I have lived in this apartment for four years. Tonight I took my second walk in the neighborhood. A block from my house I was approached by a guy with low English skills. I quickly realized he was offering sex. At first I thought he was offering himself but then he quickly said, "I bring Fillipina."
So I was dealing with a pimp.
I have often said that I will stay here as long as it remains interesting and I see new things. Being solicited 200 yards from my house definitely rates as interesting.
And I wish I could express how unbelievable this is: I live on the outskirts of town... I can see the open desert from my tiny balcony. The number of cars that pass in front of my place in a day are counted by the dozens, not the hundreds or thousands.
In other words, it's not quite as rural as where I grew up but it's the next best thing. I'm pretty sure Newhall, Iowa, doesn't have any pimps.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
I get to be a student!
Long story short: Next Sunday - Tuesday I will be a student again.
The training session is put on by the Harvard Business School with the topic of "negotiations." I loved my negotiations class in graduate school and even though I suck at bargaining I really, really like negotiations. (After my work with Spellman on union contracts I think I could have taken a job working in this field. I am much better negotiating on behalf of someone than I am negotiating for me.)
There is extra value for me to attend this training: It will be at the company where my university will be doing training in the future and I might, just might, be the point person on it. To see what they expect in terms of training would be helpful.
As I told my class that next week's classes were canceled I said, "I know this is hard for you to hear because you will miss this class...." and they laughed. I appreciated that. If they didn't know me they would have said, "Oh, sir, we will miss you!"
Today I received the material I have to read before next week and I told my class that I was excited to get homework. Forty students collectively rolled their eyes.
And I laughed.
The training session is put on by the Harvard Business School with the topic of "negotiations." I loved my negotiations class in graduate school and even though I suck at bargaining I really, really like negotiations. (After my work with Spellman on union contracts I think I could have taken a job working in this field. I am much better negotiating on behalf of someone than I am negotiating for me.)
There is extra value for me to attend this training: It will be at the company where my university will be doing training in the future and I might, just might, be the point person on it. To see what they expect in terms of training would be helpful.
As I told my class that next week's classes were canceled I said, "I know this is hard for you to hear because you will miss this class...." and they laughed. I appreciated that. If they didn't know me they would have said, "Oh, sir, we will miss you!"
Today I received the material I have to read before next week and I told my class that I was excited to get homework. Forty students collectively rolled their eyes.
And I laughed.
A huge paycut
Today my boss called me in to say, "Due to new university rules we can't pay you for your work at the entrepreneurship center." That's a $13,600 pay cut.
Ouch.
I am not crying because:
- I still make good money.
- There are some other things in the pipeline that could really payoff (see post below).
- There might be a way to still make this payoff - not as well, but if I can still be paid for the "teaching" part of the entrepreneurship center and, hey, get to go to a conference somewhere cool that might justify the work.
- The center is stressful and time consuming. Teaching is not. If I have to fall back to "just teaching" I'm pretty OK with that.
My friend and co-director Dan has pretty much decided to choose option #4.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Sullivan - "Did Obama just throw the entire election away?"
When I read Andrew Sullivan's meltdown on Sunday it seemed a bit over-the-top and premature.
Yes, the Pew Poll showing Romney up by 4 was bad news, but...
It was just one poll. Pew is a reliable pollster but even good pollsters can have 1-in-20 bad polls. I hoped Pew's Romney 49, Obama 45 was exactly that one oddball poll.
Unfortunately, all other polls released in the past two days confirm Pew's results: Romney is tied or ahead in all national polls. Swing state polls are also showing dramatic shifts.
Andrew Sullivan's meltdown was - if anything - prescient and very much worth reading.
Yes, the Pew Poll showing Romney up by 4 was bad news, but...
It was just one poll. Pew is a reliable pollster but even good pollsters can have 1-in-20 bad polls. I hoped Pew's Romney 49, Obama 45 was exactly that one oddball poll.
Unfortunately, all other polls released in the past two days confirm Pew's results: Romney is tied or ahead in all national polls. Swing state polls are also showing dramatic shifts.
