A fitting end to 2012

December 31 was an absolutely miserable day. Mostly un-noteworthy but highlighted by a seven eight hour bumpy bus ride from Pokhara to Kathmandu.  Just not fun. Today I am in Kathmandu with a Nepalese friend who has never seen the Monkey Temole or other cool places in Kathmandu. I hope 2013 starts better than 2012.

Nepal 2012

(Blogging is not easy on the iPad - typing in the virtual keyboard is slow.)

Shortly after arriving in Kathmandu I thought, "Uh-oh, thus trip was a mistake."  The skies were overcast and the temperatures in the low 40's and dropping fast in the late afternoon. I haven't become a total wimp in my time in the desert; I can handle these temps. The problem is that the hotels have no heating. As it fell to just above freezing I realized Sri Lanka with lows of 75 might have been a better plan.

I spent two unremarkable days in Kathmandu. The daytime weather was fine but the nights were cold and my hotel had no hot water. I went three days without a shower.

On my third day I took an early morning bus to Pokhara. The journey is just over 100 miles but it takes 7 hours over the winding paths up the mountains and the three stops for bathroom/eating.

Pokhara was also overcast and cold the day I arrived. This vacation was beginning to look like a major mistake.

Fortunately, I was greeted at the bus stop by the staff of the hotel.  It was a nice gesture for my travel weary state of mind. After reaching the hotel I realized I left my iPad on the bus. My friend Vikram got me back to the station quickly and the driver had it. I paid him 1000 rupees ($12). I think we were both happy.

The next morning the sun came out and it warmed up nicely. The daily pattern for the past week has been warm days - shorts and T-shirt weather followed by nights just above freezing. By late afternoon the temperatures start dropping like a rock. By bedtime I am covering with four blankets and have no desire to get out of bed until the sun comes out again.

This has been a laid back trip. I've already hit most of the touristy places on previous trips.  My friend Sanjaya and I visited a cave full full of bats and a Hindu monestary. We also climbed a mountain to visit a Peace Pagoda. (OK, "mountain" might be overstating it just a bit, but it felt like climbing a mountain.)

I also spent a day with my friend Vikram visiting Hindu temple that is built on a man-made island and we spent hours out on the lake watching the para gliders against the backdrop of the Himalayas.

The rest of the time I have been reading. I have completed four books about the 2012 election and I'm on my fifth. Spending two hours/day reading about politics for the past year was apparently not enough.

Christmas Eve was amazingly cool. The hotel guests and staff had a communal BBQ. A chef prepared lots of pork and chicken in a garlic, ginger, and red wine marinade.   Lots of food, lots of beer and good conversation. Very nice.

So a week has passed and I have a week to go in Nepal. So far, so good.

Be like Mike!

My friends Mike and Dawn love going to Vegas. They go almost every year and I think there have been years where they have gone more than once. They go other places, too, but they really like Vegas so they keep going back.

There's nothing wrong with that... Go where you know you will have a good time.

So I have NO IDEA why booking a trip to Nepal was so hard for me. I felt like it is a waste somehow given that I have never visited Beirut, Cairo, Thailand, etc.

And what makes it even dumber to get worked up?  I booked using airline miles. So the flight cost $40 in taxes and fees.

Anyhow, I am in Kathmandu. It is different than previous trips - 1. Cold, 2. It is low season for tourists.  I wanted to experience low season. So far it's not been good but I am looking forward to going to the (warmer) resort town of Pokhara tomorrow. Visiting my friend Sanjaya will be nice.

Traveling on narrow mountain pass roads on the last day of earth's existence may not be so wise...

National Day

For the UAE National Day I wore the traditional robe and head scarf as I have for the past two years.

In this picture I am with my friend Mansour.  (Mansour was with me on the trip to Canada last spring.)  For the record he's wearing the egal (headbands) and headscarf (guttra) the right way.  I am not.

My American boss saw me in this and said, "You are just too white for this combination."

I thought "He's right.  I'm one step away from being recruited by the klan."

So I went out and had my beard colored.

Pictures tomorrow.

Bowling

I said to a friend, "Last night, three Afghanis and I went to a bowling alley..."

She started to giggle.  I looked at her strange.

She said, "Oh, this is not the start of a joke?"

*****
Let me start over:  I appreciate getting to know my Afghani students.  These guys were born and raised in Afghanistan and were pre-teens when the US invaded.  They are from the northern part of the country which never really liked the Taliban so they were not upset to see the fall of the government.

Largely, however, we do not talk politics.  I have my thousand questions about their culture and they've been very patient answering them.

And then we went bowling.

It was my first time bowling in 20 years.  On my third and final game I broke 100.  I came in last but I was still doing my happy dance.  The guy in the black shirt was using a 15 pound ball and he literally threw it down the lane.  I said, "I'm surprised you don't get a strike every time.  If I were those pins I would jump to get out of the way!"

Lame Christmas party

I've hosted four Thanksgivings, four Christmas parties and three wine tastings in my time here.  I guess I was due for a lame party.  It wasn't bad - nobody yelled, nobody cried, nobody even said a discouraging word.  All of the guests will remain on Santa's "nice" list.

But it was just not a *good* party... and it is largely my fault.  I have new neighbors this year and I thought the idea of a joint party where we all leave our doors open and provide guests with the opportunity to mingle would be merry and festive.

It wasn't.  Guests seemed glued to the party they had been invited.  Those that did cross into another party did so timidly and cautiously asked permission.  Party fail.

Ann (who I knew would give it to me straight) said she had a great time because she had a chance to talk to some people she never gets to talk to but that the 3 party format just didn't work.  "I knew ____ was somewhere here because I saw her walk in but I didn't want to go hunt at the other parties to look for her."

******
My revelation:

Wine = Good.

Mulled wine = Great!

Mulled wine with orange juice?

Well, if I had it a restaurant the guy at the next booth would be asking to have what I'm having.

What happens when I pose life's questions on FB

Last night I posted a simple statement on Facebook:

A friend wanted something I had but was no longer using. He couldn't afford it so I gave it to him. Several months later he sold it. This bothers me but I don't know if it should. Opinions? Does it matter if the used item was worth $250?

I had no idea this would generate 50+ responses.  I so wish I could post a link to it here for the two blog readers who are not on FB, but hey Mike and Matt - get on FB!  

The initial responses were basically calling my friend an ingrate.  Then came a comment from a college friend who - like me - grew up reading Dear Abby.  Abby was adamant that a gift is a gift is a gift.  Once you have given it be happy for whatever joy/utility it brings to the person.  If that meant selling it, so be it.  Why not be happy for the person?

As the comments progressed more came along the "gift" lines.  Then my Republican friend Karey had to give me the low blow that this experience is slowing moving me to her side.

*****

The story condensed to just a few lines for FB is real.  It was not, however, the story of one person.  I could have written this about at least four - if not five - people here and several back in the US.  

So the issue is not the people I have given things to, but rather me:  Am I "that guy" who gives things and wants the constant thanks and reminders I gave it?  I sure hope not.  Do I give away too much?  Am I trying to compensate for the 10 year old me who had no friends?

In the past couple of years I have felt as comfortable and secure as I have at any point in my life... which is to say my bundle of insecurities have been contained.  Yet, these are moments where I think, "Oh, yeah, Mr. Confident?  You are still that child who doesn't look forward to recess because you fear not having any friends to play with."

