Why 2012 was good

In the post above I dwell too much on the negative.  2012 was a pretty good year because:

Friends:

My friends allowed me to join them on "date night" when I was back in March 2012.  

After getting screwed out of Egypt I took (an expensive last minute) trip back to the US for spring break.  It was what I needed.  I am really happy that I have great friends back home.

Mansour and me

On the trip to Canada there was a problem with one of the rooms so an Emirati student ended up sharing a room with me.  He was a former student and I liked him in class but after spending ten days with him as my roomy we became good friends.  The cultural divide runs deep here.  There are many Arabs who have westerners as friends but it is rare for good friendship to develop.

I also deepened a friendship with a guy from Morocco.  I hope to go with him back to Morocco for spring break. (I have no picture with him.  He really hates to have his picture taken.)

Lukas and me

Over the summer I went to Germany and saw Lukas.  He took me to the place where my great-great-grandfather left Germany 150 years ago.  It was an amazing trip and I am so grateful Lukas is my friend.

Sanjaya

Going back to Nepal to see my friend Sanjaya to close out the year was just what I needed.

Sanjaya procured a Coke apron for me!

2012 was also a good year in that nobody close to me died.  Also, I had a much easier time sleeping in the second  half of the year.  I could count the number of Ambiens I had in the last five months on one hand.

And ultimately, 2012 was a good year because I get paid well to do a job that I like and is really, really easy for me.  Standing in front of people and talking is more feared than death for most Americans; I live for it.

So I need to suck it up and move on.  2012 was not that bad and there are many reasons to believe 2013 will be better.

Phewa Tal

In 2003 I remember scoffing at cameras in cell phones.  "Why would anyone pay extra to get a crappy camera on their phone?"

I took this picture of Phewa Tal lake in Pokhara with my iPhone.  On this trip I didn't even take my Canon DSLR (big camera).  

e-mail of the day

From a colleague:

"It is always a pleasure and an owner to work with you."

My scary first attempt at having my beard colored

For National Day I wore a white kandoora (robe) and white guttera (head scarf).  Here I am with a colleague:

 My (American) boss saw that day and half-jokingly said I was too white to wear that.

So I decided to get my beard colored.

Now I must say, men coloring their beards here is as acceptable as women dying their hair in the US.

 I chose a light brown and as you can see this is NOT light brown!

Rather than simply apply the dye to the hair they literally paint it on the face.  I hope this picture troubles you as you try to sleep.  It does me.

I went home and spent 30 minutes washing with soap and reduced the painted on effect. 

I'm not a fan and I think 90% of westerners would not be a fan but my students universally liked it.  (And I've been teaching here long enough to know the difference between sucking up "liking" vs. real "liking.")

I recently tried the lightest shade of brown they had and I like it a little better.  It helped that he didn't try to paint it on my face.

Riding a zip-line down a mountain

Over the last two years they have been building the world's fastest and steepest zip-line in Pokhara.  It opened last summer.

 The zip-line starts at the top of a small mountain - like the green ones in background of this picture.  The beautiful Himalayas are off in the distance.

Here is the platform where they launch the passengers by two's.  The small net right in front of the gate has the opposite effect of reassuring anyone.

Here are some people going right before us.  As you can see the riders are quite well strapped in. A rope on the right can be pulled to slow you down if you should want.

It's easy to believe this is the world's steepest zip-line.  The first portion of it is at a dramatic angle.  They say you reach 140 KPH (85 MPH) but it didn't feel that fast.  Since we were so high above the trees the illusion of speed was just not there.

I paid for a picture package and video but my computers will not bring up the pictures... so here's a picture of Sanjaya at the very end.  (I'm off to the right.  I'm way behind him because I pulled the brake hard at the end.  I think Sanjaya coming in fast would have been more fun.)

And here we are having triumphantly conquered the zip-line.

I'm glad I did it because it was fun.  I might even do it again someday but compared to paragliding, the zip-line is almost boring.