Andrew Sullivan's meltdown was - if anything - prescient and very much worth reading.
Monday, October 8, 2012
A month without Ambien
I last took an Ambien on my flight back here on September 4. I fell asleep over Canadian airspace and woke up over Turkey. In other words, I slept for more than half of the 14 hour flight. It doesn't get any better than that!
The transition here was not as good: I woke up at 4AM for the entire week after I came back.
Falling asleep was not a problem, however, so yippee!
For a month I had no problems falling asleep and dared to wonder, "Is my need for Ambien over?" On Friday night I was awake until 4AM. I would have taken an Ambien but since it was the weekend I told myself, "You have no excuse, you can sleep in."
One month has been nice. It's the longest I've gone without an Ambien since it was first prescribed back in 2004. I plan to hold out for as long as I can but it seems I've fallen back to the pattern of sleeplessness I know oh, so well.
The transition here was not as good: I woke up at 4AM for the entire week after I came back.
Falling asleep was not a problem, however, so yippee!
For a month I had no problems falling asleep and dared to wonder, "Is my need for Ambien over?" On Friday night I was awake until 4AM. I would have taken an Ambien but since it was the weekend I told myself, "You have no excuse, you can sleep in."
One month has been nice. It's the longest I've gone without an Ambien since it was first prescribed back in 2004. I plan to hold out for as long as I can but it seems I've fallen back to the pattern of sleeplessness I know oh, so well.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Oh, the places you'll go! (maybe)
Today was interesting. I woke up at 4 to read news and watch the big debate. At 9 I had a meeting to go over a training project proposal - basically people from my university would provide training for a major company in the country.
I have not been involved in this for the past six months. I didn't ask to be involved and I wasn't asked to be involved. On Tuesday I was asked if I would look over the materials and come to a meeting on Thursday.
I read through what the company requested. I read through what we had prepared for them. I couldn't connect the dots. So I went to the meeting today to say, "Thanks for asking, but I don't understand our proposal so I should really bow out." I didn't have time to get to the second part of my statement.
In just a few minutes a colleague slammed her computer shut, stormed out of the room and said, "I quit."
"Wow," I said, "I just said I don't understand!"
Seeing the reaction from the rest of the team it was clear that events played out pretty much as they expected. (There are people in the world who are scared to say they don't understand. I never have that fear. I always acknowledge my ignorance, I'm willing to speak up, and I suspect that's why I was invited.)
In the aftermath, I said, "Look, when it comes to training we have a client who has given us outcomes they want achieved. Our training sessions have to map back to those outcomes. This isn't rocket science."
The senior person there said, "The Dean believes we need a point person working with the client on a daily basis... yada, yada, yada... and Steve, he thinks you are right for the position."
Wow.
There are many ways this can fall apart so I'm not planning a move to Abu Dhabi. (Did I mention the company is 90 miles away? A colleague said, "You wouldn't have to move. They'll have a driver for you every day." Seriously.) Also, there are parts of this that match my talents - client service - and parts of this that don't - the daily grind of task management is not my strength.
Also, HELLO? I am in this gig for teaching. I don't want to give up the classroom.
All of this is very premature. After six months of fighting (which I dutifully kept out of) we now have 2 weeks to create a make-or-break presentation. If we can't deliver then all of this is for nothing.
Given Obama's debate performance this is exactly what I need: A legitimate reason to work and not spend 6 hours/day trolling news sites.
*****
Having re-read this post I think it comes off more "I've come to save the day" than the situation warrants. I'm not going to take the time to re-write. There are logical reasons for me to do the new job that have nothing to do with me vs. anyone else in my college. As an instructor I don't have to publish. And I have training experience. Again, it's not rocket science, but as someone with a thousand insecurities it's nice to know I'm appreciated.
