Iowa polling update

Ann Selzer conducts the Iowa Poll for the  Des Moines Register and she certainly knows Iowa better than other pollster.

The Iowa Poll is the gold standard of Iowa polls.  This poll alone showed the come from behind wins for Tom Harkin way back in 1984 against incumbent senator Jepsen.  It showed Vilsack's come from behind win over Lightfoot in 1998.  In 2008 all other polls showed a tight race between Hillary, Edwards and Obama.  The DM Register predicted a blow-out 7 point win for Obama.  They were right and Iowa's former governor was wrong.

Today they are out with a new poll and it shows:
Obama - 49%
Romney - 45%

So Obama is ahead but not by a lot.

Iowa Democrats should be happy but not complacent.  I'm not geeky enough to remember the details but I'm pretty sure Jepsen and Lightfoot had bigger leads a month before the election and still lost.

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As much I want to think Iowa is the center of the political universe (without Iowa Hillary would be president now instead of Barack), in this election the real center of the universe is Ohio.
A new poll there:
Obama 51%
Romney 42%

This comes after the Romney/Ryan bus trip through Ohio.  Realistically, they'd like to cut their losses and run but there just aren't many good places to run.

Oh, how I wish the election were two days away instead of 37.

Iowa polls

Besides reelecting Obama the greatest joy to sane people of Iowa would be the defeat of Steve King.  He's the biggest embarrassment to come out of Iowa in my lifetime.

Unfortunately, he represents solidly Republican western Iowa.

A new poll shows Iowa's former first lady just behind him:
King: 48%
Vilsack: 45%

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Iowa Presidential polls completed in the past ten days:

Obama 50, Romney 42 - Obama up by 8  (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)
Obama 44, Romney 47 - Romney up by 3 (Rasmussen)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (ARG - no link available)
Obama 46, Romney 47 - Romney up by 1 (TIR-Voter/Consumer Research)
Obama 51, Romney 44 - Obama up by 7 (Public Policy Poling - PPP)

Bias in polls has been all the rage on the right for the past two weeks.  "The polls are over sampling Demorats so it is not surprising the Demorats are winning."*

Iowa will be the best state to test their hypothesis.  Above we have 3 polls showing an Obama lead outside of the margin of error - 8 points, 7 points, 7 points.  There are 2 two polls showing a 3 point and 1 point lead for Romney.  The first pollster, Rasmussen, has a high "house-effect" for Republicans.  Basically, his polls always skew 3-5 points better for Republicans than all other polls.

The other poll from TIR-Voter/Consumer Research left me scratching my head.  I've never heard of them.  When I clicked on the link of the organization I found it was sponsored by the Iowa Republican with the story written by Craig Robinson.

YES!  The very same Craig Robinson who I quoted in the post below this one saying Ryan would have to get the "stench of Romney" off of him.  Robinson has written a post saying he was quoted accurately.

I believe NBC-ARG-PPP are right about Iowa.  I think Obama has the state pretty safely.

Why?  My party is winning the ground game.  Of early ballots requested 119,000 were by Democrats, 25,000 were by Republicans.

Democrats have nearly a 5-1 advantage on early voting.

And guess what?  Of the 25,000 Republican requests one is mine.  I never changed my affiliation after the Iowa caucuses in January so I am still a registered Republican.

*  Yes, I know how to spell Democrat.  I've spent enough time reading Republican blogs that I can channel them.

Quote of the day

With friends like these Mitt, well...

Craig Robinson - the former political director for Republicans in the state of Iowa (home of the first contest for Republicans in 2016) said this:

“I hate to say this, but if Ryan wants to run for national office again, he’ll probably have to wash the stench of Romney off of him.” 

Unfortunately for him he made the comment to a New York Times  reporter.

Hannity forums

To check on the meltdown on the Republican side I like to check in on Sean Hannity's forums.

Current topics include:
"Can a Christian be a Democrat?"
"Kids aren't like Maochelle's new lunch laws"

Misspelling the First Lady's name is, of course, intentional.  Anytime you can make a communist reference...

What's been fascinating over the past two weeks is how the collective group has moved so quickly through all of the phases of grief:

Denial:  The polls are wrong.  It's just a convention bounce, that's all.
Anger:  Democrats lied so much during the convention it is no wonder they are ahead.
Bargaining:  The debates!  If only Romney kicks ass in the debates he'll be back in this!
Depression:  Obama's going to win and he is going to destroy the only parts of America he hasn't already destroyed.

So when will we see acceptance?  When the Super Pac's switch their spending on Romney to Senate and House candidates.

