Valentine from Gus

It was nice to get a valentine from my dog.  Mom added the following note:

After the first day, he got back into his old routine and it's just like you were never home.

98.1

It's not my temperature, it's my weight.  I bought a nice digital scale to better track my weight gain.  I won't convert it for you but I was happy I didn't break 100.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do lose weight.  I don't exercise and it's now getting hot enough that long walks or jogging is not realistic.  There are several health clubs but I know I won't go.  Plus it angers me to have to pay more at one of these clubs because I am single male.  

Liberal bias meets Larry Kudlow

Larry Kudlow is an anchor on CNBC. Not a commentator, but an anchor of their morning coverage of the business news. Read this and explain to me the liberal bias in the media.

My two favorite sentences are:

While not quite as high as spending levels in Western Europe, we regrettably will be gaining on this statist-planning approach.

Study after study over the past several decades has shown how countries that spend more produce less, while nations that tax less produce more.

Spending "not quite as high as Western Europe"? Not even close. Study after study... really? I keep up on this stuff. It's what I do. Outside of studies produced by the Cato institute or other right wing think-tanks I haven't seen your data. Is this a case of, "If we say it often enough it becomes true"?

Last week CNBC's Rick Santelli went on a rant and later claimed that his family was "threatened" by the Obama White House. NBC smartly realized they needed to walk back this claim and had Santelli appear on the Today show to say it was really all in his wife's head.

This is the mainstream liberal media at its best.

Citi - You say tomato...

Ok, so the Obama team is opposed to nationalizing. Rather than nationalizing it is "investing" in Citi and getting preferred stock. Preferred stock simply means the government isn't trying to own Citi. Once the company rebounds it will pay off the preferred stock. Umm, what if that doesn't happen?

Well, today the government's stake of preferred stock has been converted to common stock. Overnight the American people have become 1/3 owners of this bank.

Congratulations!

This is nationalizing by another name.

In two words: Really screwed

A month ago I wrote "In a word, screwed." The GDP (the amount of stuff the country produces) fell by a lot in the final in final quarter of last year. I said at the time that the numbers were bad but the real story was much worse - due to the way it was counted it actually made things look better than reality.

Well, the reality number was released today: The economy contracted by 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008... Which is worse than predicted. You'll read that this is the worse decline since 1982.

So is the economy only as bad as the early 1980's?

No, it's much worse. In 1982 oil was at $34/barrel and over the next four years dropped to $13 (a huge savings for us). In 1982 the prime rate on loans was over 15% and would be cut in half over the next four years. By 1982 the housing market had been decimated. Bottom had been hit and housing prices moved up as interest rates came down.

Where are we now? Oil has already dropped by 2/3. There's not much more it can drop. The Fed is giving money away... and holding a gun to the heads of bankers and saying, "You will take this." Interest rates are at record lows. And housing prices still have not hit bottom.

In other words, none of the positives that brought us out of the 1980's recession will help us now.

Cheers!

*****
Dad, please plant extra sweet corn this spring. One, I'm going through withdrawal and will eat more this summer than ever. Two, whatever excess can go to a soup kitchen nearby. I'm sure it will be appreciated.

Clean coal

America is the Saudi Arabia of coal.  It is used produce 50% of our electricity.  Unfortunately, it is also a horrible polluter.  I wish there was such a thing as clean coal.

Obama's proposed cap and trade will force companies like Alliant to either make more of their energy from wind or natural gas or pay for permits to continue to use coal.  I prefer a simpler carbon tax, but that has been deemed too controversial.  Either way, the price of electricity is going up.

Hoping dreams do not come true

My insomnia is hitting new heights. I can't think of a night I've been asleep before 3. Lately it's been fueled by bad dreams, all very vivid. Death and dying have been common themes. Perhaps that's due to thinking about Spellman. I can't even force myself to try to go to sleep...

Last night I read Thursday's economic numbers. Between the new jobless claims and the drop in durable goods, yeesh. Usually there is a silver lining in bad economic news. Yesterday there was none: It was bad and really bad.

So what did I dream about last night? The Great Depression, 21st century style. If my dream does come true it will be an odd sight to see long lines for soup kitchens while people walk by tapping on their blackberries... Modern day Hoovervilles built in a field across from the airport. My dream made the point that for what's coming some are going to get hurt to the point of not having food. Others will still be driving their Lexus.

Men's campus

My office is on the men's campus.  It's old and showing signs of age.  They are building a completely new campus but until it opens this is home.  Shortly after I arrived I heard this place called Guantanamo.  Compared to the modern Business and Econ building on the women's campus this place is rustic... but I've come to like it.

This is the view from my office window.  It is common to put up permanent shading, like the structure above the benches.  Giving the sun's ability to fry an ant it's a good thing.

Likewise, the walkways from building to building are covered.  

Another example of a covered walkway.  This reminds me of the Men In Black.  (A great movie that starred a talking pug whose advice saved the universe.)

This is the view from the roof of the building I teach in.  Al Ain, sounding like a broken record, is unbelievably green.  There are no tall buildings and that is by design.  The founder of the country was born in this city and he didn't want tall buildings to clutter the skyline.

Men's campus - lots of flowers

As I've written before, I never expected to see so many flowers while living in a desert.  These pictures are from the walkway in front of my office. 

I find these flowers very interesting.  

Buddhists are cool

They even have a temple made from beer bottles.

The Beavis and Butthead response

Once again, Nobel Prize award winner Paul Krugman says it better than I can.

Joys of blogging

This has happened more than once: I write a post and hit "publish post". It doesn't post or sometimes doesn't appear to post. Later I find it buried ten posts back.

Huh? I don't get it. As I rewrite the post I try to think, "What did I write the first time?"

This time it was the post about Obama's speech. Apparently I wrote it yesterday and today. That's quite a feat.

I'll leave both posts and you can play "spot the differences" game. I need to do some chanting now.