*****

Tonight I received this text from a close friend who assumed my post was about him and.. well...

"I enjoyed reading 52 comments about what kind of person I am.  I don't get such a chance every day.  I will get money to you tonight and the remainder I owe I will get to you next week.  As always it is hard to tell how much I really owe you because you have done for me things that I can't estimate their value in money.  So I will pay you what I know you gave me and be thankful for the rest."

My heart sank.  We spent an hour messaging back and forth.  He made the point that he wished I had come to him before posting this on FB and I agreed he was right, but the issue was not really him but me.  I ended with:

The bottom line is that my life is better with you in it.  I think you feel the same way.  That's all that really matters. The rest we can work out later.

I like the idea of "paying it forward."  It is what parents do naturally for their children.  It is most certainly what Spellman did for me and hundreds of others.  If I can help a friend I need to see it as "paying it forward" and not get worked up about getting credit.

In other words, I need to be a better person.

Election recap

I predicted all 50 states right.  Someone really famous (in the world of geeks) also got all 50 states right:  Nate Silver, whose blog I read religiously.  I did not, however, copy him.  At the time I made my prediction I  think he still had Florida and Virginia going for Romney.  

The prediction that Obama would win 330-206 seemed like a gutsy call given that Gallup had Romney ahead several points among likely voters.  I'm not bragging; I was honestly scared on election day.  It seemed like O was headed for a landslide win but how could so many on the right be predicting a Romney win?

If I were a Republican I would be pissed.  It is one thing for a campaign to have false bravado to buck up the troops.  It's another thing to just be dead wrong in your internal polling.  In other words, I'd rather have my side lie to me and say, "We're gonna win!" rather than to be totally clueless.

Romney was so sure he was going to win that he had no concession speech?  Seriously??  The President's team was fairly certain of victory but they still had a concession speech in the can.

The most encouraging thing to me in the past few weeks is that the President is playing to his strengths in the negotiations on the poorly named "fiscal cliff."  It was his horrible performance in 2011 that gave me fear he would not be reelected. 

And it wasn't just the race for President... Gaining two seats in the Senate was unthinkable a year ago.  In the House, Democrats received more votes but Republicans still have the majority due to gerrymandering.  Pot legalized in two states.  Four states voted either for gay marriage or against a gay marriage ban.  

I'm proud to be an American.

2012 predictions

I predict Obama will win 332 electoral votes vs. 206 for Romney.  This would mean a sweep of almost all of the battleground states:  Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.  Romney will take North Carolina.

You can see the map here:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkGB

I am unsettled by the prediction of Colorado and Florida.  I wouldn't be surprised if Romney carried either or both.  I also think there is a chance Romney could pull a big upset in Pennsylvania.  The Philadelphia area - which votes heavily Democratic - was hit hard by the storm.  The good news is that Obama could lose all three and still win 274 - 264.

The senate will remain 53 - 47 (unchanged) for the Democrats and in the House Democrats will pick up 5-8 seats.  This prediction would be good news if true for the senate.  Only a few months it looked like Republicans would take over now that seems virtually impossible.  On the House side a pickup of 5-8 is a bit of a disappointment vs. expectations.

My map may seem more generous to the president than the last polls warrant.  Here's my reasoning:  1. There's been a subtle but real move towards the president nationally of 1-3 points since Sandy. 2.  The most recent national poll for NBC asked the undecideds about how they feel about Obama and Romney.  Obama was viewed far more favorably so it is reasonable to assume that if these people vote at all - which many won't... but if they do Obama should fare well.

If anyone else wants to make a prediction using 270towin.com e-mail or put it in the comments and I will place them here.

The best predictors for Obama

You can look at this summary of nine prognosticators who all predict an Obama win or...

You can listen to the right's two favorite pundits:  Karl "Turd Blossom" Rove and Dick "I love to suck the toes of my prostitute" Morris.  For quite a while both have been predicting a solid Romney win.

On Tuesday Dick Morris went further:  He predicted a landslide for Romney.  He even titled his story, "Here comes the landslide."  That's as definitive as it gets.  Romney not only wins, but he wins in a landslide that will sweep Republicans into a 53-47 control of the senate.

On Saturday he changes his tune with, "Sudden danger signs in polling.."  Umm, no.  Polling has been remarkably consistent.  At this point there's a point or two bump for a Obama in a few polls but nothing dramatic.

Now, Rove, too is saying the race has changed because of Sandy.

I do think Sandy was a game changer.  If I'm right the change was from a nail-biting win for Obama to a solid win for Obama.  It was never from "landslide Romney to win for Obama."

This if nothing but major CYA and nothing more.  And when Fox news' favorite guys for red meat are saying, "Uh-oh, things don't look so good anymore" you can believe them on this one.  They want to retain their jobs as pundits so to say at the last minute, "Oh, now the world is different" is just enough to keep their jobs.

Random campaign thoughts

First, the humorous:  Republican blogs and the Hannity Forum turned it up to 11 when they heard that Romney was up by 4 points in Pennsylvania.  (Pennsylvania is not considered a battleground.)  So Romney is winning a state that was considered safe for Obama!?! Wow!!

The real story?  The poll is two weeks old and was a Republican internal poll.  Not much to see here folks but it was nice to shine a glimmer of hope for them.

Second, there's a line from the first debate that haunts me.  In discussing health care proposals Romney said his plan covered pre-existing conditions.  The problem is that his plan doesn't.  It only covers pre-existing conditions if you have been continuously covered.

Why does this bother me so much?  Romney's attempt to appear moderate may actually convince someone who - like me - has pre-existing conditions to vote for him because Romney implied there is no difference.  Under Romney's plan I will not be able to buy insurance.  Under Obamacare I will be able to buy insurance in 2014.

There are lies and then there are cynical, terribly hurtful lies.  Telling 90% of those with pre-existing conditions that they will be covered when they won't is...  is...

I guess I don't have a word for it.

State of the race

Halloween - a day that is supposed to scare us - was the first day I have felt good since October 2, the night of the first debate.  Obama took a solid and consistent lead and drove it into the ground with a debate performance that I will never understand.

For most of the past month I have scared... scared of the chance that Romney will actually win.  Rasmussen has him up in national and state polls, but then again Rasmussen has a Republican bias.  Gallup, who I generally trust, has Romney up by 5 points in the national polls.  As I've said before, if Romney is really winning by 5 points the state polls don't matter; Romney is our next president.

So why did I finally feel good yesterday?  Here are the state polls from October 31:

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of Cincinnati)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Gravis)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (We Ask America)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Romney 45%, Obama 44% (University of Iowa)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 42% (EPIC-MRA)

North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44% (Roanoke)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (Marquette Law)

Obama doesn't need to win Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado or even Iowa to remain president.  By these polls Romney will have to run the table and win everything in sight to be the next president.

Like I said, I've not felt well about this election since the first debate.  At this point I'm not cocky; I'm still scared.  But my way of looking at the world is:  "Would I rather be in the other guy's shoes?"  As scared as I am, I'd rather be on my side given these polls.

Herman Cain, seriously?

I have been blogging for a little over four years and I've had posts disappear and reappear for no reason.  I was a little surprised tonight when I logged on saw the post right below this one.  I wrote it at least a year ago.

