In Chuck We Trust?

To see the vlog version of this post: 

 

On May 4 the UAE was attacked by Iran for the first time in weeks. 

Oil refinery in Fujairah was hit.

This is a stunning pic of the oil refinery burning as an Emirates plane departs from DXB. 

The Project Freedom plan of the US is to have ships hug the coast of the Oman. The problem? This water is too shallow for giant container ships. (I've gone snorkel diving in here. I can't imagine giant ships trying to navigate this.)

Happy birthday to my former Teaching Assistant Omar Mabrouk. Omar is an Econ grad from UAEU and the first to be part of Omicron Delta Epsilon Econ honor society.

Speaking of economists...

I learned from the Smartless podcast today that Colin Jost was an Econ major at Harvard. As much as I love him on SNL, I can't imagine anyone seeing this kid and predicting he'd someday become a legendary cast member... and dear god, marrying Scarlett Johansen? Dude married UP!

In Presidential Succession the first to take over is the Vice President, followed by the Speaker of the House. Third in line is the President Pro Tempore of the Senate. As Trump was attacked at the White House Correspondent's dinner the designated survivor was Chuck Grassley. 

This has blown up on social media. Outrage that the 92 year old could be President. I don't get the outrage. I've never voted Chuck and I never will but I respect him. I'd rather have him as President than the guys ahead of him.

******

And finally... Happy Cinco Demayo. I have no tequila in my apartment so I hope you have a Margarita in my honor. 

Lessons from Star Wars

 May he the 4th be with you.

Hillary Clinton is often criticised for her book It takwes a Village. The right has a twisted taek that it undermines family values. Of course it doesn't but hypocricy is nothing new for the right

George Lukas made one successful movie before Star Wars: American grafitti His grand vision of a space opera a pipe dream. He got it made thanks to luckand creative geniuses around him. 

I Won't bore yoyu with details but anyone who sees Star Wars without the music knows how important John Willams' music is to the endeaour

The crawl at the beginning briefly explaining what's going on is thanks to Brian DePalma. 

And even more important was George's wife Marcia. Remember the climatic ending where you think the Moon of Yavin is going to be blown up? In seconds it's incinerated if the rebels aren't successful in blowing up the Death Star? That is thanks to Marcia Lukas, the Editor.

The Hollywood joke is that a movie is made three times: By the writer, the director, and the editor. When it comes to editors George married up. 

Trump has has created a village of grifters and idiots who do not remotely understand how little they know about Iran and its history. He is constantly proclaiming all the ways he has already won this war. At this point it's beyond TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). My president lives in an alternate reality and that scares the shit out of me. 

On Sunday he declared that all is good. The US military will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The problem? That's not enough. The Strait is a chokepoint. In Supply Chain terms it's a bottleneck. Miller sold more beer when it created a wide mouth can. Chokepoints and bottlenecks matter. 

 

Sunday Funnies

 "The gays" have a good sense of humor.

I really like George Hahn.

When will Lindsey come out? Or be outed?

Gender differences are real.

Shared by a former MAGA friend.

Eating at the trough of Crypto. Keep in mind CryptoBros spent more on the 2024 election than the defense industry and pharmaceutical industry combined. 

I am having major Taco Bell withdrawal.  

The best funny news? Trump is now more unpopular than he was after January 6.

Choose your Modality

We all learn and remember things in different ways. I can't remember why I walked into the next room. I have often looked for my car keys while they are in my hand. So to be clear, I' am not claiming to be a god on this subject.... but... I have a strangely bizarre memory. For anything that is in my deep knowledge I can remember exactly where I was and the circumstances where it happened. In talking to a bestie he said he couldn't remember my invite for him to fly from NYC to CR in the summer of 2014 with me picking up the expenses (he was a poor graduate student). He was like, really? "Yes," I replied, "I was in the basement of my house when I made the offer. It was the day after my Dad's funeral."

The point? Since we learn in different ways it's important to offer information in ways that work for anyone you are trying to teach. 

As a guy with 10K students from the UAE and several thousand in the US, the stories my former students tell me that they remember from my classes is my analogies, metaphors, my ways of breaking complex topics down to bite sized pieces. I'd add that I have a willingness to say "I have no frickin' clue" when hit with something I don't know. (My colleagues like to BS that they are experts on EVERYTHING.)

