney 49, Obama 45 was exactly that one oddball poll.

Unfortunately, all other polls released in the past two days confirm Pew's results:  Romney is tied or ahead in all national polls.  Swing state polls are also showing dramatic shifts.

Andrew Sullivan's meltdown was - if anything - prescient and very much worth reading.

A month without Ambien

I last took an Ambien on my flight back here on September 4.  I fell asleep over Canadian airspace and woke up over Turkey.  In other words, I slept for more than half of the 14 hour flight. It doesn't get any better than that!

The transition here was not as good:  I woke up at 4AM for the entire week after I came back.

Falling asleep was not a problem, however, so yippee!

For a month I had no problems falling asleep and dared to wonder, "Is my need for Ambien over?"  On Friday night I was awake until 4AM.  I would have taken an Ambien but since it was the weekend I told myself, "You have no excuse, you can sleep in."

One month has been nice.  It's the longest I've gone without an Ambien since it was first prescribed back in 2004.  I plan to hold out for as long as I can but it seems I've fallen back to the pattern of sleeplessness I know oh, so well.

Oh, the places you'll go! (maybe)

Today was interesting.  I woke up at 4 to read news and watch the big debate.  At 9 I had a meeting to go over a training project proposal - basically people from my university would provide training for a major company in the country.

I have not been involved in this for the past six months.  I didn't ask to be involved and I wasn't asked to be involved.  On Tuesday I was asked if I would look over the materials and come to a meeting on Thursday.  

I read through what the company requested.  I read through what we had prepared for them.  I couldn't connect the dots.  So I went to the meeting today to say, "Thanks for asking, but I don't understand our proposal so I should really bow out."  I didn't have time to get to the second part of my statement.  

In just a few minutes a colleague slammed her computer shut, stormed out of the room and said, "I quit."  

"Wow," I said, "I just said I don't understand!"

Seeing the reaction from the rest of the team it was clear that events played out pretty much as they expected.  (There are people in the world who are scared to say they don't understand.  I never have that fear.  I always acknowledge my ignorance, I'm willing to speak up, and I suspect that's why I was invited.)

In the aftermath, I said, "Look, when it comes to training we have a client who has given us outcomes they want achieved.  Our training sessions have to map back to those outcomes.  This isn't rocket science."

The senior person there said, "The Dean believes we need a point person working with the client on a daily basis... yada, yada, yada... and Steve, he thinks you are right for the position."

Wow.

There are many ways this can fall apart so I'm not planning a move to Abu Dhabi.  (Did I mention the company is 90 miles away? A colleague said, "You wouldn't have to move.  They'll have a driver for you every day."  Seriously.)  Also, there are parts of this that match my talents - client service - and parts of this that don't - the daily grind of task management is not my strength.

Also, HELLO?  I am in this gig for teaching.  I don't want to give up the classroom.

All of this is very premature.  After six months of fighting (which I dutifully kept out of) we now have 2 weeks to create a make-or-break presentation.  If we can't deliver then all of this is for nothing.  

Given Obama's debate performance this is exactly what I need:  A legitimate reason to work and not spend 6 hours/day trolling news sites.

*****
Having re-read this post I think it comes off more "I've come to save the day" than the situation warrants.  I'm not going to take the time to re-write.  There are logical reasons for me to do the new job that have nothing to do with me vs. anyone else in my college.  As an instructor I don't have to publish.  And I have training experience.  Again, it's not rocket science, but as someone with a thousand insecurities it's nice to know I'm appreciated.

First impressions vs. lasting impressions

Mitt Romney won the first debate.  He didn't come off as snobbish.  He was aggressive and he made his points.  The president was cool.  Too cool for me.  Not one mention of the 47%?  Not even a veiled reference of "I'm president of all of the people"?  Romney said, "Maybe I should fire my accountant" and the President didn't respond with a comment about moving money to the Cayman Islands or Swiss bank accounts?  He lobbed a softball to you Mr. President and you didn't strike.

First impression:  Romney won.

The lasting impression, however, may be just as important.  The president came off as, well, presidential.  He came off as the reasonable grownup.  Romney did a good job of keeping his borderline hyperactivity in check but he said some things that will not play as well in the long run:  When asked if he would accept $10 in spending cuts for $1 in new taxes he said, "No."  He also said he wouldn't cut, Medicare, Medicaid, SS, Student Pell grants, etc. AND he would increase military spending.

I want to have faith in the American people that they will see he is promising a free ice cream sundae.