I have no idea what else to say.  I was going to delete the post below, but hey, since I don't write much anymore a post is a post so I will it stand.  :)

Trained animal?

I am following the implosion of Herman Cain with great interest.
Ann Coulter:
That's why our blacks are so much better than their blacks.

Polling mania

Yesterday Gallup had Romney up 52-45 among likely voters.  

The state polls of the swing states show Obama winning enough swing states to win the electoral college.  In fact, he could lose a few where he is a few points ahead and still get over 270.

Yesterday NBC News/Marist had a poll in Iowa showing Obama up 51-43.  

Today PPP (considered reliable) has a poll with Romney up 49-48.

Wow.  I'd be happy to take the average of these two polls and say Obama is up 49-46.

In 2004 I scored 48 out 50 states right.  The two states I missed were Ohio and Iowa.  Iowa.  My state and I got it wrong.  Bush won Iowa that year by .6% and Ohio by 1.1%.  

Bottom line:  If Gallup is right and Romney is leading 6-7% in the nation the electoral college won't matter, Romney is president.  If it is more like a 2% race either way than each state counts and all eyes have to be on Ohio.  As much as I love Iowa, I just can't see a path to victory for Romney that doesn't include Ohio.

An indecent proposal

I have lived in this apartment for four years.  Tonight I took my second walk in the neighborhood.  A block from my house I was approached by a guy with low English skills.  I quickly realized he was offering sex.  At first I thought he was offering himself but then he quickly said, "I bring Fillipina."

So I was dealing with a pimp.

I have often said that I will stay here as long as it remains interesting and I see new things.  Being solicited 200 yards from my house definitely rates as interesting.

And I wish I could express how unbelievable this is:  I live on the outskirts of town... I can see the open desert from my tiny balcony.  The number of cars that pass in front of my place in a day are counted by the dozens, not the hundreds or thousands.

In other words, it's not quite as rural as where I grew up but it's the next best thing.  I'm pretty sure Newhall, Iowa, doesn't have any pimps.

I get to be a student!

Long story short:  Next Sunday - Tuesday I will be a student again.

The training session is put on by the Harvard Business School with the topic of "negotiations."  I loved my negotiations class in graduate school and even though I suck at bargaining I really, really like negotiations.  (After my work with Spellman on union contracts I think I could have taken a job working in this field.  I am much better negotiating on behalf of someone than I am negotiating for me.)

There is extra value for me to attend this training:  It will be at the company where my university will be doing training in the future and I might, just might, be the point person on it.  To see what they expect in terms of training would be helpful.

As I told my class that next week's classes were canceled I said, "I know this is hard for you to hear because you will miss this class...." and they laughed.  I appreciated that.  If they didn't know me they would have said, "Oh, sir, we will miss you!"

Today I received the material I have to read before next week and I told my class that I was excited to get homework.  Forty students collectively rolled their eyes.

And I laughed.

A huge paycut

Today my boss called me in to say, "Due to new university rules we can't pay you for your work at the entrepreneurship center."  That's a $13,600 pay cut.  

Ouch.

I am not crying because:  

1. I still make good money.
2. There are some other things in the pipeline that could really payoff (see post below).
3. There might be a way to still make this payoff - not as well, but if I can still be paid for the "teaching" part of the entrepreneurship center and, hey, get to go to a conference somewhere cool that might justify the work.
4. The center is stressful and time consuming.  Teaching is not.  If I have to fall back to "just teaching" I'm pretty OK with that.

My friend and co-director Dan has pretty much decided to choose option #4.  

Sullivan - "Did Obama just throw the entire election away?"

When I read Andrew Sullivan's meltdown on Sunday it seemed a bit over-the-top and premature.

Yes, the Pew Poll showing Romney up by 4 was bad news, but...

It was just one poll.  Pew is a reliable pollster but even good pollsters can have 1-in-20 bad polls.  I hoped Pew's Romney 49, Obama 45 was exactly that one oddball poll.

Unfortunately, all other polls released in the past two days confirm Pew's results:  Romney is tied or ahead in all national polls.  Swing state polls are also showing dramatic shifts.

Andrew Sullivan's meltdown was - if anything - prescient and very much worth reading.

A month without Ambien

I last took an Ambien on my flight back here on September 4.  I fell asleep over Canadian airspace and woke up over Turkey.  In other words, I slept for more than half of the 14 hour flight. It doesn't get any better than that!

The transition here was not as good:  I woke up at 4AM for the entire week after I came back.

Falling asleep was not a problem, however, so yippee!

For a month I had no problems falling asleep and dared to wonder, "Is my need for Ambien over?"  On Friday night I was awake until 4AM.  I would have taken an Ambien but since it was the weekend I told myself, "You have no excuse, you can sleep in."

One month has been nice.  It's the longest I've gone without an Ambien since it was first prescribed back in 2004.  I plan to hold out for as long as I can but it seems I've fallen back to the pattern of sleeplessness I know oh, so well.

Oh, the places you'll go! (maybe)

Today was interesting.  I woke up at 4 to read news and watch the big debate.  At 9 I had a meeting to go over a training project proposal - basically people from my university would provide training for a major company in the country.

I have not been involved in this for the past six months.  I didn't ask to be involved and I wasn't asked to be involved.  On Tuesday I was asked if I would look over the materials and come to a meeting on Thursday.  

I read through what the company requested.  I read through what we had prepared for them.  I couldn't connect the dots.  So I went to the meeting today to say, "Thanks for asking, but I don't understand our proposal so I should really bow out."  I didn't have time to get to the second part of my statement.  

In just a few minutes a colleague slammed her computer shut, stormed out of the room and said, "I quit."  

"Wow," I said, "I just said I don't understand!"

Seeing the reaction from the rest of the team it was clear that events played out pretty much as they expected.  (There are people in the world who are scared to say they don't understand.  I never have that fear.  I always acknowledge my ignorance, I'm willing to speak up, and I suspect that's why I was invited.)

In the aftermath, I said, "Look, when it comes to training we have a client who has given us outcomes they want achieved.  Our training sessions have to map back to those outcomes.  This isn't rocket science."

The senior person there said, "The Dean believes we need a point person working with the client on a daily basis... yada, yada, yada... and Steve, he thinks you are right for the position."

Wow.

There are many ways this can fall apart so I'm not planning a move to Abu Dhabi.  (Did I mention the company is 90 miles away? A colleague said, "You wouldn't have to move.  They'll have a driver for you every day."  Seriously.)  Also, there are parts of this that match my talents - client service - and parts of this that don't - the daily grind of task management is not my strength.

Also, HELLO?  I am in this gig for teaching.  I don't want to give up the classroom.

All of this is very premature.  After six months of fighting (which I dutifully kept out of) we now have 2 weeks to create a make-or-break presentation.  If we can't deliver then all of this is for nothing.  

Given Obama's debate performance this is exactly what I need:  A legitimate reason to work and not spend 6 hours/day trolling news sites.

*****
Having re-read this post I think it comes off more "I've come to save the day" than the situation warrants.  I'm not going to take the time to re-write.  There are logical reasons for me to do the new job that have nothing to do with me vs. anyone else in my college.  As an instructor I don't have to publish.  And I have training experience.  Again, it's not rocket science, but as someone with a thousand insecurities it's nice to know I'm appreciated.