The main lesson I learned during Covid is that the choose your modality concept is real. You learn best by reading? Go for it! I gave students transcripts of my lectures. You are a visual learner? You have my videos. for those into audio they'd play it again before they slept. Nothing helps your memory better than studying before you sleep. 

***** 

For the next two weeks I will be making making my daily vlogs available on this blog  Is this a great idea? I have no clue. I can write almost as fast as I can type so let's see... 

Flunk Day

A tradition dating back to 1911, each spring the outgoing student body president at Coe College gets to to call Flunk Day. On Flunk Day all classes are canceled. Any papers due or scheduled exams pushed back to the next class. Flunk Day is a massive party and a great time is had by all - students, staff, and faculty.

Thirty-Five years ago I had the honor(?) of calling Flunk Day. As a budding weather geek I was excited by the prospect of calling off classes on a warm spring day. Unfortunately for me the weather didn't cooperate and a high of 59 on a sunny/blustery day is remembered negatively by my fellow Kohawks. It's safe to say the 1991 Flunk Day isn't remembered as the perfect weather Flunk Day I dreamed it would be. Because Iowa weather is unpredictable the 1990 Flunk Day ended with a massive storm spawning tornadoes that took out electricity for most of Cedar Rapids. I remember navigating my way back to campus with no working street lights on First Avenue. 

Unquestionably, the best Flunk Day weather was 1993. David Hayes lucked out. 90+ degrees. A porta-potty was tipped over with a guy in it. When he was freed from it, the TKE ran into the pond at Chapman's Fun World to wash off. When he emerged naked nobody cared or noticed because, well, quite a bit of alcohol had been consumed... and in the early 1990's not everyone had a camera on them.

Simpler times.

Another tradition of Flunk Day is the Flunk Day newspaper. For my year I asked former Coe Cosmos editor Denise Stade to write/edit mine. IMHO Denise produced the funniest paper in Flunk Day history.

The headline picture of the Cost Most was me dressed as Alfalfa from the Little Rascals. For the AOTT costume party Tony Alt dressed as the Church Lady. Tony was Vice President with me and then ran unopposed to replace me. I think that says something good about the job we did in office, but I digress...

Flunk Day is an awesome Coe tradition. I am happy I was able to be a part of it. :-)

Day of giving... day of gratitude

In the multiverse the chances of me ending up at Coe were low. My eyes were too bad to do the Air Force Academy so majoring in meteorology at Iowa State was my plan. Then I met Bill Spellman at Coe. I knew that day in the summer of 1985 that I was coming to Coe to major in Economics... but this post isn't about Professor Spellman. But it is about Coe.

I am not good at knowing when to express gratitude and who to thank. I am blessed with awesome mentors and besties. They know who they are... but have I made sure they know how much I appreciate them?

What about complicated relationships? The most complicated relationships in my world are with my siblings. The one year I worked with Upward Bound was enlightening. Stick with me here. I'll connect the dots.

Upward Bound is an awesome program that used to be run out of Coe College. I volunteered for them when I was student and came to work for them in the summer of 1993. I was excited to be in Voorhees Hall which had just been renovated so we had air conditioning in the summer. Previously they stayed in Greene Hall - my hall. As an RA I was the last to move out and my bestie's fiancée came and had a conversation with me while I was showering.  I later said to Rahul, "Well, you've never seen me naked but Audrey and I had a great conversation while I was washing up."

Connect the dots, Steve... connect the dots...

The students in Upward Bound come from crazy families. Hearing their stories made me realize that even though depression and substance abuse runs deep in my family - brother, aunt and uncle committed suicide - I actually had a pretty good childhood. None of us kids ever worried about a roof over our heads or food on the table. My cold distant German father made sure of that. Dad and I reconciled our differences before his death; for that I will always be grateful.

How is this connecting dots?

Although I was 39 before I truly understood Dad's philosophy when I did it hit me like a ton of bricks. He cried. I cried. Dad didn't cry. Again, his standard is cold German. 

You do your best for the people you love. 

Sounds simple, but we all know it's not. I've morphed his philosophy to "know who you will take a bullet for and walk it backwards." 

When my mentor Bill Spellman died then Coe President Jim Phifer said he admired the fierce loyalty of Billy's gang.  If you want more on that scroll back to an earlier episode of this vlog.

Land the plane, Steve, Land the plane.

