2012 predictions

I predict Obama will win 332 electoral votes vs. 206 for Romney.  This would mean a sweep of almost all of the battleground states:  Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Florida.  Romney will take North Carolina.

You can see the map here:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkGB

I am unsettled by the prediction of Colorado and Florida.  I wouldn't be surprised if Romney carried either or both.  I also think there is a chance Romney could pull a big upset in Pennsylvania.  The Philadelphia area - which votes heavily Democratic - was hit hard by the storm.  The good news is that Obama could lose all three and still win 274 - 264.

The senate will remain 53 - 47 (unchanged) for the Democrats and in the House Democrats will pick up 5-8 seats.  This prediction would be good news if true for the senate.  Only a few months it looked like Republicans would take over now that seems virtually impossible.  On the House side a pickup of 5-8 is a bit of a disappointment vs. expectations.

My map may seem more generous to the president than the last polls warrant.  Here's my reasoning:  1. There's been a subtle but real move towards the president nationally of 1-3 points since Sandy. 2.  The most recent national poll for NBC asked the undecideds about how they feel about Obama and Romney.  Obama was viewed far more favorably so it is reasonable to assume that if these people vote at all - which many won't... but if they do Obama should fare well.

If anyone else wants to make a prediction using 270towin.com e-mail or put it in the comments and I will place them here.