First impressions vs. lasting impressions

Mitt Romney won the first debate.  He didn't come off as snobbish.  He was aggressive and he made his points.  The president was cool.  Too cool for me.  Not one mention of the 47%?  Not even a veiled reference of "I'm president of all of the people"?  Romney said, "Maybe I should fire my accountant" and the President didn't respond with a comment about moving money to the Cayman Islands or Swiss bank accounts?  He lobbed a softball to you Mr. President and you didn't strike.

First impression:  Romney won.

The lasting impression, however, may be just as important.  The president came off as, well, presidential.  He came off as the reasonable grownup.  Romney did a good job of keeping his borderline hyperactivity in check but he said some things that will not play as well in the long run:  When asked if he would accept $10 in spending cuts for $1 in new taxes he said, "No."  He also said he wouldn't cut, Medicare, Medicaid, SS, Student Pell grants, etc. AND he would increase military spending.

I want to have faith in the American people that they will see he is promising a free ice cream sundae.

Iowa polling update

Ann Selzer conducts the Iowa Poll for the  Des Moines Register and she certainly knows Iowa better than other pollster.

The Iowa Poll is the gold standard of Iowa polls.  This poll alone showed the come from behind wins for Tom Harkin way back in 1984 against incumbent senator Jepsen.  It showed Vilsack's come from behind win over Lightfoot in 1998.  In 2008 all other polls showed a tight race between Hillary, Edwards and Obama.  The DM Register predicted a blow-out 7 point win for Obama.  They were right and Iowa's former governor was wrong.

Today they are out with a new poll and it shows:
Obama - 49%
Romney - 45%

So Obama is ahead but not by a lot.

Iowa Democrats should be happy but not complacent.  I'm not geeky enough to remember the details but I'm pretty sure Jepsen and Lightfoot had bigger leads a month before the election and still lost.

******
As much I want to think Iowa is the center of the political universe (without Iowa Hillary would be president now instead of Barack), in this election the real center of the universe is Ohio.
A new poll there:
Obama 51%
Romney 42%

This comes after the Romney/Ryan bus trip through Ohio.  Realistically, they'd like to cut their losses and run but there just aren't many good places to run.

Oh, how I wish the election were two days away instead of 37.

Iowa polls

Besides reelecting Obama the greatest joy to sane people of Iowa would be the defeat of Steve King.  He's the biggest embarrassment to come out of Iowa in my lifetime.

Unfortunately, he represents solidly Republican western Iowa.

A new poll shows Iowa's former first lady just behind him:
King: 48%
Vilsack: 45%

*****
Iowa Presidential polls completed in the past ten days:

Obama 50, Romney 42 - Obama up by 8  (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)
Obama 44, Romney 47 - Romney up by 3 (Rasmussen)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (ARG - no link available)
Obama 46, Romney 47 - Romney up by 1 (TIR-Voter/Consumer Research)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (Public Policy Poling - PPP)

Bias in polls has been all the rage on the right for the past two weeks.  "The polls are over sampling Demorats so it is not surprising the Demorats are winning."*

Iowa will be the best state to test their hypothesis.  Above we have 3 polls showing an Obama lead outside of the margin of error - 8 points, 7 points, 7 points.  There are 2 two polls showing a 3 point and 1 point lead for Romney.  The first pollster, Rasmussen, has a high "house-effect" for Republicans.  Basically, his polls always skew 3-5 points better for Republicans than all other polls.

The other poll from TIR-Voter/Consumer Research left me scratching my head.  I've never heard of them.  When I clicked on the link of the organization I found it was sponsored by the Iowa Republican with the story written by Craig Robinson.

YES!  The very same Craig Robinson who I quoted in the post below this one saying Ryan would have to get the "stench of Romney" off of him.  Robinson has written a post saying he was quoted accurately.

I believe NBC-ARG-PPP are right about Iowa.  I think Obama has the state pretty safely.

Why?  My party is winning the ground game.  Of early ballots requested 119,000 were by Democrats, 25,000 were by Republicans.

Democrats have nearly a 5-1 advantage on early voting.

And guess what?  Of the 25,000 Republican requests one is mine.  I never changed my affiliation after the Iowa caucuses in January so I am still a registered Republican.

*  Yes, I know how to spell Democrat.  I've spent enough time reading Republican blogs that I can channel them.

Quote of the day

With friends like these Mitt, well...

Craig Robinson - the former political director for Republicans in the state of Iowa (home of the first contest for Republicans in 2016) said this:

“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him.” 

Unfortunately for him he made the comment to a New York Times  reporter.

Hannity forums

To check on the meltdown on the Republican side I like to check in on Sean Hannity's forums.

Current topics include:
"Can a Christian be a Democrat?"
"Kids aren't like Maochelle's new lunch laws"

Misspelling the First Lady's name is, of course, intentional.  Anytime you can make a communist reference...

What's been fascinating over the past two weeks is how the collective group has moved so quickly through all of the phases of grief:

Denial:  The polls are wrong.  It's just a convention bounce, that's all.
Anger:  Democrats lied so much during the convention it is no wonder they are ahead.
Bargaining:  The debates!  If only Romney kicks ass in the debates he'll be back in this!
Depression:  Obama's going to win and he is going to destroy the only parts of America he hasn't already destroyed.

So when will we see acceptance?  When the Super Pac's switch their spending on Romney to Senate and House candidates.

State of the race - Six weeks out

Two weeks ago I didn't understand the meltdown in the Romney campaign.  Yes, Obama got a convention bounce but not a huge one.  It didn't seem like a time to panic.  But I think the Romney campaign was seeing internal polls showing a shift before the public polls did.  Now a slew of swing state polls have been released and Obama is consistently ahead 4-8 points in all of them.  The most crushing for Romney?  A poll showing Obama head by 4 in North Carolina.  Romney's had a lead for most of the year in NC so that has to hurt.

But THE STATE TO WATCH is Ohio.  If Obama wins Ohio Romney can win the swing states of Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina AND Florida and still lose.

Since 1900 no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio.  (I stopped looking when I got back to 1900, it could have been longer than that.)

Polls show 3 - 8 point lead for Obama in the state but that's not the reason to be depressed if you are in Romney's camp.  The real reason to panic?  Romney's unfavorably rating in Ohio stands at 50.5%.  Only 43.1% view him favorably.  When half of the people don't like you there is no chance you will win.  (Obama's current favorability in Ohio is 55.4)

I had hope to post the graph but I couldn't so if you are interested you can see it all here.

Mitt and Paul Ryan will be spending the next three days camped out in Ohio with hopes to turn it around.  It may seem dumb to put so much time and energy in a state that seems hopeless but when the alternative is trying to sway many small states (like Iowa) camping out in Ohio seems like the least bad option.

*****
The biggest tell that the wheels have fallen off the campaign bus:  Former Minnesota Governor Pawlenty resigning as national co-chair to take a multi-million dollar lobbying job.  If Romney had been elected there were several cabinet posts for him to choose from.  Pawlenty saw the writing on the wall and decided to take the money and run.  No rat has ever jumped faster from a sinking ship.

* New blog rule:  No more than two metaphors per paragraph. *

A Facebook birthday by the numbers

This year 172 posted birthday wishes on my FB wall.  Last year it was 175.  In 2010 it was 116 and in 2009 it was 54 posts

Trust me I don't keep these stats I just had to look them up and the reason was not vanity.