Update: This isn't the story I was looking for, but it's an interview with Durbin that makes the same point.

Obama's economic address

Excellent. Finally, a president who addresses the nation as adults. He provided optimism without sugarcoating the problems. During the primaries I remember a satirical interview with Dick Durbin, the senior senator from Illinois. (No link, I couldn't find it.)

Question: Don't you ever resent Obama? He's the new upstart, flash-in-the-pan while you've been doing this work for 20 years.
Durbin: (laughing) No, not at all. It's more like I play on a major league team and we just recruited the best player. Now we have a chance to win the pennant.

I was a Hillary supporter early on. I didn't switch to Obama until a month or so before the Iowa caucus. As I watched the speech I thought, "Hillary could not have given this speech... even Bill."

If only his team could live up to the promise of Obama we might just avoid living through what our grandparents did.

Buddhist chants

In Nepal the Buddhist tourist areas had chants playing. The most common chant is the one in this video. (This video has an extremely long musical prelude. To get to the chant fast forward to the 1:12 mark… But getting to the chant fast kind of defeats the purpose. It’s like saying, “I want to hurry up and clear my mind.”) The video is trippy. To play it scroll down so you can't see the video and simply listen to the chant.

I left Nepal over two months ago, but I sill do the chant many times every day. It has a remarkably calming affect.

The words “oh mani padme hum” means “The jewel is the heart of the lotus.” Ok. The translation is “Oh my God within me” and is designed to clear the heart and mind.

********
Post notes:
1. It took me an hour to find the right version of the chant to post on the blog. Oh, the work I do for my hundreds tens of readers.
2. To me they are chanting “Ohm mani benday home” Does anyone else hear “padmi”?
3. After starting the blog I joked with a few friends that I was starting a cult. Perhaps this is the next step…

If interested, I can send you an MP3 of a 25 minute version I purchased in Nepal. (I’ve added my own subliminal cult messages.)

Obama's economic address

I was impressed. A President who talks to the nation as though we are adults. It was optimistic without sugarcoating the enormous problems we face.

Illinois' senior senator Dick Durbin was asked during the primary season how he felt about this "upstart" Obama. (I tried to find the original link, sorry.)

Question: Don't you ever feel jealous? Here's this new guy everyone is fawning over and you've been in the senate a long time.
Durbin: No. It's like playing on a major league team and we've just recruited the best player. Now we have a chance to win the pennant.

I was a Hillary supporter early on. I hesitantly switched to Obama a month before the Iowa caucuses. As I watched that speech I thought, "Hillary could not have done this... not even Bill."

Now if his economic policies can follow the rhetoric we may just avoid living through our grandparents' experience.

Sales tax

I'm glad I can't vote back in Cedar Rapids next week.  I hate the sales tax.  It's regressive - meaning it hurts the poor much harder than the rich - and it hurts local businesses as people are more likely to shop online or elsewhere. 

If I lived in CR I'd probably vote for it because there is no good alternative.  That's unfortunate because there are good alternatives.

An income tax surcharge could raise money without burdening the poor...

The Gazette has a story today about what happens if the sales tax doesn't pass.  Put simply:  It won't be pretty.

Living in a fog

Back to back nights of less than 3 hours sleep will do that to you. I have taken an ambien tonight and will, hopefully be asleep soon. I'm getting up early to watch Obama's speech.

Preview

I have been taking more pictures of where I teach, my offices, etc. I want to post "my world" this weekend. What are the types of things you are curious about seeing?

A good reason to avoid McDonalds

I need a good reason to avoid McDonalds.  The McArabia alone accounts for 10 of the 30 pounds I’ve gained since I arrived here.

A Mickey D’s employee in Arkansas heard a man verbally abuse a woman and then punch her in the face.  The employee pushed him outside where he was shot several times.

McDonalds is now fighting his workman’s comp claim.  Here’s the TV news segment:

Up in smoke

What do George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Rush Limbaugh, the Republican Party and preventing gays from serving in the military all have in common?

They are all less popular than legalizing marijuana.

Nate Silver at 538 has the full story here.

Lung fung soup

With a name like that I had to order it.

Once I scraped off the top layer - lung or fung, I'm not sure - it tasted pretty good.

Mmm... bacon

I decided to go with the Homer Simpson line instead of, "I found my new diet." This guy is living on nothing but bacon for the month of February and has actually lost weight and saw his blood pressure decrease. Before you scoff, this is the premise of the Atkins and South Beach diets: Get the carbs out of your system and you are not hungry.

Nationalizing banks - oh, the horror!

There must be something I'm missing. The US is in the midst of a very bad storm. There are huge issues to deal with. Whether or not to nationalize Citi and/or Bank of America isn't one of them. They already have one foot in the grave. Dumping the rest of the body won't take much work.

The term "nationalization" sounds like "communism." It's not. It's simply saying this big bank owes more in debts than it has in assets. It is bankrupt but we can't have a bank like Citi (once the world's largest bank) simply shut its doors... so the US government is going to step in and keep the doors open. They'll take over the toxic debt and break the bank up into sellable pieces. The big losers are current stockholders who see their equity wiped out. Shares are trading around $2 so they've already lost most of their investment. (Taxpayers could also be the losers if the debts are really, really toxic but... well, it beats the alternative.)

It won't be pretty, but it's a fixable problem... unlike some of the other challenges we face.

Cell phone contracts

You probably have a cell phone with a contract.  You pay a set amount each month and if you go over in minutes or text messages you pay through nose.

Here, virtually everyone uses pay-as-you-go.  You buy a phone and a sim card(what gives you a phone number and connects you to the network).  You'll pay more for the phone.  There are no "free" phones like you can get with contracts in the US.  But we Americans know there is nothing really free.  We pay for that phone over and over during our two year contracts.  

When you get a new phone in the US you have to contact the service and they set it up for you.  Here you simply take out your sim card and put it in your new phone.  