State of the race - Six weeks out

Two weeks ago I didn't understand the meltdown in the Romney campaign.  Yes, Obama got a convention bounce but not a huge one.  It didn't seem like a time to panic.  But I think the Romney campaign was seeing internal polls showing a shift before the public polls did.  Now a slew of swing state polls have been released and Obama is consistently ahead 4-8 points in all of them.  The most crushing for Romney?  A poll showing Obama head by 4 in North Carolina.  Romney's had a lead for most of the year in NC so that has to hurt.

But THE STATE TO WATCH is Ohio.  If Obama wins Ohio Romney can win the swing states of Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina AND Florida and still lose.

Since 1900 no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio.  (I stopped looking when I got back to 1900, it could have been longer than that.)

Polls show 3 - 8 point lead for Obama in the state but that's not the reason to be depressed if you are in Romney's camp.  The real reason to panic?  Romney's unfavorably rating in Ohio stands at 50.5%.  Only 43.1% view him favorably.  When half of the people don't like you there is no chance you will win.  (Obama's current favorability in Ohio is 55.4)

I had hope to post the graph but I couldn't so if you are interested you can see it all here.

Mitt and Paul Ryan will be spending the next three days camped out in Ohio with hopes to turn it around.  It may seem dumb to put so much time and energy in a state that seems hopeless but when the alternative is trying to sway many small states (like Iowa) camping out in Ohio seems like the least bad option.

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The biggest tell that the wheels have fallen off the campaign bus:  Former Minnesota Governor Pawlenty resigning as national co-chair to take a multi-million dollar lobbying job.  If Romney had been elected there were several cabinet posts for him to choose from.  Pawlenty saw the writing on the wall and decided to take the money and run.  No rat has ever jumped faster from a sinking ship.

* New blog rule:  No more than two metaphors per paragraph. *

A Facebook birthday by the numbers

This year 172 posted birthday wishes on my FB wall.  Last year it was 175.  In 2010 it was 116 and in 2009 it was 54 posts

Trust me I don't keep these stats I just had to look them up and the reason was not vanity.

The reason?  I pretty much only check FB on mobile - phone or iPad.  On mobile you don't see birthdays so I know I have missed most of my friends' birthdays over the past year.  I would have expected the number of "Happy birthdays!" to be way lower this year and I am surprised they were not.

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My friend Travis made me think of this when he posted on the cupcake picture below that he felt bad he had forgotten my birthday.  I suspect he missed it because he, too, only sees FB on mobile.

(Never mind that I know his birthday - May 13 - and that it is the same day as Sandy's anniversary...  It's no big deal; I'm just a better friend.)

Coca-Cola cupcakes!

Some former students surprised me today with Coca-Cola birthday cupcakes!

Conversations

Last night I met up with a former student from Egypt.  In the course of conversation I asked for his thoughts on the uprisings in Egypt and Libya.  I said, "First, it was not a film, it is just a trailer.  Second, the trailer was awful.  If there was no uprising NOBODY would have ever seen it."

He replied that governments have people in every country they can call on to make problems.  I said, "Really?"  He seemed shocked at my naivete. He agreed that the outrage was ridiculous and based on something stupid but...

The protesters were paid squadrons from Obama.  

Wow, if only the Romney campaign could get a hold of that!

He explained that Obama is doing this to generate support before the election.  I said, "I appreciate your giving me your honest view of the situation.  I absolutely, 100%, disagree.  Creating fear of Muslims is just not something that would help Obama.  Those that are scared of Muslims vote Republican."

*****

Tonight I had a conversation with a former student who is now living in Canada.  He is not excited about the prospect of cold temperatures and the requisite clothing:

winter in canada women will be like wearing Hijab - showing nothin

I laughed out loud.  I suspect he will find that there are dance bars and other places where women don't wear anything close to a hijab (head scarf).

Best reader reaction

I've been all over this 47% story and here's the best reader reaction I've read:

"A candidate might stick his foot in his mouth.  A candidate might shoot himself in the foot.  But only Mitt Romney can stick his foot in the mouth and then shoot it."

Why the water cooler matters

I was happy to see the Mitt Romney video saying that the 47% of the population who don't pay federal income taxes are "victims" and "dependent on the government."

Happy because I think this is the nail in the coffin of his candidacy and because I've heard the same thing over and over listening to right wing talk radio and reading right wing blogs.  It's just nice to have it out in the open.

First, the 47% Romney identifies as moochers includes the elderly, students, and the working poor.  Here's a good breakdown.

Second, I find it highly ironic because Romney is part of the 47%!  His income for the past couple of years has come from interest made from investments.  He has not "income" therefore, he has not paid income taxes.