*****
Having re-read this post I think it comes off more "I've come to save the day" than the situation warrants. I'm not going to take the time to re-write. There are logical reasons for me to do the new job that have nothing to do with me vs. anyone else in my college. As an instructor I don't have to publish. And I have training experience. Again, it's not rocket science, but as someone with a thousand insecurities it's nice to know I'm appreciated.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
First impressions vs. lasting impressions
Mitt Romney won the first debate. He didn't come off as snobbish. He was aggressive and he made his points. The president was cool. Too cool for me. Not one mention of the 47%? Not even a veiled reference of "I'm president of all of the people"? Romney said, "Maybe I should fire my accountant" and the President didn't respond with a comment about moving money to the Cayman Islands or Swiss bank accounts? He lobbed a softball to you Mr. President and you didn't strike.
First impression: Romney won.
The lasting impression, however, may be just as important. The president came off as, well, presidential. He came off as the reasonable grownup. Romney did a good job of keeping his borderline hyperactivity in check but he said some things that will not play as well in the long run: When asked if he would accept $10 in spending cuts for $1 in new taxes he said, "No." He also said he wouldn't cut, Medicare, Medicaid, SS, Student Pell grants, etc. AND he would increase military spending.
I want to have faith in the American people that they will see he is promising a free ice cream sundae.
First impression: Romney won.
The lasting impression, however, may be just as important. The president came off as, well, presidential. He came off as the reasonable grownup. Romney did a good job of keeping his borderline hyperactivity in check but he said some things that will not play as well in the long run: When asked if he would accept $10 in spending cuts for $1 in new taxes he said, "No." He also said he wouldn't cut, Medicare, Medicaid, SS, Student Pell grants, etc. AND he would increase military spending.
I want to have faith in the American people that they will see he is promising a free ice cream sundae.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Iowa polling update
Ann Selzer conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register and she certainly knows Iowa better than other pollster.
The Iowa Poll is the gold standard of Iowa polls. This poll alone showed the come from behind wins for Tom Harkin way back in 1984 against incumbent senator Jepsen. It showed Vilsack's come from behind win over Lightfoot in 1998. In 2008 all other polls showed a tight race between Hillary, Edwards and Obama. The DM Register predicted a blow-out 7 point win for Obama. They were right and Iowa's former governor was wrong.
Today they are out with a new poll and it shows:
Obama - 49%
Romney - 45%
So Obama is ahead but not by a lot.
Iowa Democrats should be happy but not complacent. I'm not geeky enough to remember the details but I'm pretty sure Jepsen and Lightfoot had bigger leads a month before the election and still lost.
******
As much I want to think Iowa is the center of the political universe (without Iowa Hillary would be president now instead of Barack), in this election the real center of the universe is Ohio.
A new poll there:
Obama 51%
Romney 42%
This comes after the Romney/Ryan bus trip through Ohio. Realistically, they'd like to cut their losses and run but there just aren't many good places to run.
Oh, how I wish the election were two days away instead of 37.
The Iowa Poll is the gold standard of Iowa polls. This poll alone showed the come from behind wins for Tom Harkin way back in 1984 against incumbent senator Jepsen. It showed Vilsack's come from behind win over Lightfoot in 1998. In 2008 all other polls showed a tight race between Hillary, Edwards and Obama. The DM Register predicted a blow-out 7 point win for Obama. They were right and Iowa's former governor was wrong.
Today they are out with a new poll and it shows:
Obama - 49%
Romney - 45%
So Obama is ahead but not by a lot.
Iowa Democrats should be happy but not complacent. I'm not geeky enough to remember the details but I'm pretty sure Jepsen and Lightfoot had bigger leads a month before the election and still lost.
******
As much I want to think Iowa is the center of the political universe (without Iowa Hillary would be president now instead of Barack), in this election the real center of the universe is Ohio.
A new poll there:
Obama 51%
Romney 42%
This comes after the Romney/Ryan bus trip through Ohio. Realistically, they'd like to cut their losses and run but there just aren't many good places to run.
Oh, how I wish the election were two days away instead of 37.
Friday, September 28, 2012
Iowa polls
Besides reelecting Obama the greatest joy to sane people of Iowa would be the defeat of Steve King. He's the biggest embarrassment to come out of Iowa in my lifetime.
Unfortunately, he represents solidly Republican western Iowa.
