So back in October I posted a map from the National Weather Service predicting a warmer than normal winter. You can read the original post here and the map is below.
And the prediction was accurate... for November. Remember all those wonderful 50 and 60 degree days in November?
Starting on December 2 the bottom fell out. December was colder than normal and January was way colder than normal.
So what gives? Today state climatologist Harry Hillaker explained the forecast on Iowa Public Radio's The Exchange. The reason the NWS got it wrong is el nino. For all ten previous el ninos the upper midwest had a mild/warmer winter. Since there's a strong el nino in play right now it was easy to forecast a mild/warm winter this year.
The host also asked about ice. It seemed to the host that there's more ice now than in the past. Hillaker responded that the NWS measures precipitation and snow, not ice. "Don't you think they should?" asked the host.
To the longtime Iowans I ask, "Do you think there are more freezing rain ice storms than there were twenty-thirty years ago?"
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