I can't buy stock in Coke because I want to love the product and not be upset at the stock price. 

The best addition to Facebook was the "it's complicated" feature to describe relationships.  That's me with Coe College. As much as I love the place they've also screwed me over, more than once. They also screwed over a few other people I'd take a bullet for so... yeah... it's complicated.

What's different now? None of those people are in power. The guy in charge... the President of the college is my friend Dave Hayes. Dave is a good man. I could give you a thousand reasons why I know that it is true but I won't. Simply know I cried with joy when he was promoted. I felt the better about my alma mater than I have felt in decades. 

As a fellow member of the Dismal Science (it's what we economists like to call ourselves we are part of a club. For those of us in the club... the ones taught by Spellman, Wu, and Vaidy there is a bond.

Seriously, Kranz, land the fracking plane.

Today is Coe's day of giving. It is with gratitude and love for my alma mater that I am happy to give back. It is an institution facing tremendous headwinds but it made me the man I am today so thank you Coe. 

The road not traveled

The tl;dr -I often ponder the road not taken.

I grew up as a #MissouriSynod #Lutheran. This is the most conservative branch of #Lutheranism. Women aren't allowed to touch money and #EarthDay is evil because the earth is here to serve us. To celebrate Earth Day is tantamount to creating a false idol. In 8th grade Pastor Mueller took me aside and asked if I would consider becoming a Lutheran Minister. My answer was a definitive NO. 

My earliest childhood besties were all #Catholic. I won't tag them but if they read this, they know who they are... I admired the Catholic Church's commitment to the poor and downtrodden. Specifically, I admired the #Jesuits. They are dedicated to making the world a better place.

In Lutheranism you are confirmed in the faith at 14 and you're given a #Biblical quote the Pastor has chosen specifically for you. Mine? Matthew 19:30 "But many who are first (on earth), shall be last (in heaven). Many who are last will be first." I am not sure what message Pastor Mueller meant for me but it's a quote I remember. 

#PopeFrancis, the most famous Jesuit, was asked by a shy boy if his non-believing father was in heaven. Despite his lack of faith the father had all four children baptized. The Pope asked the crowd assembled if God would abandon a man who cared so much for his children. "NO!" the crowd yelled back. 

I considered becoming a Jesuit Priest for my final professional act on this planet.

****

Journalist John Dickersen, formerly anchor of the CBS Evening News now at the Atlantic, recently interviewed Father James Martin. Father Martin wrote, "Work in Progress: Confessions of a Busboy, Dishwasher, Caddy, Usher, Factory Worker, Bank Teller, Corporate Tool, and Priest". He undersells himself as a corporate tool; as a graduate of Wharton School of Business at U Penn? He had to have been pretty amazing to have simply gained admission.

As a Jesuit Priest Father Martin is a man of the cloth who understands the real world better than anyone. He is not a raging Commie like the Missouri Synod views Catholics. He is decidedly pro-capitalism.  President George W. Bush liked to extol the virtues of "Compassionate conservatism." I doubt Father Martin considers himself a conservative, but I digress. 

Father Martin had a #CrucibleMoment while working at #GeneralElectric, specifically #GECapital. For more on Crucible Moments I refer you to a book written by Professor James Kelley. Father Martin, "When we are more vulnerable, God is able to break in."

"I'm a Jesuit who happens to be a writer. So I'll write maybe an hour or two in the morning... I find it a pleasure. Why is that? Well, first of all, I don't have to make a living off of it. So if the book does well, great, if it doesn't do well I am still going to eat. Second, I don't consider myself a writer. I'm a Jesuit who happens to write. And, third I have another job... I am not an academic writer so I don't have to worry about it being well reviewed or peer reviewed... Finally, I can write about what I want to write about. So I'm really lucky. I mean, since the money goes to the Jesuits... I never have writer's block... it was a total joy." 

Father Martin Founded Outreach Ministries. You can find him on X as @JamesMartinSJ. John Dickersen can be found on #Threads as @JDickersen. 

You can find me considering becoming a Jesuit.

Mentors and grief

We all process grief in different ways. That's to be expected when talking about a loved one. It's definitely more complicated when it's the mentor who you would have given your life for without hesitation.

February 19 was Dr. William Spellman's birthday. When he died I was honored his wife Donna allowed me to give the eulogy. I later had to explain to my Dad why connection to Bill was beyond friendship, beyond family... but that's a story for a different podcast. 