In talking to colleauges it appears the US is the anamoly in how cell phones are used.  Most countries have pay-as-you-go and sim cards that can be transferred from one phone to another. 

And nobody can believe that US companies charge for incoming calls or incoming text messages.  More than once I've heard, "Let me get this straight.  The person making the call gets charged AND the person receiving the call gets charged?"  It's astonishment and disbelief that we let them get away with that.

Why don't we use pay-as-you-go?   I think there are two reasons:  1.  The pay-go phones suck.  I've looked at getting one for Ann while she was back and the phones are vintage 2001.  2.  The price per minute is outrageous.  I saw phones with 10 cent per minute fees.  This isn't the 1990's.  Noboby pays 10 cents per minute anymore.

I am glad to read that the times are changing.  Pay-go phones have improved and apparently they now have some reasonably priced plans.   I will probably switch to this when I return.  Right now I'm paying Sprint $30/month for a phone I'm not using and a contract that is up in July.

How much cheaper is pay-as-you-go here?  I use the phone only slightly less here and I've spent $80 over six months.  Yep, it's a lot cheaper. 

The real news

Today's front page story is Venus beating Serena in the semi-finals of the Dubai Open.  Not front page of the sports section, front page of the newspaper.  This country follows tennis closer than America follows football.  During the US Open and Austrailian Open they'd dedicate four pages a day to reach round of play. 

Also, if you want to know how US centric thinking is here... well, who won the other semi-final match?  To learn that you'd have to go to the sports section.  Today Venus won the final and I'd bet money she'll be on the cover of every newspaper tomorrow.

The other story gets two columns.  When an adversary like Iran - that is only a couple of hundred miles away - can get a nuclear weapon it should be on the first page.  Just make sure it doesn't overshadow Venus.

Iowa's budget woes

Want to feel good about Iowa's budget problems?  Compare them to other states.

I'm not sure where the numbers are coming from.  Iowa's problem seems understated at $134 million.  

Bank loans

My brother sent two questions:

1.  Were banks forced to loan money to people?  In other words, they had no choice but to make loans?

No.  No bank has been forced to make loans.  It's a popular rewriting of history on Hannity and Rush to say that Clinton forced banks to make loans to minorities.  Clinton did give banks incentives to make loans in areas where home ownership was low (often minority communities), but no bank had a gun to their head. 

Also, these loans represent a tiny percent of the foreclosures.  The real estate collapse is at its peak in Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix and have nothing to do with minority loans.  

As the video below says, however, banks started giving loans to people who had no business getting a home loan.  All those, "Borrow up to 125% of your home value" ads were simply to drum up business for the system that made them billions.  Again, watch the video below.  It does a great job explaining who profited from giving ridiculuous loans.

2.  If someone still has the same job why are they suddenly not able to pay their mortgage?

The reason is the type of loans people took out.  Most were adjustable rate with a great rate for the first few years.  Jane takes out a loan for a house that is beyond her means.  She can make her payments for the first three years because her interest rate is 3%.  In year four the interest rate goes to Fed rate plus 2.5%.  In 2006 that would have been 7.5%.  Suddenly her payments go from $1000/month to $1400.  Jane goes under water quickly.

Should Jane have known her rates would go up?  Probably.  Certainly the guy making the loan knew.  He also knew that by the time she defaulted the loan would have been sold off so he frankly didn't care.

Credit crisis explained

If you have 10 minutes this is worth watching.  It explains the credit crisis quite well.  I particularly like the explanation of leverage...  You have $10,000.  You could invest and make $1000 or use it as collateral and make $90.000. 

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

 

Hat tip:  Andrew Sullivan

Ray La Hood: A Republican plant in the Obama administration

Let's tax vehicles for every mile you drive.  Get a more fuel efficient vehicle?  Doesn't matter, we'll tax it the same.  Every mile you drive you pay the same tax as a Hummer.

Sounds really dumb, right?  It was an idea floated by the transportation secretary.  The White House took only a few hours to kill it.

I know putting Republicans in the cabinet is supposed to mean good things but if the guy seriously that was a good idea he should be fired.  Now.

You can't fire me!

Imagine your job if you could only be fired for showing up drunk, forging documents or breaking the law.  I won't have to imagine.  I will get to see it first hand because it is the new law of the land for the Emiratis.

Just imagine:  You show up to work three hours late... every day.  You do a crappy job.  It doesn't matter; you can't get fired.  

I am teaching a class on operations management.  The class assignments for the next two weeks is calculating productivity.  I am trying to teach the class that workers are paid on the basis of their productive contribution to the company.  What I am now teaching is a theory class that has no connection to the reality of the workforce here.

Groundskeepers

Earlier this week I posted about how beautiful streets are in this city.  The next day I was headed to my 8AM class and saw the workers arriving for their day of work.

The picture is blurry because it was taken while I was driving up to a roundabout.  I've mastered eating fast food going into a roundabout and talking on a cell phone (sometimes both at the same time).  I apparently haven't mastered the art of photography and roundabouts.

A pug's love

For the record, I oppose all public displays of affection... but this is my blog and you chose to come to it...

I was nervous to see Gus when I returned home.  Would he remember me?  Would he be happy to see me?  Yes and yes.  Gus sat on my lap from Moline to Cedar Rapids.  He was licking me pretty much the entire way.  For the next week he wouldn't let me out of his sight, even when we were out at Mom and Dad's (his home for the past five months).  

He went about a week without seeing either Mom or Dad while I was back.  When he did see them he was as excited as he was to see me at the airport.

Mortgage reform

Honestly, I'm still waiting for details.  Treasury Secretary Geithner has not impressed me  in his three weeks in the position.  Twice now he's come forward with half baked plans with a promise that we'll get details later. 

Of details we do know:  Nobody can simply get their mortgage rewritten.  There are many hoops to jump through first.  The people hoping to have their mansions refinanced won't be helped; the program only works on conforming loans (basically those under $500k). 

