Obama will win 365 electoral votes:
Kerry states = 252... add Iowa (7), New Mexico (5) and Colorado (9) = 273 and enough to win.
That's his firewall. No Ohio or Florida. All he needs is Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.
I think he'll also win Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Florida (27), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13) and Indiana (11). Total 364. Add one electoral vote from Nebraska and Obama gets 365 EV.
Sleepers are Georgia (with a huge African American turnout in early voting), North Dakota, and Montana. I am a bit skeptical giving North Carolina and Indiana to Obama... but I believe in the ground game. Obama has solid ground games in both and McCain didn't until recently (if at all).
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Senate: Dems pick up Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, North Carolina and Alaska. That's seven. Add the state I want my side to win most of all: Minnesota. There's a slight chance in Georgia, Mississippi, and Kentucky. My bet is that my side gains 8. Nine would be great because it would mean 60 Dems and a filibuster proof majority, but I'm not holding my breath.
On the House side I'm not following things much. Most predictions are in the 25-30 gain. The current Dem majority is only 15. Any padding would be good.
Minnesota is going to be tough. We are being DELUGED with ads and they are all very negative. I know you're shocked and surprised by that. :)
ReplyDeleteWe'll see what we can do - we'll be out campaigning most of the day on Tuesday. So, if Franken doesn't win - it won't be because we haven't done our part!