Linkedin is platform dedicated to nonstop performative congratulations.

Fortunately, the algorithm has learned that what I want to see is my fellow professionals sharing insightful information or helping others advance their careers. That's why I am on this platform.

My message here? I am lucky; my mentor knew how much I loved him before he died. 

My request to anyone reading this? Reach out to your mentor and make sure they know how much they meant to you. Having me around him was meaningful for him but trust me on this, he needed to hear from others who loved him half as much as I did. A few messages from previous mentees would have made Bill's last few months 1000x better.

Boycott

 The best FB feature was the addition of the “It’s complicated” when it comes to relationships. 

ProfG, the NYU Stern School of Business, is an amazing man and he’s also a self-absorbed prick. Just ask him.

Fall 2020 the podcast he hosts with Kara Swisher began blowing up. He said in an episode, “Kara, do you realize we are #6 in the UAE?” 

I sent him a message, “Hey ProfG, ProfS here. The reason you’re #6 is that this country is not into podcasts and I am making hundreds of my students listen to Pivot.”

****

Like me, Scott was triggered by the events in Minneapolis. Seeing Alex Pretti assasinated made me lose my shit. If you’ve seen Requiem for a Dream, when the addict can’t get enough dope they start tweaking and the screen fritzes. I went almost 60 hours without sleep so I was seeing the fritzing. BTW, my brother died from heroin. So yeah, it’s a drug I will never do, but I digress.

*****

Scott has created a website: https://www.resistandunsubscribe.com/

Scott believes the only way to get the Tech Oligarchy to pay attention is to do a temporary boycott - the month of February. Find ways to reduce your addiction to them and they will wake up. See Jimmy Kimmel for proof.

How do I know this can work? I’ve been trolling Apple CEO Tim Cook on X on this topic and he blocked me. A man I deeply admire for rewriting the rules for Supply Chain took the time to see what I wrote and blocked me. Fascinating.

Again, my relationship with Scott is complicated. For the purpose of this mission? He and I are on the same page. Find a way to be part of the #resistance. If it scares you to think you may be losing some of your favorite shows? Send me a DM. I can hook you up. - Steve

My first CAFAA meeting

"Hi my name is Steve and I'm an addict."

"Hi Steve!"

"It's been 2 hours since my last drink. Over the last year I've come to realize how addicted I am. I tried cold turkey. I tried weaning myself off. Nothing has worked. It's cost me productivity, relationships with friends, and more hours of sleep than I can count. No matter what I do I simply can't shake it. That's why I am here today."

*******

I have an addictive personality. It's why I have never tried cocaine. I would love to try it but a friend said, "You do it once and you'll be stealing from your Momma within weeks."

The addiction I thought would be my ruin was alcohol. Then again, I'm not dead... yet so alcohol may well prove to be my arch nemesis. 

For today? Today I have come to grips with the fact that I can never safely have another Coke Zero. While that may seem like no loss let me tell 'ya... if God said, "Ok, for the rest of your life you are able to consume alcohol or caffeine without any side effects. You choose which."

I'm grabbing a pot of coffee and dumping a 2 liter of Coke Zero in it.

*******

I've ridden the caffeine roller coaster for decades. When I get too addicted I could go turkey, feel like shit for three days and start the fourth day with a pot of Columbia's best. Rinse and repeat.

I'm also an insomniac. For years I blamed it on my aunt Ruth taking to see the movie Coma. A 9 year old shouldn't watch people be induced into comas to harvest their organs. "Nighty-night. It's ok Steve, nobody will do this to you..." I saw it again a few years back and it is awful. Some movies don't hold up over time, but I digress..,

Anytime an insomniac tells someone of their affliction the response is a list of home remedies. They mean well, but in the age of google there is nothing they can offer me that I haven't already tried.

Obviously there is a link to caffeine and like most people I became more sensitive as the years went by:
Late 20's - no coffee after 12
Mid-30's - no coffee after 12, no Coke Zero after 4
Mid-40's - no coffee after 10, no Coke Zero after 2
Mid-50's - one cup of coffee, no Coke Zero in the afternoon
57? - No sleep for Steve if drinks more than one Coke Zero

*******

In all previous google searching I had not read of anyone reaching this level of caffeine sensitivity. It turns out that I'm not alone but it's very rare. I'm sad but not angry. Realistically, all those years of drinking a dozen full corn syrup Cokes per day should have given me diabetes. I dodged a bullet there. 

