Free Fallin’

I am renewing my call for uplifting music. (I need it.) This time I’ll start with one of my own. How can a song where a guy is saying he is free fallin’ being uplifting? Because it came out in the spring of 1989 and that was me… and I realized it. This song helped me make a turn-around and I appreciate it to this day.

Ahh, the mysteries of life

A few days ago some students made an extraordinary play to get added to an already too full class. Since there were two other half empty sections available they were told "no" by lowly peons (the registration people and me) my boss and my boss' boss. An e-mail was issued to all parties that this was not going to happen, no way, no how.

Today the class met and they are in it.

An alternative look at Ukraine

I have an American colleague who is Russian. She thinks the recent election in Ukraine is good news because the (Russian leaning) winner is good at governing. She thought his opponent was, "into seeking attention but did a lousy job as Prime Minister. She's just not serious... she's the Ukrainian version of Sarah Palin."

Interesting.

You are not you when you’re hungry

I haven’t had a chance to see all of the Super Bowl ads but here are two early favorites:

The following is unbelievable:

It was filmed in Letterman’s studio.  Jay was snuck in wearing a hood, sunglasses, and a mustache (no joke).  Jay is in such need to repair his image he’ll do an ad for his competition.

Elections matter - producing results matters more

After many years of a corrupt President leading the country to ruin, the people had hope. They voted for change. Thousands took to the streets in the largest political rallies ever seen. The hard-line government was crushed. The liberals promised reforms and the people cheered.

Many years later the reforms had failed to materialize and the people became disillusioned. At the next election many stayed home and the forces of darkness returned to power.

This is the story of Ukraine 2010... And I hope it's not a preview of our future.

No? No problem, I can ask someone else

Here's a series of events played out over four hours:

Student: Sir, my friend and I need your class to graduate this spring.

Me: It's already 10 over capacity. There's no way they'll let you in and I don't have the power to sign you in. There are two other sections with many empty seats. You can get into one of those.

Student: But sir, we want to take it from you.

Me: Appreciated, but I have no power.

They go to the registration desk where they are told the class is full. They come find me and take me to the registration desk where both of us say, "Class is full and we have no power to put you in the class."

They then go to my boss, the department chair. He tells them, "No, you can sign up for one of the two other sections."

They come back to me to ask me sign a paper saying I would let them in the class. Knowing I'd never get rid of them I write: "These students need this class to graduate. If there are no alternatives I don't mind if they are added to my class." They didn't seem to get my "no alternatives" clause.

They then took the paper to the Dean of the College (my boss' boss) who also turns them down. Shortly later I get an e-mail from my boss that politely states: "Steve, I will not let ANYONE be added to your class." I wrote back that I appreciate the blanket "NO" and that I can use that for the rest who were asking.

The "I'm going to shop around until I find someone to say 'yes'" attitude ties my stomach in knots. I need to get better at saying, "No way, no how." The "sorry, I have no power" is not working well for me.

***

Later in the day a student I loved having in class last year told me he'd try to get into this class. I told him the story above and he said, "I will still try. My father has wasta (connections)." So this will be interesting.

First day of class

I only have one class on Sunday/Tuesday so this was pretty much the easiest first day of class possible.

You know all the work I planned to do over vacation that I felt guilty about not doing? It was good that I didn't do it: At that last minute we changed textbooks so that work would have been useless. The PowerPoint slides I re-wrote have gone over well. Add to that the exhaustive review of Game Change and I pretty much accomplished what I wanted during the break. I know few will read the pages of text I created for Game Change. I did it as much for myself as anyone else. When I read a book like that I need to process it. Putting it all on the blog did that for me. I wish I had done that for the book on the financial crisis. Rather than just say, "All Hail Bernanke" I'd like to have specific points to back that up. If I had done a similar post with that book I'd feel better now.

*****

I am very disappointed that the Russian is leading in the exit polls for the Ukrainian election. Anytime a country makes a turn to the dark side it is unfortunate. If for nothing else, the Ukrainian identity will be further subjugated. Imagine the US where virtually all magazines and newspapers are in Spanish. Further, almost half speak exclusively Spanish in the home in all of the southern states. Now the country is electing a leader a Mexican who not only speaks mostly in Spanish, he relies on Mexico and he'll likely rule like a dictator. If you've imagined all that you know what the western Ukrainians will feel tomorrow.