The reason?  I pretty much only check FB on mobile - phone or iPad.  On mobile you don't see birthdays so I know I have missed most of my friends' birthdays over the past year.  I would have expected the number of "Happy birthdays!" to be way lower this year and I am surprised they were not.

*****
My friend Travis made me think of this when he posted on the cupcake picture below that he felt bad he had forgotten my birthday.  I suspect he missed it because he, too, only sees FB on mobile.

(Never mind that I know his birthday - May 13 - and that it is the same day as Sandy's anniversary...  It's no big deal; I'm just a better friend.)

Coca-Cola cupcakes!

Some former students surprised me today with Coca-Cola birthday cupcakes!

Conversations

Last night I met up with a former student from Egypt.  In the course of conversation I asked for his thoughts on the uprisings in Egypt and Libya.  I said, "First, it was not a film, it is just a trailer.  Second, the trailer was awful.  If there was no uprising NOBODY would have ever seen it."

He replied that governments have people in every country they can call on to make problems.  I said, "Really?"  He seemed shocked at my naivete. He agreed that the outrage was ridiculous and based on something stupid but...

The protesters were paid squadrons from Obama.  

Wow, if only the Romney campaign could get a hold of that!

He explained that Obama is doing this to generate support before the election.  I said, "I appreciate your giving me your honest view of the situation.  I absolutely, 100%, disagree.  Creating fear of Muslims is just not something that would help Obama.  Those that are scared of Muslims vote Republican."

*****

Tonight I had a conversation with a former student who is now living in Canada.  He is not excited about the prospect of cold temperatures and the requisite clothing:

winter in canada women will be like wearing Hijab - showing nothin

I laughed out loud.  I suspect he will find that there are dance bars and other places where women don't wear anything close to a hijab (head scarf).

Best reader reaction

I've been all over this 47% story and here's the best reader reaction I've read:

"A candidate might stick his foot in his mouth.  A candidate might shoot himself in the foot.  But only Mitt Romney can stick his foot in the mouth and then shoot it."

Why the water cooler matters

I was happy to see the Mitt Romney video saying that the 47% of the population who don't pay federal income taxes are "victims" and "dependent on the government."

Happy because I think this is the nail in the coffin of his candidacy and because I've heard the same thing over and over listening to right wing talk radio and reading right wing blogs.  It's just nice to have it out in the open.

First, the 47% Romney identifies as moochers includes the elderly, students, and the working poor.  Here's a good breakdown.

Second, I find it highly ironic because Romney is part of the 47%!  His income for the past couple of years has come from interest made from investments.  He has not "income" therefore, he has not paid income taxes.

Third, read the reactions:

David Brooks:  "Personally, I think he’s a kind, decent man who says stupid things because he is pretending to be something he is not — some sort of cartoonish government-hater. But it scarcely matters. He’s running a depressingly inept presidential campaign.

Brooks also asks:  "Who are these freeloaders? Is it the Iraq war veteran who goes to the V.A.? Is it the student getting a loan to go to college? Is it the retiree on Social Security or Medicare?"

Rich Lowry:  "... he should make it clear that he doesn’t think they are half the country, and also make it clear that he knows many hard-working people don’t pay federal income taxes, although they do pay other taxes and if they could earn more income, would pay federal income taxes, too. The overall impression of Romney at this event is of someone who overheard some conservative cocktail chatter and maybe read a conservative blog or two, and is thoughtlessly repeating back what he heard and read."

David Frum:  "Mitt Romney has just committed the worst presidential-candidate gaffe since Gerald Ford announced in 1976 that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe."

So who are Brooks, Lowry, and Frum?  Conservative Republicans.

******
I titled this post, "Why the water cooler matters."  A campaign is lost when supporters think, "Meh, that's not worth defending."  It's a feeling I remember well back in 2004.  Kerry's remark that he voted for the defense appropriation bill before he voted against it actually made sense if you heard the entire quote... but I didn't defend it when my colleagues made fun of it around the office.  It just wasn't worth it.

Romney's supporters are going to have a hard time defending a quote that calls low paid workers, students, uniformed military and senior citizens moochers.

Again, as a long time political geek I have never, never seen a campaign go down this quickly.

Blogs/links I added and why

First, I deleted the Iowa politics link because (sadly) they stopped updating information months ago.  It is a horrible thing when a blog suddenly goes silent.

Err, wait a minute....

Of the links I added:  Electoral Vote is the most interesting.  I've been following this guy since 2004.  He scours the web for every possible poll for every state.  Nobody has more up-to-date information than him.  This election cycle he has a fascinating link called "This day in 2008."  I find it incredibly hard to believe that Obama is in better shape in the middle of September 2012 than he was in the middle of September 2008.  But then I remember that the Lehman collapse came on September 15 and most people at this point didn't realize Sarah Palin was Sarah Palin.

First Read is for political junkies.  It is primarily written by Chuck Todd who is pretty much the Dean of Washington political pundits.  

I also added the Gallup daily tracking poll.  Gallup's management leans Republican but their data seems to be clean.  It's kind of like Nate Silver who writes the 538 blog (also linked to the right).  Nate is certainly an Obama supporter but his polling analysis is solid enough that nobody questions it.  He calls it as it is and had no problem saying the Republicans would win a landslide in 2010.  

State of the race

As a political junkie I can't think of many times where I've seen a presidential race turn so quickly on so little real news.  Think about it:  Clinton gave a good speech defending Obama.  Obama gave a mediocre (by Obama standards) speech accepting the nomination.

Within days the Romney campaign went off the rails saying things like, "We'll repeal Obamacare but keep the parts that are popular."  And, "People making between $200,000 and $250,000 are middle class."  And then he questioned whether Obama would want to take "In God we trust" off of our coins.  And then there is the jump-the-gun response to the attacks on the embassies.

I have never seen a campaign go from confident to freaked out this quickly.  Yes, McCain rolled the dice with picking Palin but he was solidly behind at that time.  He had to roll the dice.  Romney was a point below dead even a week ago.

For every campaign there is a book or two that does in-depth reporting on each campaign.  In 2008 it was a book called "Game Change" and I wrote several posts about it.  Win or lose for my side, I look forward to reading the book because something caused Romney to become unhinged in the past week and I can't wait to read the back story.

The election day is still over six weeks away so there's no champagne bottles being popped here... but I am pinching myself with disbelief at my side's change of fortune.

Returning to the Emirates

I came.  I saw.  I ate everything I saw.

I am returning to the Emirates 15-20 pounds heavier than when I left.  On this gluttony tour of duty I left no sausage (wurst) in Germany behind or BLT or fried potatoes in the US to waste.  I took it all for the team.

For my flight back today I hope I am held up by VP candidate Paul Ryan flying in and out of Cedar Rapids at around the time my plane is supposed to take off.  I asked for an earlier flight to Atlanta but they (Delta) wouldn't do it.

Assuming all goes well, this should be a decent flight:  Cedar Rapids to Atlanta, couple of hours layover and then a direct flight to Dubai.

Cedar Rapids to Atlanta:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL5068

Atlanta to Dubai:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL8

When you go to bed tonight I will be on the plane and I'll still  be on it until 11AM Iowa time tomorrow.  It's just under 14 hours.

