Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Pre-debate thoughts

I can't recall ever being so anxious before a debate. Perhaps its because there has never been so much at stake. with numerous polls showing the race a dead heat and 30 percent of the undecided saying this debate is what will help them make up their minds. That's enough to win (or lose) this race.

Historically these debates are overrated. Hillary beat Trump in 2016 debates. Kerry beat Bush in 2004. No impact on the final outcome. Obama lost to Romney in the first debate in 2012 but was able to come back to decisively win the next two debates.

The most famous debate moment of my lifetime was in the VP debates:


Even this debacle didn't have an effect; Bush crushed Dukakis less than a month later.

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The only debate that has really mattered was in June when Biden revealed his declining faculties. Like many of my fellow Democrats I realized that the motto "riden with Biden" should be changed to "Losing with Grandpa." I was surprised at how many of my fellow Democrats were upset with those of us who said he had to drop out. "You are doing more damage to Biden than the Republicans" is how one friend put it. I replied, "I belong to a political party, not a cult. My goal is to win and we can't win with this guy." 

I even went onto FB and made a post about a beloved quarterback getting injured in the 4th quarter. If the goal is to win the game the backup must be put in the game. Even that was derided by several friends. 

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Because of the expectations game, Trump simply has to show up and answer every question with "the border" or "inflation" and he will be heralded. So long as he doesn't call her a bitch on live TV he will seem restrained. 

For Harris he goal is to appear authoritative, empathetic, and rational. She is all of those things but... but... there will be an attempt to paint her as shrill, patronizing, etc. A man can state something forcefully and be lauded for it. A woman doing the same can (and often is) regarded as a bitch.

There are more landmines in her path. Fortunately for her, Trump often likes triggering landmines. For that reason, I am cautiously optimistic. 

After a long walk with Cujo it's now 5AM and the show is to begin. 

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