A reminder of the chaos from after the Palin selection

I remember the panic among Democrats in early September 2008. They feared that the Palin selection had doomed their chances in November. I didn't... not because I'm a particularly calm or serene person... but I had read enough about her to be confident that she'd implode. Thankfully, she didn't disappoint. It was interesting to read in Game Change that this was seen by the President during those darkest days when my friends-in-arms were peeing their pants.

Obama's reaction to seeing this to his close friend Valerie Jarrett? "This is what I've been telling you."

Game Change - The shockers.

In the posts below I have laid out my outtakes of the book. Before reading them here's my list of shockers:

• In 2007 Hillary was confident of becoming the nominee to the point that she was already thinking of her running mate. Since she knew it wouldn't be Obama she planned to have two African Americans on her selection committee so it wouldn't look so bad. (100)
• Elizabeth Edwards was "cranky" on a conference call with the Edward's team. She inquired about her health insurance and was told it was complicated and it would be explained privately after the call. "She flew into a rage. If this isn't dealt with by tomorrow, everyone's health care... will be cut off until it is fixed... I don't care if nobody has healthcare until John and I do!" (128)
• Edwards top aides tried to tell him that Rielle Hunter was a problem. He seemed to listen. When confronted with the fact it would likely bring down the campaign, Edwards was angry, "Why didn't you come to me like a fucking man and tell me to stop fucking her?"
• The effort to get Kennedy's endorsement was fierce. Bill did not help Hillary. "The day after Iowa, he phoned Kennedy and pressed for an endorsement, making the case for his wife. But Bill went on, belittling Obama in a manner that deeply offended Kennedy. Recounting the conversation later to a friend, Teddy fumed that Clinton had said, A few years ago, this guy would have been getting us coffee." (218)
• In the summer - long after conceding -Hillary could not give up her thoughts about Iowa: "'If we could have avoided Iowa, which I think would have been very difficult - I was the front-runner, blah blah blah, I had to prove my bona fides. I don't see how we could have, frankly. But I never felt good about Iowa., ever felt good about it.'"
• The book goes on, "Clinton shook her head in wonder at the Obama phenemon in the cornfields. 'You know, the Oprah thing,' she said. 'There was such a sort of cultlike, peer group pressure... They had drunk the Kool-Aid. And I am convinced they also imported people into those caucuses, which we will never prove." (265) For those who have never participated in the Iowa caucuses this may sound reasonable, but it's not. In a primary it might be, but in a caucus each precinct only gets a few delegates so stacking the deck would require an effort to bring in the Illinois ringers and evenly distribute them across the 1781 precincts in Iowa. Obama's campaign was good, but not that good.
• Told by aides in 2007 not to do immigration reform, "McCain refused. He was disgusted by Republicans in Congress and radio gasbags such as Rush Limbaugh who bashed immigrants. 'They're going to destroy the fucking party,' he would say. As McCain's town hall meetings devolved into shouting matches over immigration, the candidate let his frustration show through. He called Lindsey Graham in despair. Listen to these people, McCain said. Why would I want to be the leader of a party with such assholes."
• At the convention Hillary had written her speech. Bill came in and rewrote it. Hillary saw the rewrite just hours before she was to speak. "Hillary was furious, apopolectic. 'This is my speech!' she said, and then stalked out of the room and back to her suite. A few minutes later Bill walked into the conference room looking sheepish and chastised." (346-47) They quickly returned the speech (as best they could) to Hillary's original draft.

Game Change - The time before the Iowa caucus

As an Iowan I'm happy that the first 170 pages of the book are dominated by the run-up to the Iowa caucuses. New Hampshire got the next 20 pages. That pretty well sums up the relative importance of the two events.