A new poll shows Iowa's former first lady just behind him:
King: 48%
Vilsack: 45%
*****
Iowa Presidential polls completed in the past ten days:
Obama 50, Romney 42 - Obama up by 8 (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)
Obama 44, Romney 47 - Romney up by 3 (Rasmussen)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (ARG - no link available)
Obama 46, Romney 47 - Romney up by 1 (TIR-Voter/Consumer Research)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (Public Policy Poling - PPP)
Bias in polls has been all the rage on the right for the past two weeks. "The polls are over sampling Demorats so it is not surprising the Demorats are winning."*
Iowa will be the best state to test their hypothesis. Above we have 3 polls showing an Obama lead outside of the margin of error - 8 points, 7 points, 7 points. There are 2 two polls showing a 3 point and 1 point lead for Romney. The first pollster, Rasmussen, has a high "house-effect" for Republicans. Basically, his polls always skew 3-5 points better for Republicans than all other polls.
The other poll from TIR-Voter/Consumer Research left me scratching my head. I've never heard of them. When I clicked on the link of the organization I found it was sponsored by the Iowa Republican with the story written by Craig Robinson.
YES! The very same Craig Robinson who I quoted in the post below this one saying Ryan would have to get the "stench of Romney" off of him. Robinson has written a post saying he was quoted accurately.
I believe NBC-ARG-PPP are right about Iowa. I think Obama has the state pretty safely.
Why? My party is winning the ground game. Of early ballots requested 119,000 were by Democrats, 25,000 were by Republicans.
Democrats have nearly a 5-1 advantage on early voting.
And guess what? Of the 25,000 Republican requests one is mine. I never changed my affiliation after the Iowa caucuses in January so I am still a registered Republican.
* Yes, I know how to spell Democrat. I've spent enough time reading Republican blogs that I can channel them.
Unfortunately, he represents solidly Republican western Iowa.
A new poll shows Iowa's former first lady just behind him:
King: 48%
Vilsack: 45%
*****
Iowa Presidential polls completed in the past ten days:
Obama 50, Romney 42 - Obama up by 8 (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)
Obama 44, Romney 47 - Romney up by 3 (Rasmussen)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (ARG - no link available)
Obama 46, Romney 47 - Romney up by 1 (TIR-Voter/Consumer Research)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (Public Policy Poling - PPP)
Bias in polls has been all the rage on the right for the past two weeks. "The polls are over sampling Demorats so it is not surprising the Demorats are winning."*
Iowa will be the best state to test their hypothesis. Above we have 3 polls showing an Obama lead outside of the margin of error - 8 points, 7 points, 7 points. There are 2 two polls showing a 3 point and 1 point lead for Romney. The first pollster, Rasmussen, has a high "house-effect" for Republicans. Basically, his polls always skew 3-5 points better for Republicans than all other polls.
The other poll from TIR-Voter/Consumer Research left me scratching my head. I've never heard of them. When I clicked on the link of the organization I found it was sponsored by the Iowa Republican with the story written by Craig Robinson.
YES! The very same Craig Robinson who I quoted in the post below this one saying Ryan would have to get the "stench of Romney" off of him. Robinson has written a post saying he was quoted accurately.
I believe NBC-ARG-PPP are right about Iowa. I think Obama has the state pretty safely.
Why? My party is winning the ground game. Of early ballots requested 119,000 were by Democrats, 25,000 were by Republicans.
Democrats have nearly a 5-1 advantage on early voting.
And guess what? Of the 25,000 Republican requests one is mine. I never changed my affiliation after the Iowa caucuses in January so I am still a registered Republican.
* Yes, I know how to spell Democrat. I've spent enough time reading Republican blogs that I can channel them.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Quote of the day
With friends like these Mitt, well...
Craig Robinson - the former political director for Republicans in the state of Iowa (home of the first contest for Republicans in 2016) said this:
Craig Robinson - the former political director for Republicans in the state of Iowa (home of the first contest for Republicans in 2016) said this:
“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him.”Unfortunately for him he made the comment to a New York Times reporter.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Hannity forums
To check on the meltdown on the Republican side I like to check in on Sean Hannity's forums.