So don't cry for me Argentina but the next time you enjoy an icy Coke Zero on a hot day think of me drinking shitty Diet Caffeine Free Coke. I want to wish you well and I want a fly to land in your drink.

*****

Scratching your head wondering why the post is titled CAFAA? I didn't realize there was a group for my fellow caffeine addicts... until today. Say hi to the newest member of https://caffeineaddictsanonymous.org/

Joking... I despise 12 step programs but that's a story for another day.

Life is weird.

Jealousy

All names except mine have been changed to protect the innocent.

I've never understood jealousy in romantic relationships. (In friendships I can maybe see it and for successful enemies I totally understand jealousy.) 

Robert, my friend and pledge son, once dated a stripper. If anyone should feel insecure it is a guy whose girlfriend gets paid to dance naked in front of ogling men. I asked him how it made him feel. "It's great! These guys throw money at her and at the end of the night she comes home to have sex with me."

His gf told me one of my favorite jokes: "Strip clubs are where men get fucked but do not get laid." 

*****

I was in a relationship with someone way above my pay grade. Most of her friends were men so if I were the jealous type I guess I should have been but I wasn't. Why? Because I am fricking hilarious and who can beat that???

Seriously, I wasn't jealous of her male friends because I knew if she wanted to date them there was nothing I could do about it. Me being jealous is a wasted emotion.

*****

Str8 friend Matt reached out for advice. He has a good gay friend who is in a serious relationship. 

Matt: My friend
Travis: Matt's gay friend
Chad: Travis' jealous boyfriend

Matt: Sooo I need your advice on something… Remember my gay friend Travis that I mentioned the other day? He’s engaged, and we’re really good friends. We hang out sometimes. But his fiancé isn’t happy about it, and it led to a big argument between them a couple of nights ago. Matt has reassured his fiancé that I’m straight and dating women, but he’s still feeling jealous and uneasy. Now, Matt wants me to talk to his fiancé in the hope that might smooth things over. What do you think I should do?

Steve: Jealousy is something I’ve never understood in a relationship… and this is where guys - str8 and gay - fuck up way more than women. 

The nice polite response is to reassure him that you’re str8 and you are not a threat to him at all.
👆that is what I would do ONCE to reassure him. 

If the jealousy persists then I’d confront the elephant in the room.

“Chad, why do you worry about others stealing him away? What is so lacking in your physical or mental being that you worry about this?”

******

You've read my advice. What advice would you have given?

*****

It's worth noting that my pledge son didn't marry the stripper. The woman he married had an affair with one of his employees. In a meeting with his small company, Robert looked at the guy and asked, "Are you going to stop fucking my wife?" To his credit, Robert didn't fire him and didn't punch him. He was divorced not long after. 

Cujo made a friend

Cujo has always wanted to make friends with a cat. I created an instagram account for him called #CujoNeedsAFriend (A play on a podcast Conan O'Brien needs a friend.)

Alas, no cat has been willing to tolerate him until...

We found Kitty on a late-night walk. She was indifferent to a very hyperactive Cujo. I picked her up to take her to a communal cat feeding place (the neighborhood has several places where people leave food and water for feral cats). Kitty purred contently as I carried her. 

Kitty ate and drank some. When another cat approached in a menacing way Cujo tried picking Kitty up to carry her to safety. I scared the big cat away but was amazed that Kitty was not upset at having a dog drag her away.

I decided to bring her home and gave her fresh food and water of which she drank some. I set up a little bed for her right next to the water/food and hoped to go to sleep. Kitty followed me and was remarkably able to climb up the couch. Remarkable because she is unbelievably tiny. 

Cujo groomed Kitty by licking her all over. I have never seen a dog imitate a cat this way but Kitty didn't seem to mind. Kitty purred non-stop as the two of them sat on my lap. 

For sleep, Kitty perched on my shoulder while Cujo made sure he was very close. Kitty purred and seemed very content.

In the morning I put Kitty right next to the food and water but she didn't drink or eat. She returned to the couch and came back to my lap with Cujo beside her. After awhile I left to do other things and Cujo/Kitty spent time wrapped up together.