Here are my takeouts with (page numbers)

• Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid believed Hillary would weigh down the senate candidates in 2008 and urged Obama to run. (33)
• More surprisingly, Chuck Schumer (the other senator from Hillary's New York) believed Hillary to be vulnerable because of Bill's more recent indiscretions. (36)
• Hillary's own investigators tracked down all the rumors and were able to conclude that "Bill was indeed having an affair - and not a frivolous one-night stand but a sustained romantic relationship." (50-51)
• David Geffen (Hollywood magnate who was an early supporter of Bill Clinton twenty years ago) was disturbed by Bill's travels with playboy Ron Burkle. When 'asked if he thought if Bill was was still fooling around, Geffen would reply, 'Do you think the Pope's a Catholic?'" (87)
• Prior to deciding to run Obama spoke at the Harkin Steak Fry (which I still kick myself for missing) (56), felt good about Iowa (64), knew that if he won Iowa he'd likely be the nominee (62) and even conducted focus groups in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. (65) <-- Really? I would love to know anyone who participated in that focus group.
• Hillary spent $45 million on her senate reelection in 2006 against a weak opponent. That left her only $10 million to roll over to the presidential campaign. (78) That senate campaign with a way too large high-priced staff was a sign of the future.
• Because Iowa had come to know Edwards (or so we thought) during the 2004 campaign he was the early front runner in 2007. Hillary's own poll had it at 38% Edwards with Obama and her tied at 16%. "...she put on a brave face. 'It's better than I thought it would be,' she said. 'We have our work cut out for us." (93)
• "If Hillary was going to be competitive there she would need to go all out. The problem was, she hated it there." (94) Later on the same page: "She found the Iowans diffident and presumptuous; she felt they were making her grovel... Over and over, she complained about the system that gave Iowa so much power in selecting the nominee. 'This is so stupid,' she would say. 'So unfair.'"
• One of Hillary's people - Mike Henry - wrote a memo in May 2007 explaining why she should skip Iowa. He was stupid enough to also send it to a friend and less than 12 hours later The New York Times had it. (95) Once it became public there was no way she could pull out of Iowa because it would have been read as a defeat.
• Bill Clinton was not happy that the credo in Iowa politics is that you can't go negative. "... the one thing Iowans won't abide was negative campaigning." (98) I'm not sure I believe that, but it's often said. Anyhow, "Bill wondered if Iowa was laying a triple whammy on his wife: she couldn't attack, she couldn't quit, and she couldn't win." (98)
• While Hillary didn't like Iowa she did fully understand the state's importance as she told her people, "You realize... we're only Iowa away from winning this." I whole-heartedly agree. If Hillary had won the Iowa caucus she'd be president now.
• Obama bored people at early town hall meetings "taking ten minutes to respond to the simplest inquiries." (110) Yes, yes, and yes. While I love thoughtful answers, Obama's inability to be concise made me wonder if he was the right guy to be the nominee.
• It's amazing how many fellow senators did not want Hillary to be the nominee. At one point in 2007 Schumer was "telling fellow senators that Obama needed to take a two-by-four to Hillary." And since Obama wasn't willing to do it they wondered if he was tough enough to win. (116)
• Obama knew he wasn't at the top of his game in the fall of 2007. He and his team planned for the Des Moines Jefferson-Jackson dinner to be the turn around for his campaign as it had been for Gore and Kerry. (120)
• On Elizabeth Edwards: "The nearly universal assessment among (the Edward's aides) was that there was no one on the national stage for whom the disparity between public image and private reality was more disturbing." (127) Neither Edwards nor his wife come out looking good in this book.
• The book explains that Jefferson-Jackson (known as JJ in the political geek world) was the turn around for Obama's campaign. (150-51) But it really misses why he won the event so clearly: Hillary performed terribly. She had a sore throat and her voice was off. In this large indoor arena she spoke only to her crowd, keeping her back to the rest of the audience. Bill sensed JJ was a turning point for Obama. (155)
  
• Our former Gov. Vilsack proved he was clueless in advising Hillary's campaign. (153) He said, the young will not caucus so Obama's big crowds of young people are nothing to worry about.
• The book goes to great lengths to detail dissension within Hillary's campaign. Specifically, how much everyone hated her pollster Mark Penn and thought that her campaign manager Patti Soylis Doyle was in over her head. Both points were widely talked about during the campaign.
• Penn was proud of how many times he was able to say "cocaine" in reference to Obama during a Hardball interview. (163)
• Hillary's campaign thought the Register's endorsement might help them win the Iowa caucuses. (164)