What we don't know is more important:  If someone refinances under this plan and sells in two years for a profit who gets the profit?  Example:  I bought a house in 2005 for $400k.  I get to refinance and have the principal reduced to $300k.  In two years I sell the house for $350k.  The bank takes a bath for $100,000 while I get to pocket $50,000. 

Here's a plan I think most would accept:  Those who refinance give the bank 100% of the sale if done in the first five years.  (Any sale for below the refinanced price would have to have bank approval.)  Any sale from five to ten years out the gain would be split 50-50.  After ten years the owner owns the house and can do whatever s/he wants.

*****

We have no hope of achieving an economic recovery until there is a floor in housing.  I think this will help start to put a floor in housing.  It will be months, maybe even more than a year, before housing prices start to recover.  Until Geithner releases more details the right wing will continue to write the narrative for the proposal and it will have no prayer of passing.

 

CNBC's Rick Santelli grossly misrepresents the plan in this rant you see below, but perception is reality.  If people see the plan the way he does it is sunk before it is even debated.

Rick gets a little debate in this clip Eric sent me.

Bain's bane

Every true Hawkeye fan remembers exactly where they were when Bain made the call... a last second foul that cost us a victory. Bain called the foul on Kevin Boyle even though Boyle was nohwere near the shooter. Afterwards Coach Lute Olson said Bain should be in jail. Hawk fans agreed. One store started selling t-shirts showing Bain in a noose.

It's been 27 years, and sadly, 27 years of regret for Jim Bain. He came to Iowa this week - without armed escort - for a conference in Cedar Falls. After years of harassment and death threats from my fellow Hawkeye fans he could be excused for never coming back.

Cedar Rapids blogging

How many people in Cedar Rapids have a Blogger ID? I figured a hundred or so. The answer is 1100. Exactly 1100 as of last night. Not all those with a Blogspot ID have a blog but most did.

I spent many hours last night and today reading through the list. After I finished I talked to Ann who informed me it was past 4PM. I had not even ate lunch.

Here's what I learned:

1. Many blogs went like this: Post 1, "Hi, I've started a blog... we'll see how this goes." They post 3 more times and then there's a post, "Hey, I know it's been a long time since I blogged..." And then no more posts. Many, many blogs had no more than 10 posts and nothing in the past year.

2. Teenagers are using blogs to live out their teen angst. "I thought Jill was my friend but she betrayed me and I will never, never, never forget!" We've all written things when we were younger that we'd laugh at now. Thanks to blogging the note you used to pass to a friend in class is now pasted on your blog for the world to see. Writers for Dawson's Creek would have it easy today: Simply go to the blogs and you can find your next story line.

3. Religion. I couldn't believe how many blogs were dedicated to Jesus. Seriously. Sometimes it was a group of people from a church who would get together to write a blog. They'd all write about how they worshipped Jesus and how He had affected their lives... and then the blog would stop. I guess there's not much more to write after that.

4. Friends. I found several friends and acquaintances with blogs. A HS classmate has a blog dedicated to softball. My eye doctor has a blog about her trip to Africa and donating time giving eye exams in Kenya. It makes me feel better about paying for her overpriced services.

I wish I could report some startling revelation. Sorry. I'm not sure I really learned anything from the experience (besides Blogger being filled with carcasses of dead blogs), but it was a way to kill 12 hours.

Happy Birthday, Doc

Spellman would have been 67 today. This is not the only day that draws strong memories for me. Six days ago was the anniversary of the heart attack that debilitated him and June 1 is the day he died.

I simply can't imagine how different my life and hundreds of others would be had he not be taken from us.

Idiocracy

Chip - first commenter on the mortgage question - suggested I watch Idiocracy. As it happened the movie came on just as we were finishing dinner. Ann, Mike and I watched.

Those are two hours of my life I will never get back. IMDB had this to say of the film:

Unsure of how to market the film after disastrous test screenings, Fox sat on the near-completed film for over a year, before finally giving it an unusually small release in only 6 markets (skipping over major markets such as New York City). The release was done with little to no marketing.

I guess I'm blaming the movie for not having time to respond to the mortgage plan.

Lame, I know.

Quote of the day - Santorum

A democracy could not exist because Mohammed already made the perfect law. The Koran is perfect the way it is, that's why it is written in Islamic.
-Former Senator Rick Santorum

Umm. Written in Islamic?

Dinner party

Well, not quite. After living here for four months I finally got my stove hooked up. Actually, Mike hooked it up in about five minutes. Appropriately, I invited Mike and Ann over for dinner.

It's hard to have people over for dinner when there is no room for a table. "Have a seat on the couch and eat off of the coffee table..."

Disadvantages of a wide stance

Many here use a water hose instead of toilet paper to clean themselves.  As I've already described I have developed a wide stance to avoid the pool of water in front of many toilets.  

Today I learned the downside of my new position:  Somehow my foot was sprayed by the guy in the next stall.  It was brief and seemingly unintentional...

Quote of the day (2)... Guns in church

Due to many shootings that have happened in our churches across our nation, it is time we changed our concealed handgun law to allow law-abiding citizens of the state of Arkansas the right to defend themselves and others should a situation happen in one of our churches.

- State Rep. Beverly Pyle

Have I missed something?  Have there been shootings in churches and I haven't heard about it?  This sounds to me like the claim that there is a war on Christmas.

Question of the day - Mortgages

Will America view Obama's foreclosure plan as "rewarding those who acted irresponsibly" or a "necessary fix" to stop the bottom from falling out in house value?

I'll weigh in tomorrow.  For now I'm curious what you think.

Quote of the day - Tower climber

If you got fillings in your mouth you can taste it... But you don't have to worry about cancer; you just got the radiation treatment.