Mid-afternoon Kitty went from the couch to under an end table. Cujo barked and fussed trying to get her come out.

Cujo took up a spot next to the end table.

A few hours later Cujo checked in on her and began to whine. "Uh-oh," I thought as I moved the end table to find Kitty had passed away. I dug a up a spot nearby, wrapped Kitty in tissues and buried her. Cujo realized he had lost his friend and became very mopey. 

 The next day Cujo went to check on her.

Later that day Cujo went roaming off leash while I added more dirt and improved the burial place for Kitty. When Cujo returned he didn't jump up to join me on the couch but simply sat at my feet before returning to his bed. He gave off several whimpers and I felt very bad for him. When I went to take him for a walk later I noticed that Cujo was injured. 

On his walk he must have been caught up in a wire or something. He has a laceration that almost circles his front paw. Since then Cujo has had no desire to go for a walk. When I insisted last night he walked right next to me and when I said "Home" he turned right back to the apartment. I can't tell if his lethargy is due to being hurt or losing Kitty. Probably, a bit of both.

Why Selzer is the best pollster

 Most pollsters go into creating a poll with a demographic model. The population has X% of 65 and older and Y% of them vote traditionally. This is a reasonable method if things are the same from one election to another.

Selzer says she goes in without any model. She allows the numbers tell the story. In 2016, her method predicted Trump was going to win by 7. (He won by 9.) Her poll was the canary in the coal mine. Iowa is demographically similar to Wisconsin and Michigan. If Trump wins Iowa by 7 then there is a decent chance he could win those states as well, which he did.

I came appreciate Selzer as a genius in the 2008 Iowa caucus.

Take yourself back to the cold days of January 2008. Democratic top tier candidates are all Senators: Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, and Barack Obama. By December it's down to 3 - Clinton, Edwards, and Obama.

Who is going to win is answered by answering, "How many Iowans will the winning candidate need to win?"

Previous caucus attendance:

• 2000 Caucus: 61,000 Iowans
• 2004 Caucus: 124,000 Iowans

All campaigns agreed attendance would increase in 2008. Perhaps 160,000 or maybe even 180,000 will show up. Clinton's well run campaign was confident they had 60k voters locked up. In a 3 way race this would be enough to win. Edwards campaign was equally confident. (Although I was on Obama's team I had good friends the other camps and we were honest with each other about what we were hearing.)

Then came the final Selzer poll that jolted all of the campaigns. Here two big predictions: Obama is going to win by 7 points and the turnout will be around 220,000.

My Clinton friend said they had no problem disregarding the poll as a whale of an outlier: The data didn't match anything their field operation was seeing and it is preposterous to believe 100,000 more Iowans would caucus in 2008 than in 2004. 

Selzer's premise was that other pollsters were polling those like me who had caucused before. Two massive groups were being missed: Young people and disaffected Republicans. (There is a saying in politics, "Candidates who rely on the youth vote cry on election night.") Caucuses are a serious time commitment of 2-3 hours and most young people won't do it.

Because it is a lot of work to caucus there was no reason to believe Republicans and Independents would make the effort. It was bold of Selzer to predict these groups would turn out in massive numbers. 

Result?

239,000 Iowans came out to caucus in 2008. Nobody - not even the Obama campaign - predicted turnout that high. 

• 38% Obama
• 30% Edwards
• 29% Clinton

Selzer not only blew every other pollster out of the water but she had a better feel for the electorate than the internal campaign numbers.

******

Selzer is hardly a Democrat pollster. Her 2016 prediction of a 7 point Trump win was a massive wake-up call that Clinton was in danger in blue wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan. In 2014, there was a close Senate race to replace Tom Harkin. Selzer's last poll accurately predicted that Republican Ernst would win it comfortably.

******

Because Selzer randomly calls every number she is able to get a pool of voters other pollsters won't get. In 2008 pollsters only dialed registered Dems. Some only dialed registered Dems with a history of going to the caucus. Quite simply, they missed the new/young voters and the Republicans and Independents. Her method costs quite a bit more but has proven to be more accurate. 

2024 Electoral College prediction

This is my conservative map. The Selzer poll highlights the reasons I believe she will win. In Iowa 10% of self-identified Republicans are voting for Harris. Republicans have been excited about the early voting numbers but those good numbers are off of 2020 where Trump explicitly told his voters not to vote for early. Also, Selzer believes there are two groups being undercounted in other polls: Young women and elderly women. 

