2012 predictions

I predict Obama will win 332 electoral votes vs. 206 for Romney.  This would mean a sweep of almost all of the battleground states:  Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.  Romney will take North Carolina.

You can see the map here:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkGB

I am unsettled by the prediction of Colorado and Florida.  I wouldn't be surprised if Romney carried either or both.  I also think there is a chance Romney could pull a big upset in Pennsylvania.  The Philadelphia area - which votes heavily Democratic - was hit hard by the storm.  The good news is that Obama could lose all three and still win 274 - 264.

The senate will remain 53 - 47 (unchanged) for the Democrats and in the House Democrats will pick up 5-8 seats.  This prediction would be good news if true for the senate.  Only a few months it looked like Republicans would take over now that seems virtually impossible.  On the House side a pickup of 5-8 is a bit of a disappointment vs. expectations.

My map may seem more generous to the president than the last polls warrant.  Here's my reasoning:  1. There's been a subtle but real move towards the president nationally of 1-3 points since Sandy. 2.  The most recent national poll for NBC asked the undecideds about how they feel about Obama and Romney.  Obama was viewed far more favorably so it is reasonable to assume that if these people vote at all - which many won't... but if they do Obama should fare well.

If anyone else wants to make a prediction using 270towin.com e-mail or put it in the comments and I will place them here.

The best predictors for Obama

You can look at this summary of nine prognosticators who all predict an Obama win or...

You can listen to the right's two favorite pundits:  Karl "Turd Blossom" Rove and Dick "I love to suck the toes of my prostitute" Morris.  For quite a while both have been predicting a solid Romney win.

On Tuesday Dick Morris went further:  He predicted a landslide for Romney.  He even titled his story, "Here comes the landslide."  That's as definitive as it gets.  Romney not only wins, but he wins in a landslide that will sweep Republicans into a 53-47 control of the senate.

On Saturday he changes his tune with, "Sudden danger signs in polling.."  Umm, no.  Polling has been remarkably consistent.  At this point there's a point or two bump for a Obama in a few polls but nothing dramatic.

Now, Rove, too is saying the race has changed because of Sandy.

I do think Sandy was a game changer.  If I'm right the change was from a nail-biting win for Obama to a solid win for Obama.  It was never from "landslide Romney to win for Obama."

This if nothing but major CYA and nothing more.  And when Fox news' favorite guys for red meat are saying, "Uh-oh, things don't look so good anymore" you can believe them on this one.  They want to retain their jobs as pundits so to say at the last minute, "Oh, now the world is different" is just enough to keep their jobs.

Random campaign thoughts

First, the humorous:  Republican blogs and the Hannity Forum turned it up to 11 when they heard that Romney was up by 4 points in Pennsylvania.  (Pennsylvania is not considered a battleground.)  So Romney is winning a state that was considered safe for Obama!?! Wow!!

The real story?  The poll is two weeks old and was a Republican internal poll.  Not much to see here folks but it was nice to shine a glimmer of hope for them.

Second, there's a line from the first debate that haunts me.  In discussing health care proposals Romney said his plan covered pre-existing conditions.  The problem is that his plan doesn't.  It only covers pre-existing conditions if you have been continuously covered.

Why does this bother me so much?  Romney's attempt to appear moderate may actually convince someone who - like me - has pre-existing conditions to vote for him because Romney implied there is no difference.  Under Romney's plan I will not be able to buy insurance.  Under Obamacare I will be able to buy insurance in 2014.

There are lies and then there are cynical, terribly hurtful lies.  Telling 90% of those with pre-existing conditions that they will be covered when they won't is...  is...

I guess I don't have a word for it.

State of the race

Halloween - a day that is supposed to scare us - was the first day I have felt good since October 2, the night of the first debate.  Obama took a solid and consistent lead and drove it into the ground with a debate performance that I will never understand.

For most of the past month I have scared... scared of the chance that Romney will actually win.  Rasmussen has him up in national and state polls, but then again Rasmussen has a Republican bias.  Gallup, who I generally trust, has Romney up by 5 points in the national polls.  As I've said before, if Romney is really winning by 5 points the state polls don't matter; Romney is our next president.

So why did I finally feel good yesterday?  Here are the state polls from October 31:

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of Cincinnati)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Gravis)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (We Ask America)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Romney 45%, Obama 44% (University of Iowa)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 42% (EPIC-MRA)

North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44% (Roanoke)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (Marquette Law)

Obama doesn't need to win Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado or even Iowa to remain president.  By these polls Romney will have to run the table and win everything in sight to be the next president.

Like I said, I've not felt well about this election since the first debate.  At this point I'm not cocky; I'm still scared.  But my way of looking at the world is:  "Would I rather be in the other guy's shoes?"  As scared as I am, I'd rather be on my side given these polls.

Herman Cain, seriously?

I have been blogging for a little over four years and I've had posts disappear and reappear for no reason.  I was a little surprised tonight when I logged on saw the post right below this one.  I wrote it at least a year ago.

I have no idea what else to say.  I was going to delete the post below, but hey, since I don't write much anymore a post is a post so I will it stand.  :)

Trained animal?

I am following the implosion of Herman Cain with great interest.
Ann Coulter:
That's why our blacks are so much better than their blacks.