- Tower climber, fixing the KUNI signal describing what it is like to be on a tower struck by lightning

I'm glad I'm not back in Iowa.  Not simply because the high today is 33 there and 86 here...  When I'm in Iowa KUNI 90.9 is always on my radio.  Shortly after I left Iowa the signal went dead. 

KCRG/Gazette have a video of the guys repairing the cable.  At 3 minutes in he describes what it is like to be on the tower when it is struck by lightning.

Thanks, dad

So you've spent days working on your routine.  You have the video camera all setup and  you are about to make the coolest home video...

  Source:  Andrew Sullivan

Lesson from Enron

The price of oil has dropped to under $34/barrel. Even with the cheap oil the price of gas in eastern Iowa is over $1.80 per gallon.

The reason? Refineries have restricted the production of gasoline. There are only a handful of refineries in the US. Take a few offline and the price will spike. Enron taught refiners a lesson: If we work together we can all make more money.

This month refinery A goes offline. Next month it's refinery B. Next month refinery C. The ones that remain in production make much, much better profit margins. The companies have no problem allowing a plant to shut down because they know they will more than make up the profit next month.

It's an econ 101 lesson: An oligopoly working together has the power of a monopoly.

A disappointing job

I asked my students, "What would be a disappointing job for a college graduate? In five years if you are doing this you would be unhappy..."

The answer today: Teaching.

I laughed. I couldn't bring myself to ask why teaching is such a horrible job.

Burj Dubai

This is Burj Dubai, the tallest man-made structure ever built.  It was started in 2004 and is supposed to be completed later this year.  Its final height has not been disclosed but it's already at 2684 feet.

I took this picture the day I was leaving the Emirates to return to America.

Update:  The name was changed to Burj Khalifa in honor of the country's ruler.  It's appropriate since he bailed out Dubai during the financial crisis.

My street

When I moved to a desert I never expected everything to be so green.  The street I live on is amazingly beautiful. 

The street in the foreground is Shakboot.  It's a major street with 3 lanes of traffic going in each direction.  Back home streets intersect other streets every block.  Here neighborhoods have one or two entrances to the major street.  Turn right here and you enter my neighborhood.  I live the equivalent of 3 blocks from this entrance.

This is the view exiting my neighborhood.  There is a palace across the street.  Not being metaphorical here.  It is a palace... complete with a guard at the entrance and walls to keep out gawkers.  All that's missing is the moat with alligators.

Staying on Shakboot... I wanted to show all of the flowers.  

More flowers.

And still more flowers.
This is all right next to where I live.  Anywhere I go I drive right by these.  Most of the city is this pretty.

Not at all what I expected when I moved here.

Word for the day

Quay 

As a native English speaker I have helped some colleagues edit their writing.  I love it when they use an English word I don't know.  For the record "Quay"is a wharf or a bank where ships are loaded.  I'll bet my crossword loving parents knew this one.

It's been a long day.  I woke at 6AM, left for work by 7 taught all day and then worked on editing until 8PM.  You'd think after being gone for 13 hours I'd get to sleep easily tonight.  Nah, it's past 1AM and I have no hope of going to sleep soon.  

Insomnia isn't the worse ailment to have but it sucks nonetheless. 

Limiting compensation

Lately my daily dose of CNBC has become almost as hard to stomach as listening to Rush back home.  If you listened to CNBC you'd think that limiting bankers' compensation would absolutely backfire because they will simply find jobs elsewhere.  

Really?  If the rule is applied across the board where will they go?

The answer is not Great Britain.  Bankers there will be limited to bonuses under $3000.  

Who proposed this in Great Britain?  The leader of the Conservative party.

Same race racism

So I'm at the liquor store run by Indians getting my extremely overpriced Budweiser...  

As they are bagging the case in a black bag like porn the Indian guy next in line is told he cannot buy his two bottles of whiskey.  The guy politely returns the bottles to the shelf and walks out the door behind me.

I stopped and talked to him:

Me:  What was that all about?

Him:  They won't let me buy because I don't have a liquor card.

Me:  What?  I've never had a liquor card.  Why wouldn't they sell to you?  Oh sorry, that was a stupid question.

He went on to explain that he wanted the alcohol to drink with friends who lost their jobs and are returning to India tomorrow.  (Doesn't that beat any story you've ever heard from a college kid who tried to get you to buy for them?)  I did my absolut best to help him.

Buffalo crash

The story of the crash gets worse. The plane went from 1800 feet to 1000 feet in five seconds. Imagine experiencing this in the plane:

Chealander said information from the plane's flight data recorder indicates that the plane pitched up at an angle of 31 degrees in its final moments, then pitched down at 45 degrees.

The plane rolled to the left at 46 degrees, then snapped back to the right at 105 degrees — 15 degrees beyond vertical.

Any time you are on a plane and it has flipped to a point that you are on your side... well, you have to know you are screwed. Anyone not belted in would have been (literally) flying around the cabin. What a horrible way to die.

So, anyone want to fly over for a visit?

Gift from a former student

One of my former students tracked me down to give me this book.  It's the first I've been given here.  Receiving religious books is not new, however.  For some reason many of my students in the US also felt compelled to give me religious (Christian) literature.  They didn't give it to all of their professors, usually just me.  I'm not sure how to take that.

Hmm...  At least someone is trying to keep me from going to hell.

Detecting ice

After working at airport weather offices for four years I have a natural inclination to follow stories of airline crashes a little more closely than others.

The story of the plane crashing in Buffalo has been disturbing. As the article explains those turboprops are a magnet for ice and there's not much a pilot can do about it. The jets have a way to heat up the wing but to retrofit the props would cost $500,000/plane.

All of this reminds me of how we human observers were replaced by machines. The machines, called ASOS, did a good job 99% of the time. They accurately recorded air temperature, wind speed, air pressure, etc.

The one time they consistently failed was with freezing rain. I worked a freezing rain storm in Norfolk that was the worse storm of my life. Power lines and trees were down everywhere. Omaha made national news because it looked like a war zone from all the damage.