As more than one pundit has put it: An early way to know who is going to win is to look at the gender gap. If Harris wins women more than Trump wins men she will win. Why? More women turn out to vote than men.

Organizing matters. Republicans relied on outside groups funded by Elon Musk to go door knocking. They turned in great numbers! Unfortunately for them, the workers learned how to game the system. They spent the day in the coffee shop pretending to knock on doors. A Republican operative in North Carolina said that he sees Harris canvassers out every day but has yet to see one for Trump. That is worth at least a point or two or three (and it's why I am giving NC to Harris even though polls have it a slight Trump edge).

I think enthusiasm matters. I watched the final speech Kamala gave in Pennsylvania and Donald gave Grand Rapids, Michigan. His crowd was smaller and tired. He was so far off his A game that I almost felt sorry for him. Kamala's was like a rock concert. 

What would an optimistic map look like? Harris wins Georgia and Arizona. 

November 1

I am overwhelmed by the people trying to help me back home. It is very much appreciated and if I knew a way you could help I would gladly accept it. The best way you can help? Let's have a conversation. I do not have international minutes so it's either Google Meet or Zoom. For the conversations I have had, Google has been working better. 

This was not a great week but I know I put in more miles walking than I have any week this year because as the weather has cooled Cujo wants to go and go and go. I am surprisingly calm about the election. I always ask myself, "Would I rather be on my side or theirs?" Let's just say I am nauseously optimistic.

What made the week a bad week is that I have no good news on the matters concerning my residency, passport and employment. Not moving the ball on those issues is distressing.

******

Anniversaries are on my mind. Ten years... Ten years... Ten years ago last week my friend Sanjaya lost his Dad in an accident. Ten years ago we put the farm up for auction. 

1994 and 2004 were also bad years for reasons not worth going into now. 

Not all years that end with a 4 have been bad. In 1984 I turned 16. Growing up on a farm, a driver's license is the ticket to freedom. Being born on September 16 (hours past Iowa's cutoff date for school entry) meant I was one of the older kids in the class of 87. 

Had I been born a day earlier and been in the class of 86 I am certain my life would have been different. Why? The 86 class was the... underachiever class. The class of 87 was the opposite. We were competitive on everything. I definitely fit in better with 87 classmates. 

2006 redux?

I have battled depression a few times in my life. 2005-06 were very dark days for me. I was doing something I loved; teaching, and more importantly, teaching students who very much wanted to learn because they want a decent job. (As opposed to teaching at my alma mater. I love my time at Coe but I was able to have a much bigger impact at Hamilton than I could have had at Coe.)

Unfortunately for me, my direct supervisor Linda jumped ship. I loved working for her. To have a department chair you trust 100% is gold. After that I was adrift working at a place where the woman running the place is/was an insecure person who took out her fears on those who worked for her. When the movie "Bad Bosses" came out it was difficult to watch because I had worked for someone was evil incarnate. When she was finally fired by the parent company literally dozens of former Hamilton/Kaplan employees and students commented on my wall. Because everyone knew she was my nemesis they came to my wall. For me, it was karma.

In 2006 my birthday was on a Saturday. For a Saturday birthday I think you are obligated to do something fun. I was in such a low functioning state that I couldn't put together anything to see/do with anyone for that birthday. 

I do not know if this is a repeat of 2006 but I do know that like 2006 I have not done a good job of keeping in touch with the people who have shown me love and support. 

My sincere hope is that those who care about me will continue to care about me regardless of how I act in the next couple of months. 

2024

I have had several friends reach out in the past few weeks so I hope to summarize the year to answer most questions.

This has not been a good year physically or emotionally. Physically, I developed gout in March making it hard to walk. For almost 2 months it was difficult to walk and for a few days I could not put any weight on right foot. On the positive side, I lost a lot of weight. Hitting a low of 156 pounds (71 kg), I have gained a healthy 10 pounds back. I also pretty much eliminated caffeine and alcohol. (Eliminating alcohol coincided with the onset of gout. Since gout is often caused by alcohol consumption I thought staying off t was a good idea.) In the past few months I've met friends for coffee or beer, so again, not being an absolutist on this.