Just before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus, every campaign went into their final pitch. I remember seeing Hillary at the Vinton high school. Her performance stunned me and the book explains it well: "Hillary embarked on what The New York Times described as a 'likability tour' of Iowa. She brought her husband along to vouch for her warm and fuzzy side. She brought her best friend from sixth grade. She brought farmers from New York to tell Iowans how she'd helped them... Gone from her speeches were any strident tones. Speaking as if she were on Quaaludes, her voice was bedtime story soft, her cadences syrupy slow." (165) She did speak as though she was on quaaludes and I will never understand why they did it.

• Vilsack again proved what little feel he had for his own party and state. When the Register released its final poll showing Obama with a strong seven point lead he said he couldn't believe they were projecting 220,000 to show up. "And Vilsack, who knew the caucuses like the back of his hand, took one look at the numbers and said, 'That can't be right.'" (171)

Vilsack had a reason for his opinion: The previous high was 124,000 in 2004. But anyone in Iowa in 2008 knew it was an entirely new world. The Register actually underestimated turnout; the Iowa caucuses had 234,000 attendees.

Game Change - the rest of the Democratic race

Here we go:

• On the day of the New Hampshire primary Hillary demoted her close friend and campaign manager... by e-mail. (187)

After losing Iowa but winning New Hampshire and Nevada Bill insisted on going to the next contest - South Carolina. The campaign wanted to write off the state and focus on the mega-contests on Super Tuesday but Bill insisted. He proceeded to offend blacks and many who had long admired him (including me). "All during the campaign, media and cocktail party psychobabble had abounded as to whether the former president actually wanted his wife to win. Now, for the first time, Hillary's closest aides began to contemplate the question seriously - asking themselves whether, on some unconscious level, he'd been trying to sabotage her." (212-13)

• After Obama dominated Hillary 55-27 in South Carolina Bill pointed out, "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88. Jesse ran a good campaign here. And Obama ran a good campaign here." (214) The attempt to marginalize Obama as the "black candidate" was not lost on the Obama campaign.
• While Iowa put the Obama train into motion, North Carolina sealed the deal. As Tim Russert said that night, "We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be and no one is going to dispute it." (249)
• Hillary told Penn she wasn't interested in being VP, "I've already done that job." (261). From what I've read from Gore I think he'd agree.

Game Change - The Republican primary

There's much less interesting stuff in the Republican primary contest. Although McCain's campaign was given last rites by the media in the summer of 2007 he stayed in because he perceived (correctly) that the rest of the field was weak. Given the winner-take-all rules of many of the Republican primaries McCain won - not because he was most popular - but that Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson split the conservative vote.

Anyhow, here goes:

• After a 4th of July trip to Iraq he quipped, "I'm the only one I know who would go to Iraq to get away from it all."
• Giuliani, McCain and Huckabee were all taking a piss before a debate. While doing their business they made fun of Romney "Poking fun at him, mocking him, agreeing how much they disliked him." Of course, Romney walked in... (293)
• "McCain routinely called Romney an 'asshole' and a 'fucking phony.' Giuliani opined, 'That guy will say anything.' Huckabee complained, 'I don't think Romney has a soul." (294) Ouch, that's harsh coming from a preacher!

Game Change - the general election

Here we go:

• "...McCain's view of Obama was firmly fixed and strikingly similar to the one that Hillary held: Obama was a lightweight, a line cutter, a go-along-to-get-alonger who pretended to be a man of independence, and who bore none of the scars of political sacrifice that McCain wore as medals of honor." (325)
• McCain ran effective celebrity ads in late July/early August 2008 comparing Obama to Paris Hilton. The campaign nixed one with Oprah in it with the campaign manager saying, "'Don't politicize Oprah. She's more powerful than you can comprehend, like Obi-Wan Kenobi.'" (330)
• Obama remarked that he didn't look like other presidents. True, but it led the McCain campaign to accuse him of playing the race card... To which Obama told his people, "McCain is playing the race card by accusing me of playing the race card." (333)
• While the Clintons were on board the Obama campaign, "The Arizonan regularly phoned Bill and chatted with him about foreign policy. Boy, McCain gets it, the Clintons would tell people. John McCain is tough."(344)
• Obama found Biden to be boring. While in the senate he listened to Biden go on and on Obama passed a note to the guy who is now his press secretary saying, "Shoot me now." (28) I saw the same expression when I saw Biden speak at the Blue Strawberry in CR.
• Lieberman was McCain's first choice to be VP (not Tom Ridge as many speculated when they trial ballooned the idea of a pro-choice VP). Lieberman wondered, "Am I going to have the unique honor to be the only person in history to lose twice as vice president on two different tickets?" (356)
• While the McCain campaign knew they hadn't come close to fully vetting Palin's background they were not concerned about her understanding of issues. "They didn't explore her preparedness to be vice president. They assumed she knew as much as the average governor..." (362) Wow, understandable, but wow.
• Campaign manager Schmidt couldn't believe Palin's calm before being announced as the VP selection. "Palin nodded and replied, 'It's God's plan.'" (364)
• Schmidt later realized that Palin might not know as much as the average governor. Telling the group charged with getting her up to speed, "'You guys have a lot of work to do. She doesn't know anything.'" (370)
• McCain left Bernanke "flabbergasted" by his lack of understanding of the financial crisis. (381)
• The suspension of the McCain campaign is presented as a huge blunder. Even President Bush was not happy at the meeting where he was forced (by the McCain campaign) to call the leaders of Congress together with Obama and McCain. "Bush was dumbfounded by McCain's behavior. He'd forced Bush to hold a meeting that the president saw as pointless - and then sat there like a bump on a log. Unconstructive, thought Bush. Unclear. Ineffectual." (389)
• McCain's performance during the financial crisis led Treasury Secretary Paulson's chief of staff to say, "'I'm a pro-life, pro-gun, Texas Republican. I worked all eight years for Bush. I helped sell the Iraq War. I was in the Florida recount. And I wrote a letter to John McCain asking for my five hundred dollar contribution back, when he pulled that stunt and came back to DC. Because it just isn't what a serious person does.' To his amazement, Wilkinson determined that he would be voting for Obama." (393)
• In the attempt to buck up Palin after disastrous interviews on ABC and CBS, she was told, "Ronald Reagan said that trees cause pollution and went on to be a great president." (402)
• Palin kept calling Biden "O'Biden" during debate prep leading to the decision for her to ask if she could just call him Joe. Dems were worried that Biden would talk patronizingly. He avoided it but given how many times she goofed during the debate Biden told his handlers, "You guys owe me. You don't know how much restraint that took." (407)
• Towards the end of the campaign, "Some in McCain-world were ridden with guilt over elevating Palin to within striking distance of the White House." (416)
• In October an Ohio focus group of undecided voters met where one "middle-aged woman let loose with... 'He's a Muslim. He's soft on terrorism - because he's a muslim. He doesn't (put his hand on his heart). We're not even sure he was born in this country.'" The moderator was confused... she is an undecided voter? "Because if McCain dies, Palin would be president." (416)
• One of the reason Powell endorsed Obama is that "He was startled by the crazies at (McCain's) rallies." (422)

Game Change - After the election

Here goes:

• Hillary flew to Chicago with the plan to kill the Secretary of State request before it became official. Quoting James Carville she said, "Once you're asked, you're fucked."
• Hillary warmed to the idea when she realized returning to the senate was not going to be what she hoped. "She had come back thinking her campaign had enhanced her status, that she could snag herself some kind of plum position." Kennedy and Reid shot her down. "Behind the scenes (Reid) and Schumer were beseeching the Obamans to take Hillary off their hands." (432-433)
• In debating Obama against taking the Secretary of State position she said of her husband, "You know I can't control him, and at some point he'll be a problem."

Wow. There you have it. It feels like I spent as much time explaining this book as I did reading it.

December 12, 2009

That was the one day I did not see the sun. Today's rain and lightning reminded me because the sun was only out for an hour before it hit.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: There's no underestimating the positive effect of seeing the sun every day. (Although clouds disappear in May and by early July I'd do anything to see something more than haze.)