Pokhara zip-line video

Not exactly exciting but here the view from a camera attached to my zip-line.  As you can see, it doesn’t really look like we hit 85 MPH.   We were so far above the trees that the sense of speed was just not there… It was still a lot of fun!

Hurricane Sandy

I want to return to regular blogging but I'm battling a cold I picked up at the end of my trip to Nepal.  That I got a cold was not a surprise; I've never traveled in buses and airplanes with more people sneezing and wheezing like I did on this trip.  It's remarkable that I didn't get the cold until day 15 - the last day - of the trip.

Anyhow, until I can get back to regular blogging here's the picture that oddly sends chills up and down my spine:

I have no idea why it has the effect on me it does.  Because I love roller coaster?  Because I picture trying to ride this one?  I don't know, but I do know that I find this haunting.

A fitting end to 2012

December 31 was an absolutely miserable day. Mostly un-noteworthy but highlighted by a seven eight hour bumpy bus ride from Pokhara to Kathmandu.  Just not fun. Today I am in Kathmandu with a Nepalese friend who has never seen the Monkey Temole or other cool places in Kathmandu. I hope 2013 starts better than 2012.

Nepal 2012

(Blogging is not easy on the iPad - typing in the virtual keyboard is slow.)

Shortly after arriving in Kathmandu I thought, "Uh-oh, thus trip was a mistake."  The skies were overcast and the temperatures in the low 40's and dropping fast in the late afternoon. I haven't become a total wimp in my time in the desert; I can handle these temps. The problem is that the hotels have no heating. As it fell to just above freezing I realized Sri Lanka with lows of 75 might have been a better plan.

I spent two unremarkable days in Kathmandu. The daytime weather was fine but the nights were cold and my hotel had no hot water. I went three days without a shower.

On my third day I took an early morning bus to Pokhara. The journey is just over 100 miles but it takes 7 hours over the winding paths up the mountains and the three stops for bathroom/eating.

Pokhara was also overcast and cold the day I arrived. This vacation was beginning to look like a major mistake.

Fortunately, I was greeted at the bus stop by the staff of the hotel.  It was a nice gesture for my travel weary state of mind. After reaching the hotel I realized I left my iPad on the bus. My friend Vikram got me back to the station quickly and the driver had it. I paid him 1000 rupees ($12). I think we were both happy.

The next morning the sun came out and it warmed up nicely. The daily pattern for the past week has been warm days - shorts and T-shirt weather followed by nights just above freezing. By late afternoon the temperatures start dropping like a rock. By bedtime I am covering with four blankets and have no desire to get out of bed until the sun comes out again.

This has been a laid back trip. I've already hit most of the touristy places on previous trips.  My friend Sanjaya and I visited a cave full full of bats and a Hindu monestary. We also climbed a mountain to visit a Peace Pagoda. (OK, "mountain" might be overstating it just a bit, but it felt like climbing a mountain.)

I also spent a day with my friend Vikram visiting Hindu temple that is built on a man-made island and we spent hours out on the lake watching the para gliders against the backdrop of the Himalayas.

The rest of the time I have been reading. I have completed four books about the 2012 election and I'm on my fifth. Spending two hours/day reading about politics for the past year was apparently not enough.

Christmas Eve was amazingly cool. The hotel guests and staff had a communal BBQ. A chef prepared lots of pork and chicken in a garlic, ginger, and red wine marinade.   Lots of food, lots of beer and good conversation. Very nice.

So a week has passed and I have a week to go in Nepal. So far, so good.

Be like Mike!

My friends Mike and Dawn love going to Vegas. They go almost every year and I think there have been years where they have gone more than once. They go other places, too, but they really like Vegas so they keep going back.

There's nothing wrong with that... Go where you know you will have a good time.

So I have NO IDEA why booking a trip to Nepal was so hard for me. I felt like it is a waste somehow given that I have never visited Beirut, Cairo, Thailand, etc.