Current topics include:
"Can a Christian be a Democrat?"
"Kids aren't like Maochelle's new lunch laws"
Misspelling the First Lady's name is, of course, intentional. Anytime you can make a communist reference...
What's been fascinating over the past two weeks is how the collective group has moved so quickly through all of the phases of grief:
Denial: The polls are wrong. It's just a convention bounce, that's all.
Anger: Democrats lied so much during the convention it is no wonder they are ahead.
Bargaining: The debates! If only Romney kicks ass in the debates he'll be back in this!
Depression: Obama's going to win and he is going to destroy the only parts of America he hasn't already destroyed.
So when will we see acceptance? When the Super Pac's switch their spending on Romney to Senate and House candidates.
Current topics include:
"Can a Christian be a Democrat?"
"Kids aren't like Maochelle's new lunch laws"
Misspelling the First Lady's name is, of course, intentional. Anytime you can make a communist reference...
What's been fascinating over the past two weeks is how the collective group has moved so quickly through all of the phases of grief:
Denial: The polls are wrong. It's just a convention bounce, that's all.
Anger: Democrats lied so much during the convention it is no wonder they are ahead.
Bargaining: The debates! If only Romney kicks ass in the debates he'll be back in this!
Depression: Obama's going to win and he is going to destroy the only parts of America he hasn't already destroyed.
So when will we see acceptance? When the Super Pac's switch their spending on Romney to Senate and House candidates.
State of the race - Six weeks out
Two weeks ago I didn't understand the meltdown in the Romney campaign. Yes, Obama got a convention bounce but not a huge one. It didn't seem like a time to panic. But I think the Romney campaign was seeing internal polls showing a shift before the public polls did. Now a slew of swing state polls have been released and Obama is consistently ahead 4-8 points in all of them. The most crushing for Romney? A poll showing Obama head by 4 in North Carolina. Romney's had a lead for most of the year in NC so that has to hurt.
But THE STATE TO WATCH is Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio Romney can win the swing states of Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina AND Florida and still lose.
Since 1900 no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. (I stopped looking when I got back to 1900, it could have been longer than that.)
Polls show 3 - 8 point lead for Obama in the state but that's not the reason to be depressed if you are in Romney's camp. The real reason to panic? Romney's unfavorably rating in Ohio stands at 50.5%. Only 43.1% view him favorably. When half of the people don't like you there is no chance you will win. (Obama's current favorability in Ohio is 55.4)
I had hope to post the graph but I couldn't so if you are interested you can see it all here.
Mitt and Paul Ryan will be spending the next three days camped out in Ohio with hopes to turn it around. It may seem dumb to put so much time and energy in a state that seems hopeless but when the alternative is trying to sway many small states (like Iowa) camping out in Ohio seems like the least bad option.
*****
The biggest tell that the wheels have fallen off the campaign bus: Former Minnesota Governor Pawlenty resigning as national co-chair to take a multi-million dollar lobbying job. If Romney had been elected there were several cabinet posts for him to choose from. Pawlenty saw the writing on the wall and decided to take the money and run. No rat has ever jumped faster from a sinking ship.
* New blog rule: No more than two metaphors per paragraph. *
But THE STATE TO WATCH is Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio Romney can win the swing states of Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina AND Florida and still lose.
Since 1900 no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. (I stopped looking when I got back to 1900, it could have been longer than that.)
Polls show 3 - 8 point lead for Obama in the state but that's not the reason to be depressed if you are in Romney's camp. The real reason to panic? Romney's unfavorably rating in Ohio stands at 50.5%. Only 43.1% view him favorably. When half of the people don't like you there is no chance you will win. (Obama's current favorability in Ohio is 55.4)
I had hope to post the graph but I couldn't so if you are interested you can see it all here.
Mitt and Paul Ryan will be spending the next three days camped out in Ohio with hopes to turn it around. It may seem dumb to put so much time and energy in a state that seems hopeless but when the alternative is trying to sway many small states (like Iowa) camping out in Ohio seems like the least bad option.