Two days ago I made the mistake of wearing a brand new pair of contacts out into a sandstorm. I was only outside for a brief time before I came back to wear glasses. I cleaned the contacts twice and hoped to wear them today. Nope. Once the really fine sand embeds the contacts they are unusable. And contacts are EXPENSIVE here.

Unemployment: Not good news

A drop in the unemployment because more jobs are created is good news. A drop in the unemployment rate while another 22,000 jobs are lost is bad news. I was hoping for a reverse in this morning's news: Unemployment rate up and 50,000 net jobs created. The month we get that will be the real sign we've turned the corner.

Vacation

I have to one of the few people in the world that does not enjoy or look forward to vacations. Oh, I like lounging around and spending hours on the internet; I can't deny that... but it's always with guilt that I should be doing something. So for virtually every vacation I set goals of what I will accomplish. And, of course, I never meet them.

This vacation is over. Classes start on Sunday. I'm trying not to be too down on myself for the lack of accomplishments. Vacations are supposed to be about sleeping in and not taking a shower until 6PM, right? If only I could convince myself.

Related news: I might, just might be home for my birthday next September. Given the timing of Ramadan this year (and the eid celebration/vacation that follows it) it doesn't make much sense to start classes and after the first week send everyone home for a week of vacation... so the thinking is that we'll start after that week of vacation. That would mean a start of September 19th at the earliest.

My birthday is on Thursday September 16. The idea of being home for a big birthday party is very appealing... with me getting on a plane the next morning to make it in time for the first class on Sunday.

One of my favorite quotes of all time

Taking a break after inhaling the first 100 pages of Game Change, I checked FaceBook. In my mailbox was a question from a friend (and fellow Resident Assistant) from Coe about a student on my floor.

Being the overly eager RA I looked forward to meeting the new students during the summer orientations. Before I met any of them I met a mother who spoke with a slow-drawn accent that could easily be confused with Lousiana. She said emphatically, "M-y s-o-n is comin' to Coe to major in futball and minor in rassling."

In my three years as an RA it was very easy to pick out the one-term one-year wonders. (No matter how badly any student performed in the first semester Coe would almost always give them a second chance for the spring.) After a while I was concerned of the ethics of the admissions department. Go to Iowa with the plan to be pre-med and you're told you'll have to get accepted into the program after you prove yourself with grades. At Coe you're told, "Major in Biology. If you're accepted to the college you're guaranteed in the program. Many of our biology graduates have gone on to be doctors..." That's true, but telling that to a kid with a 17 ACT is disingenuous at best, but more accurately it's deceitful.

In the case of the kid above, Lonnie reminded me that the "futball major" was a presidential scholar. A fact that my love for my alma mater had allowed me to repress. I do remember he lasted less than two years.

Game Change

A friend who was back in the US for the break returned today and brought me the book. It's the tell-all background book of the 2008 race. Here's a quote from the first page:

"The past months in Iowa had been a blur of high school gyms, union halls and snow0dusted cornfields. Obama was surging, he could sense it... His strategy from day one been crystalline: win and Iowa and watch the dominoes fall."

As one who appreciates Iowa's importance in the political process I like reading this on the first page. I think I'm gonna like this book.

Warm winter?

So back in October I posted a map from the National Weather Service predicting a warmer than normal winter. You can read the original post here and the map is below.

And the prediction was accurate... for November. Remember all those wonderful 50 and 60 degree days in November?

Starting on December 2 the bottom fell out. December was colder than normal and January was way colder than normal.

So what gives? Today state climatologist Harry Hillaker explained the forecast on Iowa Public Radio's The Exchange. The reason the NWS got it wrong is el nino. For all ten previous el ninos the upper midwest had a mild/warmer winter. Since there's a strong el nino in play right now it was easy to forecast a mild/warm winter this year.

The host also asked about ice. It seemed to the host that there's more ice now than in the past. Hillaker responded that the NWS measures precipitation and snow, not ice. "Don't you think they should?" asked the host.

To the longtime Iowans I ask, "Do you think there are more freezing rain ice storms than there were twenty-thirty years ago?"