Third, read the reactions:

David Brooks:  "Personally, I think he’s a kind, decent man who says stupid things because he is pretending to be something he is not — some sort of cartoonish government-hater. But it scarcely matters. He’s running a depressingly inept presidential campaign.

Brooks also asks:  "Who are these freeloaders? Is it the Iraq war veteran who goes to the V.A.? Is it the student getting a loan to go to college? Is it the retiree on Social Security or Medicare?"

Rich Lowry:  "... he should make it clear that he doesn’t think they are half the country, and also make it clear that he knows many hard-working people don’t pay federal income taxes, although they do pay other taxes and if they could earn more income, would pay federal income taxes, too. The overall impression of Romney at this event is of someone who overheard some conservative cocktail chatter and maybe read a conservative blog or two, and is thoughtlessly repeating back what he heard and read."

David Frum:  "Mitt Romney has just committed the worst presidential-candidate gaffe since Gerald Ford announced in 1976 that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe."

So who are Brooks, Lowry, and Frum?  Conservative Republicans.

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I titled this post, "Why the water cooler matters."  A campaign is lost when supporters think, "Meh, that's not worth defending."  It's a feeling I remember well back in 2004.  Kerry's remark that he voted for the defense appropriation bill before he voted against it actually made sense if you heard the entire quote... but I didn't defend it when my colleagues made fun of it around the office.  It just wasn't worth it.

Romney's supporters are going to have a hard time defending a quote that calls low paid workers, students, uniformed military and senior citizens moochers.

Again, as a long time political geek I have never, never seen a campaign go down this quickly.

Blogs/links I added and why

First, I deleted the Iowa politics link because (sadly) they stopped updating information months ago.  It is a horrible thing when a blog suddenly goes silent.

Err, wait a minute....

Of the links I added:  Electoral Vote is the most interesting.  I've been following this guy since 2004.  He scours the web for every possible poll for every state.  Nobody has more up-to-date information than him.  This election cycle he has a fascinating link called "This day in 2008."  I find it incredibly hard to believe that Obama is in better shape in the middle of September 2012 than he was in the middle of September 2008.  But then I remember that the Lehman collapse came on September 15 and most people at this point didn't realize Sarah Palin was Sarah Palin.

First Read is for political junkies.  It is primarily written by Chuck Todd who is pretty much the Dean of Washington political pundits.  

I also added the Gallup daily tracking poll.  Gallup's management leans Republican but their data seems to be clean.  It's kind of like Nate Silver who writes the 538 blog (also linked to the right).  Nate is certainly an Obama supporter but his polling analysis is solid enough that nobody questions it.  He calls it as it is and had no problem saying the Republicans would win a landslide in 2010.  

State of the race

As a political junkie I can't think of many times where I've seen a presidential race turn so quickly on so little real news.  Think about it:  Clinton gave a good speech defending Obama.  Obama gave a mediocre (by Obama standards) speech accepting the nomination.

Within days the Romney campaign went off the rails saying things like, "We'll repeal Obamacare but keep the parts that are popular."  And, "People making between $200,000 and $250,000 are middle class."  And then he questioned whether Obama would want to take "In God we trust" off of our coins.  And then there is the jump-the-gun response to the attacks on the embassies.

I have never seen a campaign go from confident to freaked out this quickly.  Yes, McCain rolled the dice with picking Palin but he was solidly behind at that time.  He had to roll the dice.  Romney was a point below dead even a week ago.

For every campaign there is a book or two that does in-depth reporting on each campaign.  In 2008 it was a book called "Game Change" and I wrote several posts about it.  Win or lose for my side, I look forward to reading the book because something caused Romney to become unhinged in the past week and I can't wait to read the back story.

The election day is still over six weeks away so there's no champagne bottles being popped here... but I am pinching myself with disbelief at my side's change of fortune.

Returning to the Emirates

I came.  I saw.  I ate everything I saw.

I am returning to the Emirates 15-20 pounds heavier than when I left.  On this gluttony tour of duty I left no sausage (wurst) in Germany behind or BLT or fried potatoes in the US to waste.  I took it all for the team.

For my flight back today I hope I am held up by VP candidate Paul Ryan flying in and out of Cedar Rapids at around the time my plane is supposed to take off.  I asked for an earlier flight to Atlanta but they (Delta) wouldn't do it.

Assuming all goes well, this should be a decent flight:  Cedar Rapids to Atlanta, couple of hours layover and then a direct flight to Dubai.

Cedar Rapids to Atlanta:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL5068

Atlanta to Dubai:
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL8

When you go to bed tonight I will be on the plane and I'll still  be on it until 11AM Iowa time tomorrow.  It's just under 14 hours.