Friday, October 19, 2012

Polling mania

Yesterday Gallup had Romney up 52-45 among likely voters.  

The state polls of the swing states show Obama winning enough swing states to win the electoral college.  In fact, he could lose a few where he is a few points ahead and still get over 270.

Yesterday NBC News/Marist had a poll in Iowa showing Obama up 51-43.  
Today PPP (considered reliable) has a poll with Romney up 49-48.

Wow.  I'd be happy to take the average of these two polls and say Obama is up 49-46.

In 2004 I scored 48 out 50 states right.  The two states I missed were Ohio and Iowa.  Iowa.  My state and I got it wrong.  Bush won Iowa that year by .6% and Ohio by 1.1%.  

Bottom line:  If Gallup is right and Romney is leading 6-7% in the nation the electoral college won't matter, Romney is president.  If it is more like a 2% race either way than each state counts and all eyes have to be on Ohio.  As much as I love Iowa, I just can't see a path to victory for Romney that doesn't include Ohio.


1 comment:

  1. Hey - are you voting this time? Did you get your ballot? - Denise

    ReplyDelete