Election 2018

I used to make election predictions. In 2008 and 2012 I got all 50 states correct.  That's one state better than the properly worshiped Nate Silver who got Indiana wrong in 2008. I didn't post in 2016. I was confident of Hillary's victory but Nate Silver's warning that a systemic error could be at play made me nervous. In the end that's what it was. The same forces that caused Iowa to go from +6 Obama to +9.5% Trump could sweep across the Midwest. Unfortunately, it did. Trump carried Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by razor thin pluralities.  Even though Hillary won by 3 million votes in the country, Trump is president by our ridiculous Electoral College.

Now we are at the 2018 midterms. I am just superstitious enough that it is difficult to write this post but for my own sake I want to get this on the record: I believe my side will win the House by gaining 45 seats.

Most pundits, plus 538, plus Politico have reached a consensus of 35 seats.  I am willing to bet anyone the Dem gain will not be 28-40.  To me there are only two options: 

1. Things don't go well. Worst case the House stays with R's with 2-3 seats to a small Dem majority.  In the things don't go well scenario Dems pick up 20-27 seats. (We need 23 to have a majority.)

2. Everything breaks our way. We Dems are shell-shocked by 2016. We got it wrong and so we are scared unbelievably. In this election we have the energy, (unbelievably) the money, and history on our side. A real wave crashing down means we will win districts we have no business even playing in - like Kentucky 6th district very conservative but a female fighter pilot making a hell of a run.  I think that's going to happen.

Either things don't go well or they go awesome.  The 35 seat pick up assumes things go according to plan. Historically that just doesn't happen.  

For the Senate, my side has an awful map - the worst for an incumbent party in over a hundred years.  We have 10 incumbents (out of 33 up for reelection) in states Trump won. I don't see how we win the Senate given that we are down 2 now and it appears North Dakota is a loss for us.  I am not entirely pessimistic; of R seats in Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Tennessee I think we will win 2, maybe 3. A 50-50 senate is still an R senate given the VP has the tie-breaking vote... Realistically, I see 51 to 53 seat Republican majority.

My fellow Dems will hopefully fare better in the gubernatorial races with pickups across the Midwest and very hopefully Florida and Georgia. For Iowa, their is one poll that is nearly flawless in reading the Iowa electorate:  The Seltzer poll for the Des Moines Register. Their poll released on Saturday has challenger Dem Hubbell up 46-44 over incumbent R Reynolds.  I don't want to seem overly optimistic but an incumbent at 46 before an election rarely wins. At 45 very rarely. At 44?  I have no memory of any incumbent winning with a pre-election poll at 44.