And what makes it even dumber to get worked up?  I booked using airline miles. So the flight cost $40 in taxes and fees.

Anyhow, I am in Kathmandu. It is different than previous trips - 1. Cold, 2. It is low season for tourists.  I wanted to experience low season. So far it's not been good but I am looking forward to going to the (warmer) resort town of Pokhara tomorrow. Visiting my friend Sanjaya will be nice.

Traveling on narrow mountain pass roads on the last day of earth's existence may not be so wise...

National Day

For the UAE National Day I wore the traditional robe and head scarf as I have for the past two years.

In this picture I am with my friend Mansour.  (Mansour was with me on the trip to Canada last spring.)  For the record he's wearing the egal (headbands) and headscarf (guttra) the right way.  I am not.

My American boss saw me in this and said, "You are just too white for this combination."

I thought "He's right.  I'm one step away from being recruited by the klan."

So I went out and had my beard colored.

Pictures tomorrow.

Bowling

I said to a friend, "Last night, three Afghanis and I went to a bowling alley..."

She started to giggle.  I looked at her strange.

She said, "Oh, this is not the start of a joke?"

*****
Let me start over:  I appreciate getting to know my Afghani students.  These guys were born and raised in Afghanistan and were pre-teens when the US invaded.  They are from the northern part of the country which never really liked the Taliban so they were not upset to see the fall of the government.

Largely, however, we do not talk politics.  I have my thousand questions about their culture and they've been very patient answering them.

And then we went bowling.

It was my first time bowling in 20 years.  On my third and final game I broke 100.  I came in last but I was still doing my happy dance.  The guy in the black shirt was using a 15 pound ball and he literally threw it down the lane.  I said, "I'm surprised you don't get a strike every time.  If I were those pins I would jump to get out of the way!"

Lame Christmas party

I've hosted four Thanksgivings, four Christmas parties and three wine tastings in my time here.  I guess I was due for a lame party.  It wasn't bad - nobody yelled, nobody cried, nobody even said a discouraging word.  All of the guests will remain on Santa's "nice" list.

But it was just not a *good* party... and it is largely my fault.  I have new neighbors this year and I thought the idea of a joint party where we all leave our doors open and provide guests with the opportunity to mingle would be merry and festive.

It wasn't.  Guests seemed glued to the party they had been invited.  Those that did cross into another party did so timidly and cautiously asked permission.  Party fail.

Ann (who I knew would give it to me straight) said she had a great time because she had a chance to talk to some people she never gets to talk to but that the 3 party format just didn't work.  "I knew ____ was somewhere here because I saw her walk in but I didn't want to go hunt at the other parties to look for her."

******
My revelation:

Wine = Good.

Mulled wine = Great!

Mulled wine with orange juice?

Well, if I had it a restaurant the guy at the next booth would be asking to have what I'm having.

What happens when I pose life's questions on FB

Last night I posted a simple statement on Facebook:

A friend wanted something I had but was no longer using. He couldn't afford it so I gave it to him. Several months later he sold it. This bothers me but I don't know if it should. Opinions? Does it matter if the used item was worth $250?

I had no idea this would generate 50+ responses.  I so wish I could post a link to it here for the two blog readers who are not on FB, but hey Mike and Matt - get on FB!  

The initial responses were basically calling my friend an ingrate.  Then came a comment from a college friend who - like me - grew up reading Dear Abby.  Abby was adamant that a gift is a gift is a gift.  Once you have given it be happy for whatever joy/utility it brings to the person.  If that meant selling it, so be it.  Why not be happy for the person?

As the comments progressed more came along the "gift" lines.  Then my Republican friend Karey had to give me the low blow that this experience is slowing moving me to her side.

*****

The story condensed to just a few lines for FB is real.  It was not, however, the story of one person.  I could have written this about at least four - if not five - people here and several back in the US.  