Not once did ASOS detect freezing rain.

Basically, ASOS works great except for the time when it is needed most.

Imagine someone selling you a car that worked the same way: "It's a great car. There will come a time when you are doing 70 on the freeway and your brakes will fail... but don't worry, if you are lucky nothing bad will happen."

"I'm an eternal optimist but I'm not a sap."

- President Barack Obama, speaking to columnists on Air Force One.

The article is a good read for those - like me - that feel the start of this administration has had too many missteps.  

The story we're not reading here

The New York Times reports that the economy in Dubai is faring very poorly.

Dubai is about 90 miles north of where I live and is in a different emirate.  (I live in the Abu Dhabi emirate.)  The article claims that Dubai has virtually no oil which is not we hear here... and that Abu Dhabi (with the oil) is letting Dubai twist in the wind.  

If you read the article you'll understand why I say that I think the economy is great.  It's wonderful.  No problems at all.  Anyone saying otherwise is itching for a fight.

And, of course, I like turtles.

Stimulus

There's no point trying to write my thoughts about the stimulus when you can read Paul Krugman's article.  He sums it up quite well.

On the economics side of it I agree with Krugman 100%:  The bill should have been bigger, been more focused on getting people to work through spending and less on tax cuts that everyone is simply going to save.

On the politics I am slightly more optimistic.  Obama really wanted a bipartisan bill.  He gave up way too much way too early and the Republicans made it clear they didn't want to play ball.  Fine.  The result is Obama's popularity is remaining in the upper 60% range.  Even if it fell 10 points it is historically very high.  

The story most Americans are hearing is "Obama is trying to reach out but the Republicans are jerks."  As that opinion solidifies it will pay dividends down the road.

Atlanta

One final note about Atlanta:  I am grateful to Matt for taking the day off of work to give me the tour.  While Coke and CNN were dissapointing, it was a great day and I had a lot of fun.  Then again, maybe I was just loopy because I hadn't slept at all the night before.

The Coke bear tried to bite my head.  I'm not sure why.  I'm wearing a Coke shirt.  I'm clearly part of the cult.  Maybe it was part of a hazing ritual I wasn't aware of.

Coffee cups made it safe

It's handy having a friend who owns an art gallery and commonly has to wrap art work for travel.  Tony did a great job.  All five cups, four mugs and soup bowl made it safely.  It's amazing how much more a place feels like home while drinking from a Coke coffee mug.

My laptop, however, didn't fare as well.  The screen doesn't work so I'm using it by projecting through my TV.  Surfing the internet can't get any lazier than doing it while lying on the couch.

Oh the waste!

This is the bagging for ONE meal at McDonalds.  They put the McArabia and fries in a sack.  They put the pop in a take away holder and then put all of that in a large plastic bag.  Everytime I eat at McD's I imagine the planet burning up and my contribution to the burn.

Why a credit crisis IS an economic crisis

I'll use a local (UAE) example: HSBC is a British bank that is a major player here. To buy a new car they used to require an income of $33,000. Now they've doubled the requirement to $66,000. Since income here is non-taxed that's the equivalent of saying an American would have to have an income near $100,000 to buy a new car.

Obviously, sales of new cars will drop and drop quickly.

It's not love that makes the world go round... or money for that matter. It's credit.

And if you read this you'll see that the world came close to a halt at 2PM on September 18, 2008.

Update: Denise asks,

Okay, Steve, dumb it down further for your English major friend. What does an "economic collapse" mean for me? I can't buy a car, prices would rise, but a political collapse? There would've been a run on the Capitol overthrowing the government? Looting and raping in the streets? Cannibalism?

If credit seizes up virtually all purchases for cars, houses, and even major appliances will end. (How many cars would be sold in the US if banks required a $100,000 salary?) As sales plummet millions lose their jobs. The economic crisis worsens and scared banks cut back lending even more.

Rinse and repeat and continue on a downward spiral...

Denise, you have a pretty secure job at a pretty secure company (assuming they don't get swallowed up by a bigger player). In the worse case scenario you will see your home value drop but that's probably about it. There won't be high inflation, if anything it will be deflation. You'll get great deals on things because stores with major appliances and large TV's will sell at a discount to clear their inventories.

Travel for your husband and you will become much cheaper. Already here in the Emirates hotel prices have been slashed. All the places you'd want to visit will have fewer pesky tourists with jobs so it will be much more enjoyable.

Come to think of it, you might do pretty well in an economic collapse!

Schoolhouse Rock

The work to pass the stimulus bill reminded me of this ABC Saturday morning cartoon.  I can remember watching Schoolhouse Rock and seriously trying to understand.  Geekdom came early for me.

Question of the day

Why is it the people who talk about being "caring" and "empathetic" are usually the least caring and empathetic?

Angel Food Ministries

Several of my Hamilton students bought from Angel Food Ministries.  For about $30 you could get a huge basket of food.   The program was run out of several churches.  All one had to do was pay in advance and then pick the food up on the designated Saturday.

They said all were welcome so I tried it.  Twice.

Each time I thought I was depriving some poor Mexcian family of a meal.  The beef was disgusting and the food staples made Aldi's look good.  

I once got some chicken legs that tasted good but I could see why they didn't sell in stores:  They were HUGE... almost the size of turkey legs.  I ate them scared that the chicken's relatives might come after me.

Anyhow, in today's Gazette there is a story that the FBI has served warrants on Angel Food Ministries after it has paid it's founder $2.5 million. 

Apparently their giant chickens have come home to roost.

Cow water

A company in India is trying to market a soft drink made from cow urine.

The PR guy said, 'Don't worry, it won't smell like urine and it will be tasty, too."

I doubt Coke is worried about its new competitor.

Political yearbook

Here's a link to 15 politicians' high school yearbook pictures.  

