Two weeks ago I didn't understand the meltdown in the Romney campaign. Yes, Obama got a convention bounce but not a huge one. It didn't seem like a time to panic. But I think the Romney campaign was seeing internal polls showing a shift before the public polls did. Now a slew of swing state polls have been released and Obama is consistently ahead 4-8 points in all of them. The most crushing for Romney? A poll showing Obama head by 4 in North Carolina. Romney's had a lead for most of the year in NC so that has to hurt.
But THE STATE TO WATCH is Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio Romney can win the swing states of Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina AND Florida and still lose.
Since 1900 no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. (I stopped looking when I got back to 1900, it could have been longer than that.)
Polls show 3 - 8 point lead for Obama in the state but that's not the reason to be depressed if you are in Romney's camp. The real reason to panic? Romney's unfavorably rating in Ohio stands at 50.5%. Only 43.1% view him favorably. When half of the people don't like you there is no chance you will win. (Obama's current favorability in Ohio is 55.4)
I had hope to post the graph but I couldn't so if you are interested you can see it all here.
Mitt and Paul Ryan will be spending the next three days camped out in Ohio with hopes to turn it around. It may seem dumb to put so much time and energy in a state that seems hopeless but when the alternative is trying to sway many small states (like Iowa) camping out in Ohio seems like the least bad option.
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The biggest tell that the wheels have fallen off the campaign bus: Former Minnesota Governor Pawlenty resigning as national co-chair to take a multi-million dollar lobbying job. If Romney had been elected there were several cabinet posts for him to choose from. Pawlenty saw the writing on the wall and decided to take the money and run. No rat has ever jumped faster from a sinking ship.
* New blog rule: No more than two metaphors per paragraph. *
I ask this because I know you enjoy looking this stuff up: how is Christie Vilsack doing against the Anti-Christ?
ReplyDelete- Denise
There has been little info on the race and I have not seen a poll. The district is by far the most Republican area of the state so he is probably safe.
ReplyDeleteI'm concerned about all of the GOP voter suppression going on. It may not factor into the polls if registered dem. seniors, minorities and college students aren't allowed to vote on election day. What's your take on that?
ReplyDeleteDon't limit your metaphors. Why? I just loved the rats jumping from a sinking ship line. LOL.
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