*****
The biggest tell that the wheels have fallen off the campaign bus: Former Minnesota Governor Pawlenty resigning as national co-chair to take a multi-million dollar lobbying job. If Romney had been elected there were several cabinet posts for him to choose from. Pawlenty saw the writing on the wall and decided to take the money and run. No rat has ever jumped faster from a sinking ship.
* New blog rule: No more than two metaphors per paragraph. *
A Facebook birthday by the numbers
This year 172 posted birthday wishes on my FB wall. Last year it was 175. In 2010 it was 116 and in 2009 it was 54 posts
Trust me I don't keep these stats I just had to look them up and the reason was not vanity.
The reason? I pretty much only check FB on mobile - phone or iPad. On mobile you don't see birthdays so I know I have missed most of my friends' birthdays over the past year. I would have expected the number of "Happy birthdays!" to be way lower this year and I am surprised they were not.
*****
My friend Travis made me think of this when he posted on the cupcake picture below that he felt bad he had forgotten my birthday. I suspect he missed it because he, too, only sees FB on mobile.
(Never mind that I know his birthday - May 13 - and that it is the same day as Sandy's anniversary... It's no big deal; I'm just a better friend.)
Trust me I don't keep these stats I just had to look them up and the reason was not vanity.
The reason? I pretty much only check FB on mobile - phone or iPad. On mobile you don't see birthdays so I know I have missed most of my friends' birthdays over the past year. I would have expected the number of "Happy birthdays!" to be way lower this year and I am surprised they were not.
*****
My friend Travis made me think of this when he posted on the cupcake picture below that he felt bad he had forgotten my birthday. I suspect he missed it because he, too, only sees FB on mobile.
(Never mind that I know his birthday - May 13 - and that it is the same day as Sandy's anniversary... It's no big deal; I'm just a better friend.)
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Conversations
Last night I met up with a former student from Egypt. In the course of conversation I asked for his thoughts on the uprisings in Egypt and Libya. I said, "First, it was not a film, it is just a trailer. Second, the trailer was awful. If there was no uprising NOBODY would have ever seen it."
He replied that governments have people in every country they can call on to make problems. I said, "Really?" He seemed shocked at my naivete. He agreed that the outrage was ridiculous and based on something stupid but...
The protesters were paid squadrons from Obama.
Wow, if only the Romney campaign could get a hold of that!
He explained that Obama is doing this to generate support before the election. I said, "I appreciate your giving me your honest view of the situation. I absolutely, 100%, disagree. Creating fear of Muslims is just not something that would help Obama. Those that are scared of Muslims vote Republican."
*****
Tonight I had a conversation with a former student who is now living in Canada. He is not excited about the prospect of cold temperatures and the requisite clothing:
winter in canada women will be like wearing Hijab - showing nothin
I laughed out loud. I suspect he will find that there are dance bars and other places where women don't wear anything close to a hijab (head scarf).
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Best reader reaction
I've been all over this 47% story and here's the best reader reaction I've read:
"A candidate might stick his foot in his mouth. A candidate might shoot himself in the foot. But only Mitt Romney can stick his foot in the mouth and then shoot it."
"A candidate might stick his foot in his mouth. A candidate might shoot himself in the foot. But only Mitt Romney can stick his foot in the mouth and then shoot it."
Why the water cooler matters
I was happy to see the Mitt Romney video saying that the 47% of the population who don't pay federal income taxes are "victims" and "dependent on the government."
Happy because I think this is the nail in the coffin of his candidacy and because I've heard the same thing over and over listening to right wing talk radio and reading right wing blogs. It's just nice to have it out in the open.
First, the 47% Romney identifies as moochers includes the elderly, students, and the working poor. Here's a good breakdown.
Second, I find it highly ironic because Romney is part of the 47%! His income for the past couple of years has come from interest made from investments. He has not "income" therefore, he has not paid income taxes.
Third, read the reactions:
David Brooks: "Personally, I think he’s a kind, decent man who says stupid things because he is pretending to be something he is not — some sort of cartoonish government-hater. But it scarcely matters. He’s running a depressingly inept presidential campaign.