Fourteen of the fifteen seem to reflect the personality we've come to know.

One - Dick Cheney - is inexplicable.

Quote of the day goes to...

... President Obama.

He was down in Florida campaigning for the stimulus.  Florida's Republican Governor Charlie Crist joined him.  Charlie has been outed more times than Elton John.  Last year he really, really wanted to be McCain's running mate so he got engaged (and is now married).

Whether he's gay or not is irrelevant.  There is no doubt President Obama knows the rumors and his staff prepped him to avoid any type of innuendo.  

But the more you try to avoid saying something the more likely you'll let something slip.  Like...

"Everybody here needs to grab a hose and that is  what Charlie Crist is doing here today."

World of Coke

I've done the Budweiser tour twice. If I had time to kill in St. Louis I'd do it again. You get to see the Clydesdales and the 3 story high vats where the beer is brewed. They discuss the various types of beers they make and even pull out a tray of beechwood to show how the beer is beechwood aged.
I set the bar for the World of Coke based on Budweiser. Sadly, Coke came up short. We didn't see any production facilities. They did have a lame mini-production facility that looked like something out of Willy Wonka. It was lame enough that I forgot to take a picture.

They did have an eight minute 3D movie. The seats rocked back and forth and they added wind and sprayed us with water to enhance the simulation. It was pretty cool.

Here's Matt sampling one of the Coke products from around the world. Coke claims that the only difference between the types of Coke around the world is the type of sweetener used. Anyone who had Coke in Nepal and Coke in the US knows this isn't true. I have no idea why Coke would try to make the claim.

79 days

I didn't remember that terror of losing Coke lasted for 79 days. Here's the important quote from the text:

Company leaders knew the new formula for Coke had scored well in blind taste tests and expected the initial uproar to subside once people had sampled the product. But they had not anticipated the depth of the consumer loyalty to a brand that has been virtually unchanged for generations. Stung by increasingly angry and vocal critics, on July 11, 1985, exactly 79 days after the new version had been introduced, the Company announced the return of the original formula, renamed Coca-Cola classic.

And there was much rejoicing in the streets.

Coke store

I managed to spend only $150. And the stuff I bought is really cool.

My retirement job

Playing a polar bear has to be more fun than being a Wal Mart greeter.

Iowa True Blue

Iowa True Blue was written by Gordon Fischer. Gordon was chair of the third district Democrats back when I was chair of the Benton County Democrats (he was my boss.) He went on to be State Chair and, by all accounts, did a great job.

Gordon stopped writing his blog a year ago. He was an early supporter of Obama and it may be hard to remember but a year ago tensions between the Obama and Clinton camps were running high. Gordon wrote about Bill Clinton staining his reputation like a blue dress he had also stained.

Following the media storm Gordon stopped blogging regularly and closed up shop completely after the election.

When I set up my blog I asked Gordon if it bothered him if I well, plagiarized, his blog title. He assured me he wasn't offended.

It's unfortunate that Gordon has stopped blogging. Most Iowa bloggers are to the right of Rush Limbaugh and Steve King. Gordon's a funny guy and his contributions are missed.

In Ben we trust

Bush deserves credit. It's like praising the "challenged kid" who finally ties his shoelaces... but Bush does deserve credit for appointing Bernanke. I listened to Treasury Secretary Geithner's announcement (underwhelming) and several hours of Bernanke testifying before congress.

Bernanke is very impressive. There is no longer a question of whether or not we're screwed. The question now is "How bad will it be." Bernanke gave no easy answers but he calmly explained everything he was doing to improve the situation. He didn't talk in circles or pat himself on the back (like his predescessor Alan Greenspan).

*****
According to stats along the side this is my 500th post. I'll make the same request I've made many times before: Please make comments. I've removed the time consuming log in requirements. I'll try to answer questions from the comments and not get (too) defensive on the criticisms.

Gallup

I like Gallup's poll showing Obama with a 67% approval rating and Republicans in congress with a 58% disapproval rating. Obama may well be making headway on the idea of getting beyond partisan politics.

Unfortunately, the economic policy proposals thus far have been uninspiring. He gave the Republicans incredible ground on his initial proposal and seemed shocked that they didn't jump on board. To get just 3 Republican moderates they've jetisoned some of the more stimulative parts of the stimulus bill.

Andrew Sullivan approves of Obama's maneuverings on the stimulus. His post here and here give me some hope for the future... Sullivan believes Obama is using a rope-a-dope strategy that he used effectively against Clinton and McCain. Take the high road, use words like "post-partisan", fluster your opponents into saying or doing stupid things and then go in for the kill.

Obama may be successful and become the most loved depression era president since, well, the last depression. I, however, would prefer that we avoid the depression. What good is being bi-partisan, post-partisan or whatever they are calling it these days, if the end result is bad legislation?

With no repercussions

The Dean of the College of Business stuck his head in my office.

"Did you know that 6 of your students went to the Vice Chancellor to say that you had lost their finals last term?"

"Umm, no... I didn't lose six finals. I still have all of the finals and can look them up if it would help."

"Oh, no, it's not necessary. I assured the provost and chancellor that everything was OK."

*****
Wow.

Wow on so many levels. Students going to the Vice Chancellor has no equivalent in the US. The Vice Chancellor is the person in charge of the entire educational system of the country.

I knew a couple of my students had wasta (that's the term for having connections). I knew my life would be easier if I simply gave them good grades. I didn't. They went to the Chancellor.

In my perfect world I would produce the finals, prove them wrong and they'd be punished. Instead, I guess I should be happy I still have a job. These are probably the only C's or D's these guys have ever received... and that's the good feeling I can take away from this.

Michael Steele

Steele is the guy who beat the racist guy to become chair of the Republican National Committee. Essentially, he is now the face of the Republican Party.

As an American I cheered his election. Republicans will not be helped by a guy who had a membership at a South Carolina country club and didn't notice there weren't any blacks.

