This is my conservative map. The Selzer poll highlights the reasons I believe she will win. In Iowa 10% of self-identified Republicans are voting for Harris. Republicans have been excited about the early voting numbers but those good numbers are off of 2020 where Trump explicitly told his voters not to vote for early. Also, Selzer believes there are two groups being undercounted in other polls: Young women and elderly women.
As more than one pundit has put it: An early way to know who is going to win is to look at the gender gap. If Harris wins women more than Trump wins men she will win. Why? More women turn out to vote than men.
Organizing matters. Republicans relied on outside groups funded by Elon Musk to go door knocking. They turned in great numbers! Unfortunately for them, the workers learned how to game the system. They spent the day in the coffee shop pretending to knock on doors. A Republican operative in North Carolina said that he sees Harris canvassers out every day but has yet to see one for Trump. That is worth at least a point or two or three (and it's why I am giving NC to Harris even though polls have it a slight Trump edge).
I think enthusiasm matters. I watched the final speech Kamala gave in Pennsylvania and Donald gave Grand Rapids, Michigan. His crowd was smaller and tired. He was so far off his A game that I almost felt sorry for him. Kamala's was like a rock concert.
What would an optimistic map look like? Harris wins Georgia and Arizona.
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