Flight to Iowa

I will be flying from Frankfurt to Detroit on Delta:

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL143/history/20120815/0740Z/EDDF/KDTW

The flight will start in the middle of the night in the US and end around noon central time.  I am so used to 14 hour flights that an 8 hour flight seems like no big deal.

From Detroit I fly to Cedar Rapids with an expected arrival of 4:20.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/FLG3871/history/20120815/2015Z/KDTW/KCID

*****
Having only traveled to a few countries outside of North America, I don't know what is "normal", but Germany seemed more like home than any place I've been.  I will be leaving here with a smile on my face and so very happy my friend Lukas was such a great friend/guide.

There are moments where I feel sorry for myself.  I have to remember experiences like this and remember how unbelievably lucky I am.

Summer 2012: For Iowa this a rare picture

The 6-10 day outlook is for below normal temperatures.  I plan to go to the State Fair on Friday and the forecast high is 72.

I HAVE NEVER been to the state fair on a day with a high of 72.  So in a summer with extreme heat I will be going to the fair on a day with fantastic weather.

And I'm Germany having fantastic weather.  Locals can't believe how great it is.

To say my luck changed in 2008 may be an understatement.

Flight to Germany

I'm sitting in the lounge with two hours to kill before they start boarding my flight.  There were no lines at check-in, security or immigration.  I have never been processed so quickly!

My normal flight tracking website isn't working so well so I am trying a different one.  This is kinda cool:  If you click on this it should show all flights by Etihad.  I am leaving at 5PM CDT Monday and arriving in Frankfurt at 2AM.

http://flightaware.com/live/fleet/ETD

My friend Lukas is meeting me at the airport.  I will do a sight-seeing tour of Frankfurt on Tuesday.  On Wednesday we're headed to southern Germany by train to see the region where he grew up.  At the end of the week we are headed to the central part of Germany to see where my Great-Great-Grandfather came from.  Lukas has already contacted a woman there who knows all the local residents of the small town.  If there are any Kranz or Werning families there I'm sure she'll be able to point the way.

I'm going home!

I have checked fares every day for 3 months.  They have been remarkably consistent.  Actually, as a geek, I can say they have never been this consistent.  As the price of oil dropped I hoped the fares would drop and they did but only about $80.  If were paid a dollar per hour for checking fares I would lose money.

Anyhow, the ticket has been purchased and I headed to Germany on August 7.  I will spend 8 glorious days trying to find anyone who has met a relative of my family and I will be back in CR on August 15.

I was home last summer, Christmas, and spring break.  After three trips home in one year I am shocked that booking the ticket has given such an adrenalin high.  I have a quiz to write!  I am in no mood to write a quiz!

The roll of the dice: I will be in Iowa until Tuesday, September 4, arriving here late on September 5.  I *cough* was supposed to report to work on Monday, September 3.  I said to my boss, "Really?  Leave during Labor Day weekend?"  He lived in the US for 20 years so he knows it is our last major holiday of summer so he said, "I don't care, but I'm not the university.  So if anyone there cares you might lose some pay."

Let's hope I don't.

I'm going home!  I'm going home!

As a M*A*S*H fan all I can think is Colonel Henry Blake saying the same thing.  I'm gonna be optimistic and expect that the North Koreans won't shoot my plane out of the sky.

Bad Steve

I really meant to post every day this month.  I'm only 14 days short of that happening.

My classes have their final tomorrow.  I spent several days writing and re-writing 4 versions of the test.  Getting them printed and collated was yesterday's task.  Assuming the test goes smoothly at this time tomorrow I will be grading.

Good Steve
I spent four hours today trying to help a friend get everything lined up for moving out out of the country.  My good deed.

I swear I have more interesting stories to tell... just give me time.

I saw this on FB:

I am that friend. No relationship in decades yet I seem to attract people wanting to talk about theirs.  Many times I have said, "Do you really want advice from me?  The guy who doesn't have a bad track record only because he has NO track record?"

The ethics of selling sugar water

In the past month I've had less Coke than I have for any month since I was 12.  How can I be that precise?  I was 12 when mom relaxed the one-Coke-per-day rule.  Since then I peaked in college having 8-10 per day.  In the past month I've had maybe 10 or 20 Coke Zeros.  It's not that I've fallen out of love for the company I advertise on most of my clothes; its that the years of insane caffeine addiction seem to have caught up with me.  

Today's Washington Post has a story of a former marketing exec from Coke feeling regret for pushing up the rates of obesity.  What I found humorous in the story?  The fact that Coke measured success in terms of "share of stomach."  It wasn't just beating Pepsi; they wanted to be a larger part of America's ever growing stomachs.

I gave up the sugary corn sweetened version of Coke years ago.  Coke defends itself against this guy by pointing out the increase in diet sodas - people like me who switched from regular Coke.  And I'll defend Coke on this:  When I drank 8-10 Cokes per day I weighed 140 pounds or less.  Now that I drink only Coke Zero I weigh... well, a lot more.

Health fair

The nutrition students have a health booth today.  I weighed in 206 and a body mass index of 26.  They informed me I was overweight.

True, but better than I was just a few months ago.  Tomorrow I will get my blood drawn to find out if my numbers are any better than the dismal numbers I had last fall.

Watch what I say

One of the fears in teaching is having a student misinterpret a point.

Here's an example:  Equity theory says that people are more motivated if they believe the rules of the game are fair.  If you think there is a tilt against you, it is reasonable to think, "Why work hard?  I'm not going to win anyway."

To make the point I say to my class, "What if I said, 'Fujeirah is a beautiful city.  I will automatically give everyone from Fujeirah an extra ten points on each quiz.'"  The students joke that they'd all say that they were from Fujeirah... but also come to realize that those not from Fujeirah would be unhappy and unmotivated in the class.

Lesson learned, I hope.

In one class I went to explain how I taught this in the US:  "In the US I would say, 'What if I said blue eyed people are better people so I will give them an extra ten points on each quiz?'"  I can't use that example of favortism here because, well, I rarely have any blue-eyed people in my classes.

But my point was not that I like people from Fujeirah better or that I like people with blue eyes better... it's using a story to explain equity theory.

Fast forward to tonight when I had dinner with a former student.  During the dinner he said, "In my class two years ago you said blue eyed people were better..."

And this misunderstanding was from one of my best students.  Ugh.

Piggy bank

I bought this for just under $2.

Buying a piggy bank in the US is no big deal, but this is the first I've seen here.  I found it at Daiso - a store where everything is made in Japan.  Why is it humorous?  Muslims that I have come to know hate pork more than alcohol or the invasion of Iraq. Eating pork is like what we'd think of for eating dog.  
 
If only they knew how great bacon tastes.

Worth seeing a doctor?

Today is the 15th anniversary of Spellman's death.  As he was my economics prof/advisor/life guru it would be entirely appropriate to discuss the latest economic news, like a jobs report showing that only 69,000 jobs were created in the US last month.  But, seriously, that's just too depressing.

So let's talk about a possible "pre-cancerous" growth on my back.

I have a spot between my shoulder blades that is about the size of a nickel and looks like scab.  I noticed it on Tuesday and each day it grew more tender and a red patch grew around it.  I wisely called to see my doctor on Thursday but she's not available until next Wednesday.  I considered just going to the hospital today but Fridays are Sundays in the US.  It's not a matter of the cost of an emergency room - the price is the same as an advanced appointment - the problem is the thought of spending hours and hours waiting and then possibly getting a doctor who doesn't speak English.

