Iowa Caucuses - Winners and Losers

Winners

Trump

If you asked the Trump campaign what they wanted to happen before the caucus the answer would have been:

• Get more than 50% of the vote
• DeSantis comes in 2nd, taking away the “Haley momentum” story
• Win by the largest margin in Iowa Caucus history

Done… done… done… I do not see how anyone/anything can stop the Trump run for the nomination.

Ron DeSantis

By placing 2nd he lives to fight another day and has saved face to drop out in the future when he returns to Florida with his tail between his legs.

Iowa media

The news that $120 million was spent in Iowa is simply unbelievable. 

Joe Biden

Two reasons:

1. Joe Biden cannot beat Nikki Haley. He can beat Donald Trump. In the last few days Trump has given Democrats all the fodder we need to win in this cycle: Claiming with pride he gutted Roe v. Wade, dismantle Obamacare, dictator comment, etc. The ads write themselves.
2. The turnout in Iowa was only 107,000. That's pathetically weak turnout. 

There is no enthusiasm on my side for Joe Biden but it's hard to argue there is much enthusiasm for Trump beyond the MAGA base. 

Losers

Nikki Haley

Her big goal was to come in 2nd and claim this is now a 2 person race. Hillary was seriously wounded by coming in 3rd in 2008 in Iowa (Obama came in a powerful first and Jon Edwards beat Clinton by a few percentage points). Haley could go on to win New Hampshire and still will not be enough to make DeSantis drop out before South Carolina.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Spend $15 million of your own money to earn 8449 votes. That comes out to $1775 per vote. Vivek would have done better if he had staff at soup kitchens in Iowa offering patrons $500 to show up on caucus night. 

Caucuses

Only a little more than 100,000 people came out on Monday night. Those not from Iowa will blame it on the weather. Those from Iowa know cold weather stops nothing. Heavy snow? Yes Simply being cold? Nope.

Kim Reynolds

Historically, Iowa governors have remained neutral during the caucuses. Why? There is no upside in endorsing. She put her credibility on the line and got nothing for it. Iowa's Republican senators were smart enough to keep their powder dry. 

Bob Vander Plaats

Very happy my least favorite Iowan's endorsement of DeSantis didn't help. 

Republicans

Only 7% of the caucus goers were under 30.  That doesn't bode well for the future of the GOP.

Thoughts:

$120 million in spending means more than $1000 per vote. Contemplate that. 

These results have left me deeply depressed. Had the Haley campaign followed my suggestion of reaching out to Dems with nothing to do on Monday night she could have secured a 2nd place finish.

I wonder how Monday night could have different had Haley's campaign reached out to people like me: https://youtu.be/obf-VK7uwcI?si=JNWziHjk64EE0JPM