Emotionally, I have felt isolated. As an extroverted person I need time in and around lots of people. Not having that is not good. 

The bottom line is that I am OK. Not great, but OK. I do need to talk more with friends and recharge my extrovert battery so I am happy to talk via zoom or google meet if anyone has free time. 

Let's talk drugs

It is winter of '77. My brother Mark is a freshman in HS. On his way to school he took some drugs that left him not only tripping but violently so. 

We got a call to come get him. Mom asked Miriam to drive as we loaded up in the station wagon. The principal and another man had to hold Mark as my sister drove us up to the hospital in Vinton. 

I brought up this memory to my sister a few weeks ago. (I hadn't remembered that she was the driver.) What neither of us know to this day: What drugs was he on? How on earth did he access those drugs as a freshman at Benton Community? (To those not familiar, BC is a rural very white, very middle class, no gangs school district.)

That Mark impacted my life is an understatement. As he was 8.5 years older than me I didn't know him well but all who knew both of us compared us as being very alike. (The same principal named above was my 8th grade math teacher and called me Mark pretty much every day.) 

When I was in HS we all knew a few potheads. Beer was absolutely the drug of choice of my generation. Although I've made up for it since then, the one beer I drank in HS was at our senior skip day when my classmate Jeff insisted. 

This brings me to several questions:

What was Mark on that would send him on a bad trip? Did he mix acid with something? What are the drugs that today's teenagers are on? 

When I was teaching at Hamilton I had several BC grads in my classes and was surprised that they said they really never drank alcohol; it was pot... pot... and more pot... but that was 15 years ago so🤷?

Exit polls - US vs. Germany

Exit polls are conducted by a joint operation of many media organizations and the campaigns. 

Late in the afternoon on election day 2004 the results were clear: John Kerry was winning in Florida and enough key battleground states. Campaign manager Bob Shrum greeted Senator Kerry with, "Congratulations Mr. President-elect."

Ooops.

It turned out the exit polls were wrong. While 2004 was close, George Bush secured the popular vote AND the electoral vote. (2004 is the only year Republicans have won the popular vote since 1988. Our messed up Electoral College system is a story for a different post.)

Bottom line: Exit polls, when tallied and adjusted for demographic data, are very accurate but that analysis takes days to process. Nobody in American media is calling an election on the afternoon of election day.

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Germany held an election in the state of Bradenberg yesterday. Immediately after the polls closed the media announced the ruling party edged the far right party. It was stated with confidence. The numbers initially reported:

SDP: 31%

AfD: 30%

(To confused Americans, in a parliamentary system, winning with 1/3 of the votes is common.) 

There was no doubt to the result. No waiting until all the votes had been counted. Today I read the final tally:

SDP: 30.9%

AfD: 29.2%

So, it ended up being almost a 2 point win. 

My question: How/why was the media so confident after polls closed when the exit polls were so close?

Peter Thiel

This is a follow-up post and mostly written for Lukas. To everyone else, simply understand that you would have never have heard of JD Vance if it weren't for Peter Thiel. Seriously.

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Elon Musk: I support free speech! Unless it is speech mocking me. 

His buddy Peter Thiel (fellow founder of PayPal, early investor in Facebook) took this to a new level. He supports free speech but when the Gawker outed him as gay he made it his passion in life to bring down the tabloid website... for which he succeeded by bankrolling Hulk Hogan's lawsuit against the site forcing them into bankruptcy. 

He is an early investor in a company that has cataloged all faces and is used by police (ok, I guess) to identify people and by private companies like Madison Square Garden to keep out any unwanted guests (bordering on Minority Report creepy).

It's safe to say, I'm not a fan but I thought I'd give him another chance so I watched this interview from a few days ago. 

There are three main segments.

1. Politics. His libertarian/right-wing politics don't match with mine so it is not surprising that I didn't agree with him much in this section. Still, I expected worse. 
2. AI and tech. There is nothing newsworthy in this section. He compared the AI bubble to the dot-com bubble and observed that the valuation of Nvidia is greater than the total revenue generated by AI. Nothing he said was provocative.
3. Higher education. This was by far the most interesting section. I found myself agreeing with most of his points (shocker). Thiel was repeatedly goaded into saying the government should offer no support to higher ed by the libertarian panel and he didn't take the bait. 

Bottom line: I still don't agree on much but it was worth my time to hear his opinion.