Now, as a Democrat, I cheer his election because Steele is a frickin' moron.

Steele went on This Week with Stephanopolous and said, "These road projects we're talking about have an end point." In Steele's logic the job goes away, therefore, the spending was not worth it.

Yeah, you're right. Why did we spend billions building the interstates? Those workers who built it are no longer building it, right? Total waste of money.

Update: Totally unrelated... but I wouldn't be happy if I were a Republican and Steele axed the entire RNC strategy division.

Wow, keep it up Republicans and we'll have 90% of the electorate on my side. But don't worry, we will still give in to you at least 50% because that's our new president's "post-partisan" way.

CNN

In election news back home CNN was the preferred channel. (Get past the overrated Wolf Blitzer.) The "Best Political Team on TV" with Anderson Cooper beat MSNBC and Fox.

Living in this country we get very little CNN and mostly it is CNN International. This is a shift from A league to C league. I have tried and tried to watch but the programming can't match the quality of Channel 2 back home. (For those non-Cedar Rapidians reading, that's an insult.)

Nevertheless I looked forward to the tour of CNN complex in Atlanta. Unfortunately I have no pictures because cameras were not allowed. We went through a security process that rivals any airport. We then went up an escalator that took more than two minutes to get to the top of eight stories and learned that it's the longest escalator in the world (very believable).

We had a chance to see the CNN news floor live and in action. It was interesting to see the cameras facing the anchors. I remember seeing teleprompters from a visit to Channel 9 when I was in elementary. Basically the anchors read from a screen below the camera. Today's teleprompters project an image to a plate of glass in front of the camera. The anchor staring right at the words appears to you and me to be looking right into the camera. When they are doing an interview they are looking into the camera seeing exactly what we see.

We moved onto the CNN Headline News where we watched workers play solitaire. We learned that Headline News has no "new" news generation, it's all recycled news from the regular CNN.

That explains a lot.

We then saw CNN International. We heard nice words about how CNN has more international bureaus than any other organization but the woman giving the tour didn't stop for a second for me to ask, "So why is the coverage so lame?"

Anyhow, I'm glad I took the tour. According to Matt, whose been on the tour 3 times now, it is a much better tour than it was in the past.

Overall, I'd say CNN was pretentious. The tour struck me as claiming that they were the end all of news. Sorry. I don't watch CNN anymore and I'm able to keep informed.

More bad news for Nepal

Many Nepalese head to other countries to work. They don't make much money but they send home whatever they can to support their families.

The guys who do my laundry are an example: They work in the Emirates and, if they are lucky, get to go back to Nepal every 2-3 years. They routinely send home small sums of money to help their families survive.

According to this article 150,000 Nepalese have lost their jobs abroad and been sent home. This is a double whammy to an already desperately poor country. First, the returning workers add to the already high unemployment rate. Second, the money from those workers was a lifeline that's been cut off. Poor third world countries need hard currency (like the dollar) . Workers abroad help prop up the country. When those workers return en masse the results are devastating.

Sometimes a graph helps explain

Click on the graph above to see it more clearly. It shows job losses in the previous two recessions as compared to job losses in the current recession.

The economy is in free fall. There is no comparison to recent recessions. I am disappointed in Obama because he created a package with a bunch of useless sweeteners to attract Republicans. If this package ends up being insufficient -and I believe it will - Republicans are the real winners. They get all the tax cuts they could have hoped for AND get the chance to blame the recession deepening on the Democrats.

I've had enough of this post-partisan bullshit. Hillary would never have made this mistake.

"Independent study"

That's what spring break is called here. I'm not sure why.

Hmmm... Spring break in the Emirates. I wonder what it is like for the typical college student. According to those who have been there, the beaches here rival any in America, but... needless to say, there would be no body shots, MTV wet t-shirt contests or public drunkenness.

That's good. It will leave them more time for independent study.

Calvin and Hobbes

I spent most of today writing my syllabi for the next term catching up on news. A good part of my day has been reading economic analysis. Unfortunately, the news is grim; we are screwed. I did come across this cartoon linked on economist Greg Mankiw's blog.
People who read this 15 years ago had to smile. People today will groan.

*****
I have plenty of posts in the future about the Coke Museum and the trip back. Right now I'm trying (unsuccessfully) to unwind. And I can't find my Ambien. I know I brought it back...

Good dad, bad dad

Good dad: Accompanies son on a field trip.

Bad dad: Uses meth while on the field trip.

Missed marketing idea

Upon returning home I threw out old food including this box of Frosted Flakes. (I ate a bowl or two back in October.) Then I read that Kelloggs dropped Micheal Phelps because he smoked pot.

Dumb, dumb move. Kelloggs should have embraced Phelps. Imagine the sales increase if Frosted Flakes became the stoners' first choice in munchies.

I can see the ad campaign: Tony says "It's the bowl you eat after the bowl you smoke..."

The back of the box would include simple instructions with pictures explaining: Pour Flakes into bowl. Add milk. Eat with spoon.

Mommy, wow! I'm a big kid now!

All day I've been repeating the "Mommy, wow! I'm a big kid now!" line from the old pull up ads. Why? After living in my apartment for 3 months I have graduated from sleeping on the couch to my bed. I brought two eggshell cushions with me from America. It makes the hard mattress soft enough for Goldilocks me. Finally I have a place to put my $200 sheets.

And their always glad you came!

It's not Cheers but it's close.
I stopped at my favorite fast food joint on my first day back. There were three women behind the counter. Two of the them were elated to see me:

"Hello sir! Welcome back!"
"Where have you been?"

I explained my absence and they quickly told the trainee that I always get a mushroom and swiss or a big roastbeef with upsize fries and water instead of Pepsi.

I sat waiting for my meal to go and one of the lady's brought it to me and escorted me to the door and opened it for me.

All 100% true; I couldn't make this up.