Brooks also asks: "Who are these freeloaders? Is it the Iraq war veteran who goes to the V.A.? Is it the student getting a loan to go to college? Is it the retiree on Social Security or Medicare?"
Rich Lowry: "... he should make it clear that he doesn’t think they are half the country, and also make it clear that he knows many hard-working people don’t pay federal income taxes, although they do pay other taxes and if they could earn more income, would pay federal income taxes, too. The overall impression of Romney at this event is of someone who overheard some conservative cocktail chatter and maybe read a conservative blog or two, and is thoughtlessly repeating back what he heard and read."
David Frum: "Mitt Romney has just committed the worst presidential-candidate gaffe since Gerald Ford announced in 1976 that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe."
So who are Brooks, Lowry, and Frum? Conservative Republicans.
******
I titled this post, "Why the water cooler matters." A campaign is lost when supporters think, "Meh, that's not worth defending." It's a feeling I remember well back in 2004. Kerry's remark that he voted for the defense appropriation bill before he voted against it actually made sense if you heard the entire quote... but I didn't defend it when my colleagues made fun of it around the office. It just wasn't worth it.
Romney's supporters are going to have a hard time defending a quote that calls low paid workers, students, uniformed military and senior citizens moochers.
Again, as a long time political geek I have never, never seen a campaign go down this quickly.
Happy because I think this is the nail in the coffin of his candidacy and because I've heard the same thing over and over listening to right wing talk radio and reading right wing blogs. It's just nice to have it out in the open.
First, the 47% Romney identifies as moochers includes the elderly, students, and the working poor. Here's a good breakdown.
Second, I find it highly ironic because Romney is part of the 47%! His income for the past couple of years has come from interest made from investments. He has not "income" therefore, he has not paid income taxes.
Third, read the reactions:
David Brooks: "Personally, I think he’s a kind, decent man who says stupid things because he is pretending to be something he is not — some sort of cartoonish government-hater. But it scarcely matters. He’s running a depressingly inept presidential campaign.
Brooks also asks: "Who are these freeloaders? Is it the Iraq war veteran who goes to the V.A.? Is it the student getting a loan to go to college? Is it the retiree on Social Security or Medicare?"
Rich Lowry: "... he should make it clear that he doesn’t think they are half the country, and also make it clear that he knows many hard-working people don’t pay federal income taxes, although they do pay other taxes and if they could earn more income, would pay federal income taxes, too. The overall impression of Romney at this event is of someone who overheard some conservative cocktail chatter and maybe read a conservative blog or two, and is thoughtlessly repeating back what he heard and read."
David Frum: "Mitt Romney has just committed the worst presidential-candidate gaffe since Gerald Ford announced in 1976 that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe."
So who are Brooks, Lowry, and Frum? Conservative Republicans.
******
I titled this post, "Why the water cooler matters." A campaign is lost when supporters think, "Meh, that's not worth defending." It's a feeling I remember well back in 2004. Kerry's remark that he voted for the defense appropriation bill before he voted against it actually made sense if you heard the entire quote... but I didn't defend it when my colleagues made fun of it around the office. It just wasn't worth it.
Romney's supporters are going to have a hard time defending a quote that calls low paid workers, students, uniformed military and senior citizens moochers.
Again, as a long time political geek I have never, never seen a campaign go down this quickly.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Blogs/links I added and why
First, I deleted the Iowa politics link because (sadly) they stopped updating information months ago. It is a horrible thing when a blog suddenly goes silent.
Err, wait a minute....
Of the links I added: Electoral Vote is the most interesting. I've been following this guy since 2004. He scours the web for every possible poll for every state. Nobody has more up-to-date information than him. This election cycle he has a fascinating link called "This day in 2008." I find it incredibly hard to believe that Obama is in better shape in the middle of September 2012 than he was in the middle of September 2008. But then I remember that the Lehman collapse came on September 15 and most people at this point didn't realize Sarah Palin was Sarah Palin.