So the issue is not the people I have given things to, but rather me:  Am I "that guy" who gives things and wants the constant thanks and reminders I gave it?  I sure hope not.  Do I give away too much?  Am I trying to compensate for the 10 year old me who had no friends?

In the past couple of years I have felt as comfortable and secure as I have at any point in my life... which is to say my bundle of insecurities have been contained.  Yet, these are moments where I think, "Oh, yeah, Mr. Confident?  You are still that child who doesn't look forward to recess because you fear not having any friends to play with."

*****

Tonight I received this text from a close friend who assumed my post was about him and.. well...

"I enjoyed reading 52 comments about what kind of person I am.  I don't get such a chance every day.  I will get money to you tonight and the remainder I owe I will get to you next week.  As always it is hard to tell how much I really owe you because you have done for me things that I can't estimate their value in money.  So I will pay you what I know you gave me and be thankful for the rest."

My heart sank.  We spent an hour messaging back and forth.  He made the point that he wished I had come to him before posting this on FB and I agreed he was right, but the issue was not really him but me.  I ended with:

The bottom line is that my life is better with you in it.  I think you feel the same way.  That's all that really matters. The rest we can work out later.

I like the idea of "paying it forward."  It is what parents do naturally for their children.  It is most certainly what Spellman did for me and hundreds of others.  If I can help a friend I need to see it as "paying it forward" and not get worked up about getting credit.

In other words, I need to be a better person.

Election recap

I predicted all 50 states right.  Someone really famous (in the world of geeks) also got all 50 states right:  Nate Silver, whose blog I read religiously.  I did not, however, copy him.  At the time I made my prediction I  think he still had Florida and Virginia going for Romney.  

The prediction that Obama would win 330-206 seemed like a gutsy call given that Gallup had Romney ahead several points among likely voters.  I'm not bragging; I was honestly scared on election day.  It seemed like O was headed for a landslide win but how could so many on the right be predicting a Romney win?

If I were a Republican I would be pissed.  It is one thing for a campaign to have false bravado to buck up the troops.  It's another thing to just be dead wrong in your internal polling.  In other words, I'd rather have my side lie to me and say, "We're gonna win!" rather than to be totally clueless.

Romney was so sure he was going to win that he had no concession speech?  Seriously??  The President's team was fairly certain of victory but they still had a concession speech in the can.

The most encouraging thing to me in the past few weeks is that the President is playing to his strengths in the negotiations on the poorly named "fiscal cliff."  It was his horrible performance in 2011 that gave me fear he would not be reelected. 

And it wasn't just the race for President... Gaining two seats in the Senate was unthinkable a year ago.  In the House, Democrats received more votes but Republicans still have the majority due to gerrymandering.  Pot legalized in two states.  Four states voted either for gay marriage or against a gay marriage ban.  

I'm proud to be an American.

2012 predictions

I predict Obama will win 332 electoral votes vs. 206 for Romney.  This would mean a sweep of almost all of the battleground states:  Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.  Romney will take North Carolina.

You can see the map here:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkGB

I am unsettled by the prediction of Colorado and Florida.  I wouldn't be surprised if Romney carried either or both.  I also think there is a chance Romney could pull a big upset in Pennsylvania.  The Philadelphia area - which votes heavily Democratic - was hit hard by the storm.  The good news is that Obama could lose all three and still win 274 - 264.

The senate will remain 53 - 47 (unchanged) for the Democrats and in the House Democrats will pick up 5-8 seats.  This prediction would be good news if true for the senate.  Only a few months it looked like Republicans would take over now that seems virtually impossible.  On the House side a pickup of 5-8 is a bit of a disappointment vs. expectations.

My map may seem more generous to the president than the last polls warrant.  Here's my reasoning:  1. There's been a subtle but real move towards the president nationally of 1-3 points since Sandy. 2.  The most recent national poll for NBC asked the undecideds about how they feel about Obama and Romney.  Obama was viewed far more favorably so it is reasonable to assume that if these people vote at all - which many won't... but if they do Obama should fare well.

