In the run up to the 2008 election Nate Silver's analysis at 538 was a daily must read. He not only summarized all of the polls but he also explained why some polls were good and some were bad.
Nate believes if the state of Iowa voted today an anti-gay marriage amendment would pass with 56% of the vote. By 2012 he projects it will be just slightly over 50%... meaning, too close to call.
I think his numbers are slightly optimistic, but this is the guy who nailed pretty much every primary last spring.
Well, if they can somehow get the legislature NOT to pass it at least once- the model says that the amendment would fail in 2013. I think that if people have enough time to see that the world hasn't come crashing down on them by letting gays marry - perhaps it will end up being a "no big deal" issue. One can only hope...
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