Hmm, that seems like a really weak excuse as I wrote the paragraph above.

Late today a friend saw it (something I can't easily do given its location) and she said, "Looks like a scab to me."

So I will wait until next Wednesday.  That's the same day I'll have blood taken and see whether or not the past two months of working out and taking pills have been worth it.

I've also spent a lot of time looking at really gorgeous TV's.  If the numbers come in bad or I find out I do, indeed have skin cancer?  Well, just guess who is getting a 60 70 inch TV?

*****
I don't give myself credit for much, but my tribute to Spellman and his eulogy are on the list.

Assessment of life

In February I planned and bought tickets for a trip to Egypt with my two closest friends in the Emirates.  A month later they froze me out and did the Egypt trip without me. I decided to make a last minute trip back home.  It was good to remind me that I have friends and close family in the US.

Back in the Emirates I have worked hard over the past two months to make my life better.  I realized I couldn't put so much weight in only two friends - it left me too vulnerable.  I started working out.  I've been working out 6 days a week since early March.  I've been religiously taking my meds.  Soon I'll have blood work done to see if the 20 pounds I've lost and being a good pill taker have any effect.

Work has not been going well.  I pretty much fell short on every goal I had for my new job.  My boss is more OK with it than I am.  I'm going to give it one more year mainly because I have to prove I can do better.

Overall, I am in much better shape physically and mentally compared to March.  My next step is to get back to blogging. Given what was going on in my life blogging was hard - I felt screwed over by close friends and nothing at work was going right.  Good times.

I think things are better now but the test will be if I can post every day in June.   Wish me luck and please try to remember to stop back here.  I know you get out of the habit of checking the blog when I don't post...

Weekend remainders

Father of the year he is not:  A man here has made it his mission in life to have 100 children. It is acceptable here to have up to four wives at a time so he keeps as long as they are fertile.

Here's an interactive map of gay rights in the US.  Jon Stewart points out that the best measure of how far we've come is that Republicans criticized Obama for being opportunistic.  I admit I was pleasantly surprised that not one of my far right friends on FB posted anything negative.

On a somewhat related topic, it appears John Travolta really likes happy endings from his massage therapists.  If you have a few minutes it is worth reading the lawsuit.

My alma mater Coe is now over $41,920 for residential students.  I am happy I went to Coe but I don't think I could make the same choice today.  Here's an interactive graph on colleges and their graduates' level of debt.  Student loan debt has now passed credit card debt and auto loans.

Pastafarians unite:  A man has won the right to wear a pasta strainer in his ID photo.

A Kmart in Kentucky was closing.  After the store had marked down the remaining merchandise to one-tenth of its value a man bought it all and gave it to a shelter.  He initially thought he'd try to resell it all but the 76 year-old had a change of heart.  Good for him.

And finally, a college friend is a trial lawyer.  He's developed a product to help companies to keep from being sued.

A sad reality

After changing back to atenolol (for high blood pressure) two days ago I started feeling very dizzy.  More than once today I felt so woozy I thought I might black out.  OK, so I'll stop taking the drug.

I took my last pill early this morning.  As I felt awful all day I hoped things would get better as time passed.  Unfortunately, I'm just as dizzy as I was earlier.  I won't go to the hospital because this is a relatively common side effect for the drug (although the websites say, "If you experience this symptom see your doctor.")  And death is not listed as one of the side effects so I'm gonna bet I'll be OK.

But...

Thursday is the start of the weekend here.  I've made no plans with anyone this weekend.  It would be Sunday before anyone might wonder what happened to me...

Tune in tomorrow because, 1.  I promise to post saying I'm alive and, 2. I have a list of stories I have missed blogging about over the past couple of weeks.

Summer School

When I was home in March I had tile laid in my basement and had a quote done for the upstairs.  The cost? $4900.  

This summer I want to go to Germany to visit the area my Great-Great-Grandfather came from.  I could afford the trip OR I could afford the new floor, not both.  So the opportunity came up to teach summer school.  The pay?  $4900

Therefore...

Now my plans are to leave here on August 7 for Germany and continue on to the US on August 16.

(No homeless person was intentionally mocked in the creation of this blog post.)

Tragedy in Pokhara

Pokhara is the most popular tourist resort in Nepal.  It is beautiful, serene and perhaps the only place I've been that makes *me* feel at peace.  Sadly, water backed up after a landslide and when it finally broke through the rush of water swept away 60+ people and many homes.

I found out about this from my friend Sanjaya - a hotel manager I met two years ago and we've kept in touch.  He was with me on my last trip when I took this picture of the river that tragically killed many two days ago:

Here's the latest news story.  It mentions that the victims of the families will receive 125,000 rupees and those who lost their homes will get 25,000 rupees.  That's $1,500 per death and $300 for a lost house.

Nepal is a spectacular country - beautiful in an almost fairy tale way.  It is also poor, poor beyond the imagination for this Iowa boy.  The people could easily be resentful of foreigners yet they are unbelievably nice.  If ever there was a country and people deserving a break it is the people of Nepal.

I'm famous!

This is from the front page of the "Youth" section of a national newspaper.  You can read the story here if you understand Arabic.  If you don't just trust me that it says "Steve is a god... he's so amazing it is beyond belief."

Maybe it doesn't quite say that but since I can't read Arabic I'm going to believe it does.

Quotes of the day

Comments that would be considered inappropriate are somewhat common here.  Partly, I think language barrier is part of it - just not using the right words.  Culture plays another role and good ole' fashioned rudeness must also play a part.

As I was going up an elevator today a woman I don't know said, "Sir, you used to be a little bit fat.  No you are not.  What happened?"

I had no response.  I am down 20 pounds so thanks for noticing but who are you?

My  barber speaks little English but since I give a 100% tip I'm pretty sure I'm his favorite client.  I never have to wait when I come in three times a week for a shave.  Clearly this has made him wonder how much I make...

Barber: Money.  How much do you get?
Me: What?
Barber:  Money.  Month (pointing to calendar). How much you take?

I should have told him it was none of his business but instead I basically cut my salary in half and told him that.  The sad reality is that he sits in his shop seven days a week from 10AM-11PM and makes less than one-tenth what I make.  Yes, he gets to sleep during the day when business is slow but imagine spending 13 hours every day at your job.  I have no problem giving a 100% tip and now that he has asked me how much I make he'll be expecting at least that much.

On the way to the airport

Gus isn't *my* dog anymore.

Dad never cared much for Duff, the pug I had while growing up.  I loved Duff because he was my only friend for several years of my life.  That said, Gus has one awesome personality.  This picture - taken with my iPhone while I was driving - captures Dad and Gus quite well.  

(Before anyone lectures me on the dangers of picture taking while driving it should be noted this was a lonely stretch of road...)

Corner room

On the trip to Vancouver a month ago I had a hotel room that was cool but it felt like I was in a fishbowl.

I'm thinking a 60" TV may be too small

I clearly have no reason to save for retirement.

Worth a minute of your day

Amazing.

The iPad

Just before I left the US a friend said he wanted me to bring back three iPads.  He had specific directions about color, 4g connectivity and memory size. I wasn't able to complete his order but I did bring back 2 iPads.  My friend was happy with his order and he said he'll make about $300 from reselling them.