If anyone else wants to make a prediction using 270towin.com e-mail or put it in the comments and I will place them here.

The best predictors for Obama

You can look at this summary of nine prognosticators who all predict an Obama win or...

You can listen to the right's two favorite pundits:  Karl "Turd Blossom" Rove and Dick "I love to suck the toes of my prostitute" Morris.  For quite a while both have been predicting a solid Romney win.

On Tuesday Dick Morris went further:  He predicted a landslide for Romney.  He even titled his story, "Here comes the landslide."  That's as definitive as it gets.  Romney not only wins, but he wins in a landslide that will sweep Republicans into a 53-47 control of the senate.

On Saturday he changes his tune with, "Sudden danger signs in polling.."  Umm, no.  Polling has been remarkably consistent.  At this point there's a point or two bump for a Obama in a few polls but nothing dramatic.

Now, Rove, too is saying the race has changed because of Sandy.

I do think Sandy was a game changer.  If I'm right the change was from a nail-biting win for Obama to a solid win for Obama.  It was never from "landslide Romney to win for Obama."

This if nothing but major CYA and nothing more.  And when Fox news' favorite guys for red meat are saying, "Uh-oh, things don't look so good anymore" you can believe them on this one.  They want to retain their jobs as pundits so to say at the last minute, "Oh, now the world is different" is just enough to keep their jobs.

Random campaign thoughts

First, the humorous:  Republican blogs and the Hannity Forum turned it up to 11 when they heard that Romney was up by 4 points in Pennsylvania.  (Pennsylvania is not considered a battleground.)  So Romney is winning a state that was considered safe for Obama!?! Wow!!

The real story?  The poll is two weeks old and was a Republican internal poll.  Not much to see here folks but it was nice to shine a glimmer of hope for them.

Second, there's a line from the first debate that haunts me.  In discussing health care proposals Romney said his plan covered pre-existing conditions.  The problem is that his plan doesn't.  It only covers pre-existing conditions if you have been continuously covered.

Why does this bother me so much?  Romney's attempt to appear moderate may actually convince someone who - like me - has pre-existing conditions to vote for him because Romney implied there is no difference.  Under Romney's plan I will not be able to buy insurance.  Under Obamacare I will be able to buy insurance in 2014.

There are lies and then there are cynical, terribly hurtful lies.  Telling 90% of those with pre-existing conditions that they will be covered when they won't is...  is...

I guess I don't have a word for it.

State of the race

Halloween - a day that is supposed to scare us - was the first day I have felt good since October 2, the night of the first debate.  Obama took a solid and consistent lead and drove it into the ground with a debate performance that I will never understand.

For most of the past month I have scared... scared of the chance that Romney will actually win.  Rasmussen has him up in national and state polls, but then again Rasmussen has a Republican bias.  Gallup, who I generally trust, has Romney up by 5 points in the national polls.  As I've said before, if Romney is really winning by 5 points the state polls don't matter; Romney is our next president.

So why did I finally feel good yesterday?  Here are the state polls from October 31:

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of Cincinnati)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Gravis)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (We Ask America)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Romney 45%, Obama 44% (University of Iowa)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 42% (EPIC-MRA)

North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44% (Roanoke)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (Marquette Law)

Obama doesn't need to win Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado or even Iowa to remain president.  By these polls Romney will have to run the table and win everything in sight to be the next president.

Like I said, I've not felt well about this election since the first debate.  At this point I'm not cocky; I'm still scared.  But my way of looking at the world is:  "Would I rather be in the other guy's shoes?"  As scared as I am, I'd rather be on my side given these polls.

Herman Cain, seriously?

I have been blogging for a little over four years and I've had posts disappear and reappear for no reason.  I was a little surprised tonight when I logged on saw the post right below this one.  I wrote it at least a year ago.

I have no idea what else to say.  I was going to delete the post below, but hey, since I don't write much anymore a post is a post so I will it stand.  :)