First Read is for political junkies. It is primarily written by Chuck Todd who is pretty much the Dean of Washington political pundits.
I also added the Gallup daily tracking poll. Gallup's management leans Republican but their data seems to be clean. It's kind of like Nate Silver who writes the 538 blog (also linked to the right). Nate is certainly an Obama supporter but his polling analysis is solid enough that nobody questions it. He calls it as it is and had no problem saying the Republicans would win a landslide in 2010.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
State of the race
As a political junkie I can't think of many times where I've seen a presidential race turn so quickly on so little real news. Think about it: Clinton gave a good speech defending Obama. Obama gave a mediocre (by Obama standards) speech accepting the nomination.
Within days the Romney campaign went off the rails saying things like, "We'll repeal Obamacare but keep the parts that are popular." And, "People making between $200,000 and $250,000 are middle class." And then he questioned whether Obama would want to take "In God we trust" off of our coins. And then there is the jump-the-gun response to the attacks on the embassies.
I have never seen a campaign go from confident to freaked out this quickly. Yes, McCain rolled the dice with picking Palin but he was solidly behind at that time. He had to roll the dice. Romney was a point below dead even a week ago.
For every campaign there is a book or two that does in-depth reporting on each campaign. In 2008 it was a book called "Game Change" and I wrote several posts about it. Win or lose for my side, I look forward to reading the book because something caused Romney to become unhinged in the past week and I can't wait to read the back story.
The election day is still over six weeks away so there's no champagne bottles being popped here... but I am pinching myself with disbelief at my side's change of fortune.
Within days the Romney campaign went off the rails saying things like, "We'll repeal Obamacare but keep the parts that are popular." And, "People making between $200,000 and $250,000 are middle class." And then he questioned whether Obama would want to take "In God we trust" off of our coins. And then there is the jump-the-gun response to the attacks on the embassies.
I have never seen a campaign go from confident to freaked out this quickly. Yes, McCain rolled the dice with picking Palin but he was solidly behind at that time. He had to roll the dice. Romney was a point below dead even a week ago.
For every campaign there is a book or two that does in-depth reporting on each campaign. In 2008 it was a book called "Game Change" and I wrote several posts about it. Win or lose for my side, I look forward to reading the book because something caused Romney to become unhinged in the past week and I can't wait to read the back story.
The election day is still over six weeks away so there's no champagne bottles being popped here... but I am pinching myself with disbelief at my side's change of fortune.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Returning to the Emirates
I came. I saw. I ate everything I saw.
I am returning to the Emirates 15-20 pounds heavier than when I left. On this gluttony tour of duty I left no sausage (wurst) in Germany behind or BLT or fried potatoes in the US to waste. I took it all for the team.
For my flight back today I hope I am held up by VP candidate Paul Ryan flying in and out of Cedar Rapids at around the time my plane is supposed to take off. I asked for an earlier flight to Atlanta but they (Delta) wouldn't do it.
Assuming all goes well, this should be a decent flight: Cedar Rapids to Atlanta, couple of hours layover and then a direct flight to Dubai.
Cedar Rapids to Atlanta:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL5068
Atlanta to Dubai:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL8
When you go to bed tonight I will be on the plane and I'll still be on it until 11AM Iowa time tomorrow. It's just under 14 hours.
I am returning to the Emirates 15-20 pounds heavier than when I left. On this gluttony tour of duty I left no sausage (wurst) in Germany behind or BLT or fried potatoes in the US to waste. I took it all for the team.
For my flight back today I hope I am held up by VP candidate Paul Ryan flying in and out of Cedar Rapids at around the time my plane is supposed to take off. I asked for an earlier flight to Atlanta but they (Delta) wouldn't do it.
Assuming all goes well, this should be a decent flight: Cedar Rapids to Atlanta, couple of hours layover and then a direct flight to Dubai.
Cedar Rapids to Atlanta:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL5068
Atlanta to Dubai:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL8
When you go to bed tonight I will be on the plane and I'll still be on it until 11AM Iowa time tomorrow. It's just under 14 hours.
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