I guess I should ask for a cut but that's not the way I roll; I'm happy to help a friend and if he can make a profit on the iPads then good for him. 

Flight to Abu Dhabi

For this trip I was going to eat 66,000 airline miles and fly business class. I found I could get seat 51C so I stuck with economy. What's so special about 51C? It's at the back of the plane where three rows of aisle seats become 2. It gives me the aisle (that I must have for claustrophobic reasons) and almost the room of an empty seat next to me. I can stand next to my seat for hours and not bother anyone. On my last trip I was really sick and had this seat. Sitting was not an option. I stood there and apparently looked like death warmed over because they didn't ask me to buckle up when we hit turbulence.

Anyhow, happiness is getting a good seat on an airplane.

Here's the flight if you want to track it:
http://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/ETD150/history/20120407/0130Z/KORD/OMAA

*****
This was definitely a working vacation. I saw only a few people. On the bright side I had my basement carpet pulled up and new tile is being laid... My garage is the cleanest it has been since I moved in 9 years ago. It was also good to spend time at the farm with dad and Gus. The unexpected trip went quite well.

Kaplan in a nutshell

It's hard to explain just what it was like to work at Kaplan, but this nugget from a friend sums it up well:

"Last week I was yelled at for not attending a meeting I was not invited to."

Coming home!

It is Monday morning... I am tired of feeling sorry for myself so I am being proactive and coming home.

You can track the flight here:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ETD151/history/20120326/0545Z/OMAA/KORD

It is the direct from Abu Dhabi to Chicago flight that I like.  It's insanely long - 14 hours - but the good news is that is no layover in Europe to wake you up.  I plan to take ambien and sleep most of the trip away.

I am on an American Airlines flight into CR that will arrive at 10:40.  I think my roommates are picking me.  Hitchhiking at that time of night would not be fun.

Feeling sorry for myself

I have a former student/friend that I worked hard to get into the trip to Canada.  On the trip a woman jilts him and goes off the scale crazy - so crazy we had to keep him away from the conference and tried to send him home early.

This was the same guy who was supposed to be the tour guide for Ann and me in Egypt.  Long story short Ann and Mohamed went to Egypt.  I did not and I had to eat my ticket (zero refund for the package deal of airplane ticket plus hotel).

I decided to go to Paris to visit a friend.  Under a package deal I booked the flight plus six nights hotel for just under $2000 - a really good deal.  They ran my credit card and I headed off to the local bookstore to buy travel books for Paris.

A few hours later I received a call that said they couldn't confirm the hotel - or any hotel - so they had to cancel.

I wanted to go to Paris because it would be something new.  Since I've been screwed out of Egypt Paris would have been a nice consolation.

I may end up going to Nepal or I might just stay here.

*****
I have never had a friend do to me what Mohamed did to me.  He ruined the trip to Canada for several people, including me.  Egypt was something I was looking forward to for a long time.  I know he had periods of emotional instability in the past and I've had to walk him back from jumping off the crazy cliff a couple of times. While there is a likely underlying mental illness I've reached the point where I just don't care.

Fake Nike ad

I certainly mean no offense by this... but it really does capture the Type B attitude of the culture.

No joy in my world

What's worse than realizing you can't travel to Egypt because the friend you wanted as a tour guide went crazy?  It's having the friend go crazy and then be told that your package trip is non-refundable.

It's been a tough week.  I normally teach with a lot of energy but this week I had none.  It's easy to pass this off as jet lag but really the problem is a sense of betrayal.

Tonight I had friends over for fudge.  I bought a ridiculous amount of fudge when I was in Canada and tonight I shared it.  Of the group here about a half-dozen have been to Egypt before and they all said, "Go.  You can hire guides from the hotels.  Just go."

So I guess I will.

The future is hard to know in advance

Pretty much nothing on the trip to Canada went according to plan.  In the end I lost a close friend because he decided that getting revenge on another person was more valuable than our friendship.  That has made me incredibly sad.  This is the same person I was going to Egypt with next week.  Now my Egypt plans are cancelled and I will most likely be returning to Nepal.

I am completely gobsmacked at the series of events of the past week.  My former close friend is on a warpath that - if he continues - could destroy several people's lives, including me.  Anyone can say something nasty in the heat of the moment but what's playing out here over days is cold and calculating.  I could have never predicted things could get this bad and I have no idea how much worse they will get.

Even if the matter dies here I mourn the loss of a good friend.  Given his actions - and the lack of remorse for how much pain he's caused - I have to step away.

Sad. Sad. Sad.

Return to the Emirates

Vancouver to Frankfurt:

http://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/DLH493/history/20120316/2320Z/CYVR/EDDF

Frankfurt to Dubai:


Hmm... Flight aware stopped working. It is flight 630 on Lufthansa from Frankfurt to Dubai.

Quote of the day

As we passed by some guys fixing an escalator one my students said, "That's the first time I've ever seen a white man working."

Worst trip ever?

1980.

My family went on vacation to Texas and for two weeks before the trip I cried and cried because I had a premonition my dog (and only friend) would die.  Sure enough, he was struck by lightning.

*****
This trip has been stressful.  I can't go into it but my repeated thought has been, "I wish I had never heard of this and had never volunteered."  Part of my coming on this trip was with the plan that I would take over and do this next year wherever the next conference meets.  I'd have to say that has about a 5% chance.

Canada trip

Canada trip is two trips - Dubai to Frankfurt, Germany:

http://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/DLH631

And then Frankfurt to Vancouver:

http://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/DLH492

Offering food for others

Tonight I caught up with my friend Abdul Karim.  He ordered the drink whose name I dare not say on the blog (see the picture).

I told him he should be proud.  Besides my sister there are not many people I would be willing to buy a Pepsi.


We ate at a restaurant I don't usually go to and we accidentally ordered way too much food.  When we were done (and still had half of the food left) he offered the excess to the guys at the next table and they happily accepted.  I wonder why this is not more common around the world.

Canada/Egypt

On Thursday I will be travelling with a colleague/friend and 19 students to Vancouver, Canada. I am more excited about this than I probably should be considering I've been to Canada before (but never the west).

This trip is for the Model United Nations.  I've spent many hours working with students to prepare for the trip and I honestly can't believe it is finally becoming a reality.

I will return to the UAE a week later -  spend five nights in my bed - and then head to Egypt.  I am off the scales excited about this trip.  Egypt!  The pyramids, Nile... Two weeks in Egypt?  It's almost hard to believe that it could be true.

And, oh, today is the four year anniversary of Susan firing me... easily the best day of my life.

Andrew Breitbart

I am troubled that Andrew Breitbart is dead.  He was a total piece of shit but the guy is my age so I don't like hearing he died.

*****
Speaking of death.... I did not buy the 60" TV.  My numbers came in better but not spectacularly better.  Will I live to a ripe old age? Not likely.  Will I live past tomorrow?  Yeah, I think so, but then again so did Andrew Breitbart.

Pan flute

Tonight I had a good massage - a rare treat in the land where they often charge a lot and give really bad massages.

During the massage the music in the background was all pan flute, which I find nauseating.

I don't know if it is worse for me because I know the music behind the pan flute or if it would be worse if I had never heard the music before.  A song early on was "Feelings" followed shortly after by "Groovy kind of love". Again, no words, only pan flute.

By the time they were on the third pan flute Bryan Adams song I realized I have to bring my own music for any future massages.